Friday, March 30, 2018

Finally Catching On

Earlier this week, the NFL announced its rule changes for the 2018 season.  And one will be welcomed by players, coaches and fans alike.  It's something we've all been wanting for a while.  At long last, they've updated the catch rule.  

Finally, we can all agree that when something looks like a catch, it probably is.  No more dissecting replays over and over to find the split second when the ball hit the ground (even while the receiver still had control of it) and suddenly blowing everybody's mind by saying that an obvious catch suddenly wasn't.

This, of course, has been a source of confusion/frustration for years.  But it really came to a head during the 2017 season.  And, when Mr. Brilliant Commissioner talked about it at the Super Bowl, you knew a change was finally coming.  He basically told the Competition Committee to find a way to get this done.  Which I think, for the most part, they did.

All they had to do was remove the "survive the ground" from the definition of what a catch is.  That, essentially, was the problem.  All of the catches that were overturned over the years, from Calvin Johnson to Dez Bryant (the two most obvious examples) to Jesse James, it's because the officials determined they didn't "survive the ground," which made the pass incomplete.  Under the new rule, with that language taken out, they would've been catches. Which they were.

Will there still be controversy?  Absolutely.  But the new rule definitely makes things clearer and a lot easier to officiate.  All a play needs to meet in order to be considered a catch is three criteria: control, two feet (or another body part) in bounds, and a football move.  

For me, the football move part had always been the sticking point.  Take the Jesse James play.  He "lost control" while trying to extend to the end zone, which is why they ruled it incomplete (well, that and because it was against the Patriots, further playing into the hands of the conspiracy theorists).  But trying to extend the ball into the end zone is a football move!  

And, here's the part that made no sense to me.  A running back could lose control trying to extend the ball, and it was no harm, no foul.  So why was it different for a catch?  In order to reach for more yardage, the end zone, etc., he would've had to already had possession.  So at what point do you become a runner?  Fortunately, that distinction doesn't have to be made anymore.

Critics have argued this may lead to more plays being ruled catches and fumbles.  But that's OK.  Because how often would that fumble end up in the hands of someone other than the pass catcher?  One in five maybe?  Likewise, the bang-bang play will remain incomplete.  Which no one has an issue with.  You make a catch and it immediately gets knocked out, it should be incomplete.  The defender did his job and you didn't fulfill all three requirements of a catch.

An interesting point that Jesse James brought up about the catch/no catch controversy was regarding the use of replay on these plays.  And, frankly, I think he was right.  The intent of instant replay is to confirm the officials' call or provide indisputable evidence that the call should be overturned.  If they don't have that indisputable evidence, they're supposed to stick with the call on the field.

But with catches, it seemed like they were using replay for the exact opposite reason than it was intended.  Instead of trying to confirm a ruling, it often felt like they were looking for a reason to say it WASN'T a catch, even though it was pretty clear to the naked eye (and the first five regular-speed replays) that it should be.  How many times did we see them spending an extended amount of time combing over replay after replay from every angle, only to come back with a long-winded explanation as to why they changed it (we'll miss you, Ed Hochuli)?

Even people who know the rules had no idea what type of ruling they'd come back with after these catch/no catch replay reviews.  Because it would look so obviously one way, only to have it be ruled the opposite.  Then, to all of our surprise, Zach Ertz has a similar play in the Super Bowl, we all expect it to come back, and they rule it a touchdown!  (Apparently they were using the new rules in the Super Bowl.)

The fact that all 32 owners agreed to the rule change is pretty telling, too.  Of course, they knew it was going to pass, so even the owners who might not've agreed were somewhat backed into a corner.  But I think the frustration for everyone had boiled over.  Everyone knew a change was necessary after the Cowboys lost a playoff game because of the Dez Bryant play, and it was brought further to the forefront last season with the Jesse James play in a late-December nationally-televised showdown between the top two teams in the AFC.

I'm sure we'll still have our share of controversial rulings, but they'll be a lot fewer.  Because the new definition of a catch is a lot clearer and, frankly, makes a lot more sense.  Now, maybe when play looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, they won't have to spend five minutes looking at the replays only to come back and say it's a goose.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part VI

Happy Opening Day!  As baseball season starts, it's time to conclude our season preview.  And we end it with the division that gave us the team that had the best record in the game, as well as two other playoff teams, last season.

