Remember last season when two teams from the NL Central played each other in the NLCS? Well, two free agent departures later, the NL Central has turned into what's probably baseball's weakest division. It might take only 88-89 wins to win the division, and it should be a wide open race between three teams. The other three have absolutely no shot at contending. Two of them would have trouble beating a good Triple-A team.
1. Cincinnati Reds-With Albert and Prince now applying their trade in the AL West, the best first baseman in the National League is Joey Votto. The Reds won the division in 2010, then finished a disappointing third last season. But while Milwaukee and St. Louis both suffered some pretty significant losses during the offseason, Cincinnati didn't. In fact, the Reds got better, trading for the Padres' Mat Latos to be their No. 1 starter. With Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo, that's three quality starters. And word is that they want Aroldis Chapman to be a starter this season. Imagine facing that guy three times a game? With Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, Dusty Baker also has the option of putting Chapman back in the bullpen. Closer Frank Francisco went to Toronto as a free agent, but never fear. Former Phillie Ryan Madson, who's much better than Francisco, has arrived to fill that role. And we all know they're going to hit. Votto's obviously the man, but Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips can flat rake, too. Bringing in Ryan Ludwick gives them another veteran bat in the middle of the lineup, and his defense in left field should be an upgrade over Jonny Gomes, who was a DH playing for a National League team. From what I've heard and read, rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco is the real deal. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts on Opening Day. My only slight problem with Cincinnati's lineup is Drew Stubbs, who's not a leadoff hitter, in the leadoff spot, but that's minor. The Reds are the class of a weak division. They're not goign to run away with the division title, but I'd be surprised if they're not playing in October.
Lineup: Drew Stubbs-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Scott Rolen-3B, Ryan Ludwick-LF, Zack Cozart-SS, Ryan Hanigan-C
Rotation: Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey
Closer: Ryan Madson
Projected Record: 89-73
2. St. Louis Cardinals-I don't know if you heard, but Albert's not on the Cardinals anymore. It's still a little inconceivable to picture him in a different uniform, but I digress. St. Louis looks to defend a World Series title without two of the most important figures from last year's championship run. Future Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa retired, and the reins were handed to former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny, who's never managed at any level. Regardless, even without the Big Guy, St. Louis is in position to contend in this division this season. Lose Albert? No big deal. We'll just go out and get Carlos Beltran. Beltran's no Pujols (no one is), but he's a veteran bat that could help fill that massive void in the lineup. Plus, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and David Freese, the new Face of the Franchise, all return. In a weak division, the Cardinals have a good enough lineup to contend for a playoff berth. But perhaps their biggest offseason addition is a guy who was already on their payroll--Adam Wainwright. Think about it. The Cardinals won the World Series despite not having their best starting pitcher for the entire season. With Wainwright back, Chris Carpenter won't have to throw the ridiculous number of innings he did last season. Having both of them makes the Cardinals' rotation much more formidable. I'm nervous about Jason Motte as the closer, though. Even still, the Cardinals are capable of winning 87-88 games this season. And that might be enough to win the division.
Lineup: Rafael Furcal-SS, Skip Schumaker-2B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Matt Holliday-LF, Lance Berkman-1B, David Freese-3B, Yadier Molina-C, John Jay-CF
Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook
Closer: Jason Motte
Projected Record: 87-75
3. Milwaukee Brewers-The Milwaukee Brewers were one of the best stories in baseball in 2011, winning their first division title in nearly 30 years. The 2012 season is going to be a little different. Prince Fielder's gone, and they almost lost Good Old Boy Ryan Braun to a 50-game steroid suspension before he got off on a technicality. They're trying to replace Fielder at first base with Mat Gamel, a quadruple-A player. As for the "protection" behind Braun, that job falls to Aramis Ramirez, who's making the rounds in the NL Central. I'm not even sure the type of numbers Braun's going to be able to put up. His Golden Boy image is gone, and he's going to hear the boos everywhere but Milwaukee. Add that to the pressure of having to carry a Prince-less lineup, and things might not be too easy for Ryan Braun in 2012. Needless to say, the Brewers offense isn't going to be anywhere near as good as it was last season. Milwaukee's still going to compete, though. The Brewers' pitching is too good. Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum are a very good top three, and Randy Wolf, one of those pesky serviceable veterans, will be an innings-eater. Plus, they boast the luxury of having two solid closers--Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford. Just like last year, if the Brewers can take a lead into the seventh, they're going to win a lot of games with those two in the back of the bullpen.
