As obvious as the top eight teams in the men's tournament were, the four No. 1 seeds on the women's side were even more obvious. It really tells you something that in a "down" year, UConn still has a 29-4 record and enters the Tournament as a 1-seed. Baylor, Notre Dame, UConn and Stanford are so clearly better than everybody else that it wouldn't surprise anybody to see all four of them in Denver. But common sense dictates that won't be the case.
While there are usually far fewer upsets on the women's side, it's still unlikely that all four 1-seeds will make their way to the Final Four. It's just a matter of which one is going to lose, to who, and when. Undefeated Baylor is far and away the best team in the country. The Bears are 34-0. Who cares? If they don't win the title (and set an NCAA record with 40 wins in a season), this season will qualify as a colossal disappointment. After not even making the Final Four last season, Baylor's been a team on a mission all year. They're the prohibitive favorites to get it done, and, frankly, it would be shocking if they don't. But, like the Kentucky men, Baylor's national title isn't guaranteed. So how's the Tournament going to play out? Let's take a look:
Des Moines-I give the NCAA credit for not completely screwing Baylor with the 2-seed in its region this year. They drew Tennessee, which I'd like as a potential Final Four team out of another region. But Baylor's the team coming out of Des Moines (have I mentioned how stupid it is that the women's regionals are named by city?). There isn't a team in this bracket that can scare them. A second-round game with Ohio State in Ohio could be relatively close, but still won't be a problem. The fact that the second-round game between Georgetown and Georgia Tech will make that game a lot closer than it would've been otherwise. (Interesting that they didn't put Duke on North Carolina's home floor.) Even though the Yellow Jackets are the 4-seed, I think Georgetown's a better team and will advance. Delaware was justly rewarded for its fine season with a 3-seed, but has to play a road game in the first round! Gee, thanks. Upset alert with that matchup against Arkansas-Little Rock. Elena Delle Donne and the Blue Hens survive, but it'll be close. Former Big 12 rivals Nebraska and Kansas square off in the 6-11 game, which Nebraska should win easily after reaching the B1G championship game. As I said, I'd like second-seeded Tennessee to potentially get to the Final Four out of any other region, but against Baylor, it ain't happening.
Fresno-I was a little surprised that Stanford was only rated No. 4 overall, but the overall strength of the Big East is probably what propelled Notre Dame and UConn over the Cardinal. This is where I think we might see our 1-seed go down, with very good Duke, St. John's and Purdue teams also in this region. Having to travel to Norfolk, Virginia, for the first two rounds won't help Stanford, either. They'll get out of that, but it might have an effect in Fresno. Purdue, meanwhile, gets to play at home in the first two rounds. The B1G champs could definitely pull the upset in the Sweet 16. In fact, let's go with that on the bracket. Purdue beats Stanford to get to the Fresno Regional final. St. John's has to go on the road to play Oklahoma in the second round. The Red Storm are a better team, but I'm not sure they're good enough to win a true road game against a quality Oklahoma squad. Second-seeded Duke also has to go on the road and play Vanderbilt. But the difference here is that Durham is a lot closer to Nashville than New York is to Norman. And Duke is significantly better than Vanderbilt. Enough to win on the road and set up a matchup with Oklahoma. I'm tempted to take Purdue in the regional final, but I think Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they haven't been to the Final Four in six years! That changes in 2012. The Blue Devils go to Denver.
Raleigh-Interesting that Duke wasn't put in the Raleigh Region, either. But Maryland is the ACC champs, which is probably what earned the Terps the right to play their regional at NC State. It's probably Notre Dame's Final Four berth to lose here. That's a definite possibility, though. We've got a potential National Championship Game rematch between Notre Dame and Texas A&M, and Maryland is scary for a team like Notre Dame. I still think Notre Dame is better than Maryland, but they probably would've preferred having Kentucky or Duke (even in Raleigh) as their 2-seed. Fifth-seeded St. Bonaventure is dangerous. That first round matchup between the Bonnies and Florida Gulf Coast will certainly be fun to watch. I don't think the winner gets by Georgia, though. The fact that Notre Dame, Maryland and Texas A&M are all playing at home for the first two rounds should eliminate any element of suspense from any of those sites. I'm looking forward to that Texas A&M-Maryland game. Believe it or not, I think Texas A&M winning that would actually be better for Notre Dame. I don't think it happens, though. Maryland is good enough to be a Final Four team. Notre Dame will have to be at its best to beat them. I think the Irish do that in a close one.
Kingston-Even though UConn doesn't have an official home game in this year's Tournament, the Huskies' pre-Final Four travel will consist of about eight minutes per round. If UConn doesn't reach the Final Four after playing in Bridgeport, then Kingston, it'll be the surprise of the Tournament. The other three first-round sites consist of a lower-seeded team playing at home. That could make for some unexpected teams joining the Huskies in Rhode Island. LSU is the 5-seed and playing at home. That'll be enough to knock of fourth-seeded Penn State. Gonzaga made it all the way to the Elite Eight as an 11-seed last season (and played its regional in Spokane). Well, the Zags are home for the first two rounds again this year. They'll pull the upset (on paper, at least) against Rutgers, but aren't getting by Miami. Green Bay is just as good as Delaware, but got screwed by the committee with its seed once again. The Phoenix are a 7-seed, and have to go on the road to play Iowa State in the first round. Green Bay's wonderful season is going to end just like that. I even think Iowa State might have enough in the tank to beat Kentucky. I like Miami to get to the regional final, but nobody here's beating UConn.
Final Four: So, there you go. I'm not taking all the 1-seeds. But I'm not venturing too far out on that limb, either. I just think those four teams are so much better than everybody else. They're like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. (Stanford's Andy Murray in this scenario. You know they're not going to win, but you still just want them to.) I've thought Baylor and Notre Dame were the Djokovic and Nadal all season, but Notre Dame would be playing UConn for the fourth time this season in the Final Four, and the Huskies won the last meeting in the Big East Championship Game. Plus, they'll be out for revenge after losing to Notre Dame in the Final Four last season. Those two are so even that the littlest thing will be the difference. But, to keep the tennis analogy going, I'm going with Notre Dame in five. Duke's my fun little party-crasher, but is also no match for Baylor. That's a team with a singular focus.
That gives us Baylor and Notre Dame, the two best teams in the nation all year, playing for the championship. They were the preseason No. 1 and 2 teams, and they played each other as such back in November in the final of the Preseason WNIT. It would also put the two biggest names in women's basketball--Brittany Griner and Skylar Diggins on the sport's biggest stage. Notre Dame's the only team in the country that can hang with Baylor for 40 minutes. But when you get a team as good as Baylor playing with one goal in mind, even the second-best team is no match for them. 40-0. National Champions. The Baylor Bears.
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