If you're expecting things to be much different this season, keep dreaming.  Because the Dodgers aren't just the class of the NL West, they've got an argument for being the best team in the entire National League.  The real battle will be for second place behind LA.  I think each of the other four teams has a legitimate reason to believe second place is theirs for the taking, although those battles with each other (as well as the fact that they all have to play the Dodgers 19 times) could end up costing the NL West a wild card team.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Last season they finally broke through and got back to the World Series for the first time in nearly 30 years, an eternity in Dodgertown.  But, they didn't come away with a championship, so 2017 can also be viewed as somewhat of a failure.  And they won't settle for anything less than a World Series return this season.  Of course, the Nationals and Cubs will have something to say about that, but it's nice to be worrying about October in March.  That's what happens when you have the best team in your division by a wide margin.  They're simply too good NOT to win another division title.  How good?  There are plenty of guys coming off the Dodgers bench who would be starters on other teams, including former All*Star Yasmani Grandal and World Series hero Joc Pederson.  They've also brought back Matt Kemp because it's evidently 2012 all over again.  (Speaking of 2012, Andre Ethier, who's been on the team since they played in Brooklyn, is nowhere to be seen on the Dodgers' roster.)  But anyway, when you have a solid lineup and the best starting pitcher of his generation, you have every reason to have high expectations.  Simply winning the NL West again won't be enough.  The Dodgers and their fans want to do what the Royals did.  They want to turn a home Game 7 loss to a World Series triumph the next season.  And they've got the talent to do it.
Projected Lineup: Chris Taylor-CF, Logan Forsythe-3B, Corey Seager-SS, Cody Bellinger-1B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Kike Hernandez-2B, Matt Kemp-LF, Austin Barnes-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 95-67

2. San Francisco Giants -- I'll be honest.  Prior to Madison Bumgarner's injury, I had the Giants making the playoffs this season (it is an even year, after all).  I've since adjusted that.  San Francisco's not going to approach the 90 wins I originally thought when Bumgarner won't be available until June.  But, I still think they'll be a lot better than most people are projecting after last year's disaster of a season.  Last season was rock bottom.  Everything that could go wrong did.  Yes, the roster is aging.  And, no, they're nowhere near as good as the Dodgers.  But the Giants did a very good job of addressing the holes in their lineup with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Adam Longoria.  Neither one is still in All*Star form, but they're both brand names and, more importantly, upgrades over what they had.  Of course, the issue will be the pitching.  Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija will both start the season on the DL, which puts quite a burden on Johnny Cueto.  If San Francisco can weather the storm until their rotation is in tact, they'll be in really good shape.  They might even be in the wild card conversation.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Joe Panik-2B, Andrew McCutchen-RF, Buster Posey-C, Evan Longoria-3B, Brandon Belt-1B, Hunter Pence-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Stratton, Ty Blach
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Colorado Rockies -- Here's the thing about the Colorado Rockies: They're an awful lot of fun to watch.  Their offense is explosive, and they're going to score a whole bunch of runs.  The question, as usual, is whether they'll get enough pitching to keep pace with that exciting offense.  Last year it did, and it resulted in a Wild Card Game appearance.  But, one of the things about the National League last season was that the entire league was down.  Not to take anything away from the Rockies.  They definitely deserved their place in the postseason.  I'm just saying that so many teams are improved (more so than Colorado) that it's going to be that much harder for them to get back.  Of course, the Rockies are also improved.  They signed Wade Davis, giving them a significant upgrade at closer.  It'll be up to the rest of the pitching staff to get Davis save opportunities.  Because this offense won't be kept down.  They'll score 5-6 runs on most nights.  The goal is to win 6-4 instead of losing 7-6.  If they end up on the right end of that score often enough, they could make a postseason return.  It seems like a stretch to see them finishing too much above .500, though.
Projected Lineup: Charlie Blackmon-CF, DJ LeMahieu-2B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Carlos Gonzalez-RF, Ian Desmond-LF, Trevor Story-SS, Chris Iannetta-C, Ryan McMahon-1B
Projected Rotation: Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, Kyle Freeland
Closer: Wade Davis