Lineup: Nyjer Morgan-CF, Rickie Weeks-2B, Ryan Braun-LF, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Corey Hart-RF, Mat Gamel-1B, Alex Gonzalez-SS, Jonathan Lucroy-C
Rotation: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson
Closer: John Axford
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Pittsburgh Pirates-For four months last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates resembled a Major League baseball team. Then for the final two months, they resumed being the Pittsburgh Pirates. This team is so frustrating because they're so bad every year that they collect so many high draft picks, yet still can't find a way to win. Those guys are starting to make it to the majors, and they're so talented it's not even funny. I absolutely love Andrew McCutchen. And Neil Walker. And Garrett Jones. And Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez, however, is another story. That guy's a mess. They've got enough veterans around those guys to have a decent lineup. Pitching has always been the Pirates' weakness. Whenever they get a decent pitcher, they ship him off to one of the good teams at the trade deadline. There are definitely candidates for that role this season, namely reliever Evan Meek and closer Joel Hanrahan, but the Pirates did something completely out of character during the offseason and acquired a veteran pitcher to be their ace. That guy is A.J. Burnett. Say what you want about A.J., but I always thought he got a bit of a bad rep with the Yankees. I'm among the many that's convinced he can still be an above-average Major League starter. Maybe a change of scenery was what he needed. And you can't get much different from New York than Pittsburgh. Instead of being expected to win every night, A.J.'s job is going to be eating innings for a Pirates team that would be thrilled if he finishes .500. I'm rooting for A.J.
Lineup: Alex Presley-LF, Jose Tabata-RF, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Neil Walker-2B, Pedro Alvarez-3B, Garrett Jones-1B, Rod Barajas-C, Clint Barmes-SS
Rotation: A.J. Burnett, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, Charlie Morton, James McDonald
Closer: Joel Hanrahan
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Chicago Cubs-Theo Epstein was a savior in Boston after breaking the Curse and leading the Red Sox to a pair of World Series titles. Now he's the president of the Cubs, who have a little World Series drought of their own and fans that are just as crazy. Unfortunately, he takes over a Cubs team that's light on talent. Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto are studs. That's about it. Carlos Pena struck out all the time, but he still led the team in home runs last year. And as much of a black hole he was at third base, the loss of Aramis Ramirez puts a big dent in the lineup. Alfonso Soriano's still there, but I've never seen a player get so old so quickly. The big offseason additions are David DeJesus and Ian Stewart. Need I say more? Fortunately, the Cubs have decent pitching. If he gets off to a good start, Matt Garza will be trade bait come July. Ryan Dempster's a decent No. 1. He isn't great, but he isn't bad either. Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood are nasty in the back end of the bullpen. For once, that pitching staff doesn't include Carlos Zambrano. One of Theo's first moves was dumping that clubhouse cancer and all the drama he brought with him. Let's see if a better clubhose makes for a better team in Wrigleyville.
Lineup: David DeJesus-RF, Starlin Castro-SS, Marlon Byrd-CF, Bryan LaHair-1B, Alfonso Soriano-LF, Ian Stewart-3B, Geovany Soto-C, Darwin Barney-2B
Rotation: Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Volstad
Closer: Carlos Marmol
Projected Record: 71-91
6. Houston Astros-In their 50th anniversary season (and final year in the National League), the Astros will resemble an expansion team. Outside of Carlos Lee, I'm not sure I'd be able to name anybody on Houston's roster without looking it up. As for Lee, he was good five years ago. Now he's just old. So old, in fact, that the Astros are moving him to first base this season because he can't play the outfield anymore. Fortunately, they won't need to go out and get a DH when they move to the AL West next year. In fact, they'll have two DH options next season. Jack Cust is now on the roster. So is former Red Sok Jed Lowrie, who'll finally get the chance to be an everyday shortstop. Last year they had Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn before dumping both of them at the trade deadline. Everyone thought they were going to trade Wandy Rodriguez, too, but, alas Rodriguez is still in Houston. He's the "ace" of the pitching staff. Their best pitcher is probably Brett Myers, who's being moved from the rotation to closer. Why is a team this bad taking its best starter and turning him into a closer when he'll get maybe two save situations a week? I think they'd be better off with Myers in the rotation, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. The final season of National League baseball in Houston will be painful for Astros fans to watch. They're lucky that Major League Baseball doesn't have the European soccer relegation system. Otherwise, they'd be in danger of becoming members of the International League in 2013. As it is, they'll be reborn as members of the AL West next year, although I don't see their prospects looking much better against the Angels and Rangers. (At least they got away from Albert for one year.)
Lineup: Jordan Schafer-CF, Jose Altuve-2B, Chris Johnson-3B, Carlos Lee-1B, J.D. Martinez-LF, Jed Lowrie-SS, Jason Castro-C, Brian Bogusevic-RF
Rotation: Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, J.A. Happ, Jordan Lyles, Kevin Weiland
Closer: Brett Myers
Projected Record: 56-106
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