Projected Record: 82-80

4. San Diego Padres -- There are few teams that were more active during the offseason than the San Diego Padres.  They were aggressive in free agency, which is how they got Eric Hosmer, and they brought Chase Headley back two-plus years after trading him to the Yankees.  They also traded for Freddy Galvis, meaning 3/4 of their infield will be different.  Of course, Wil Myers played first base last year, but he moves back to the outfield to make room for Hosmer, one of the best first basemen in the game.  That moves Travis Jankowski to the bench, although I'd like to see Jankowski get semi-regular at bats.  I think he has a ton of upside and brings tremendous value.  San Diego is perpetually stuck in a state of rebuilding.  But Hosmer is the best everyday player they've had since a young Adrian Gonzalez (not the Dodgers version).  He'll instantly make San Diego a few wins better.  Will he lead the Padres to the playoffs?  Probably not.  Will they be better than they were last season?  Most likely.  How much better?  That's the million dollar question.  But I think .500 is an attainable goal.
Projected Lineup: Jose Pirela-LF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Eric Hosmer-1B, Chase Headley-3B, Wil Myers-RF, Austin Hedges-C, Manuel Margot-CF, Carlos Asuaje-2B
Projected Rotation: Clayton Richard, Luis Perdomo, Bryan Mitchell, Colin Rea, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 80-82

5. Arizona Diamondbacks -- The Diamondbacks are kinda like my National League version of Oakland.  By that I mean every time I think they're going to be good, they end up being terrible, and every time I think they're gonna suck, they end up in the playoffs.  Kinda like last season.  That playoff run came out of nowhere.  And I should probably be expecting the Diamondbacks to do it again.  But I also think it's just as likely they'll end up out if it by the All*Star break and selling off their tradeable parts.  Can I see another trip to the postseason, though?  Yes.  They've got a legitimate superstar in Paul Goldschmidt and a solid pitching staff anchored by Zack Greinke.  So, basically what I'm saying is that I have no idea what the 2018 Diamondbacks have in store for us.  They're clearly nowhere near the same league as the Dodgers, but the other four teams are so close that they could just as easily finish second or last.  If all goes well, they could end up back in the playoffs.  But, the teams they'll be fighting for the wild card (and within the division) have gotten better.  I'm not saying it can't happen.  It'll just be extremely tough.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-SS, David Peralta-LF, A.J. Pollock-CF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jake Lamb-3B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Alex Avila-C, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley
Closer: Brad Boxberger
Projected Record: 79-83


That gives us a National League playoff field of the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers as division champions (stop me if you've heard that before), with the Cardinals taking on the Brewers in the Wild Card Game.  St. Louis wins the Wild Card Game and advances to face the Dodgers, where LA moves on to its third consecutive NLCS.  They won't get a third straight NLCS showdown with the Cubs, though.  Because this will finally be the year Washington wins a playoff series.  In fact, I think they win two and reach their first World Series against defending champion Houston.

So, there you have it.  My World Series pick is Nationals-Astros.  There's been a lot of talk about the title droughts for both the Expos/Nationals franchise and the City of Washington as a whole.  Well, they'll be a parade in DC come November (and I'm not talking about Trump's ridiculous military parade).  If this is the last year of the Harper-Scherzer Era in Washington, it'll at least end with a championship, the Nationals' first.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part V

No division benefited more from the breakup of the Marlins and Royals than the NL Central.  The Cardinals and Brewers are, on paper, two of the most improved teams in the game heading into 2018.  Which means the division looks like it might actually be competitive after two years of Cubs domination.

Make no mistake.  Milwaukee and St. Louis are nowhere near the Cubs' level.  But they're among that group of mid-level teams who you can expect to see in the wild card hunt.  In fact, I've got all three NL Central teams making the playoffs. 

As for the Pirates and Reds, not so much.  Pittsburgh had that nice little run.  But they threw up the white flag on this season before it even began with the McCutchen and Cole trades (and the pursuit of others).  And Joey Votto will spend another season in Baseball Purgatory (aka Cincinnati).  It could be worse, though.  He could be stuck on the Marlins.

1. Chicago Cubs -- Whatever they did last season really wasn't going to matter one bit after the euphoria of 2016.  And they definitely had some World Series hangover for the first half of the season before getting their acts together and beating the Nationals in the Division Series.  This year they won't be able to get away with that.  For a couple reasons.  One, the rest of the division is much stronger than it was a year ago.  Two, the Cubs aren't as strong.  Sure, they've still got all of the key players from the teams that made the last three NLCSes, plus Ben Zobrist on the bench (there's no way Zobrist can be happy with that situation, either).  And they won the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, which is basically an even trade for the departed Jake Arrieta.  I wonder what type of effect his World Series failures will have on Darvish, though.  Personally, I think he'll be fine in Chicago.  Jon Lester's the "Man," so he doesn't need to be.  And slotting him in at No. 3 in the rotation gives the Cubs a deeper group of starters than most teams in the National League.  Simply put, they have too much talent not to make the playoffs again.  How far they'll advance once they get there, though?  That's a different question.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Willson Contreras-C, Jayson Heyward-RF, Addison Russell-SS, Javier Baez-2B
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood
Closer: Brandon Morrow
Projected Record: 92-70

2. St. Louis Cardinals -- It's been two years since the Cardinals made the playoffs, which is entirely too long in their eyes.  Don't expect that streak to reach three straight seasons.  The Cardinals could even challenge the Cubs at the top of the NL Central.  Although, this year, they're gonna do things a little differently.  They've actually got players you've heard of now!  And I'm including Tommy Pham in that group.  St. Louis loves him, and they think he's going to be a star.  They also added a star to the outfield in Marcell Ozuna.  Not a bad consolation prize after a certain more well-known former Marlins outfielder turned them down.  Ozuna gives their offense the added pop that Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuk certainly didn't bring.  Pitching-wise, they're fine...for now.  They're solid at the top with Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright (provided he's healthy), but it definitely wouldn't hurt them to get deeper in the rotation.  A lefty starter wouldn't hurt, either.  Otherwise, I don't think a long postseason run is in the Cards (pardon the pun).  But do they have enough to, at the very least, appear in the wild card game?  Absolutely.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Paul DeJong-SS, Matt Carpenter-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Tommy Pham-CF, Jedd Gyorko-3B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 88-74 (Wild Card)

3. Milwaukee Brewers -- A Cardinals return to the playoffs probably isn't that much of a stretch.  A Brewers return, on the other hand, would be a little more unexpected.  It shouldn't be, though.  Because Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in baseball.  On the offensive end, at least.  Two-thirds of their outfield is new.  They liberated Christian Yelich from Miami after snagging Lorenzo Cain as a free agent.  Although, that puts them in a weird situation where Ryan Braun is going to move to first base in order to make room for them...except first base is the position Eric Thames plays.  This is a National League team we're talking about, so no DH, which means somebody has to sit.  It does mean that they'll have a really good pinch-hitting option every game, though.  Do they have the pitching to match what should be a solid lineup?  No.  That might be the only thing that holds them back.  But if the pitching is good enough, the Brewers could/should be able to score enough runs to win a bunch of games.  And they just might snag a wild card in the process.
Projected Lineup: Eric Sogard-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Ryan Braun-1B, Travis Shaw-3B, Domingo Santana-RF, Manny Pina-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, Jimmy Nelson
Closer: Corey Knebel
Projected Record: 86-76 (Wild Card)

4. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Moving Andrew McCutchen wasn't really a surprise, but moving Gerrit Cole certainly was.  And it was a clear sign that the Pirates have turned the page.  Pittsburgh won't be terrible.  Not with guys like Starling Marte (make no mistake, this is his team now) and Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison (although Harrison will be continually be mentioned as trade bait until he actually is).  But they won't be good, either.  They're kinda stuck in the middle, and in this division they're the fourth-best team.  Which is why I don't think they'll be able to crack .500 (which they would in the NL East).  I do think they're on their way back to being a playoff team, though.  It just won't be this year.  Offensively, they're solid, but not overly strong.  On the mound, though, they'll really feel the impact of no longer having Gerrit Cole.  Because that puts a lot of pressure on Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon.  And, keep in mind, Nova's in the No. 1 spot, which means he'll regularly go against the Jon Lesters and Carlos Martinezes of the division.  Not to mention the Scherzers and Kershaws and Syndergaards of the rest of the NL.  In other words, they'll need to get a lot of wins from the back end of the rotation, which I'm not sure they will.
Projected Lineup: Josh Harrison-2B, Jordy Mercer-SS, Starling Marte-CF, Gregory Polanco-RF, Josh Bell-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Colin Moran-3B
Projected Rotation: Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove
Closer: Felipe Rivero
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Cincinnati Reds -- I really thought it was funny how many people were flipping out about Joey Votto not winning MVP last year.  For starters, Stanton deserved to win.  Second, did anyone realize Votto had that good a season in 2017?  Of course not.  Because Cincinnati hasn't been relevant in a few years.  And don't expect that to change this year.  Because, frankly, outside of Votto, there isn't much to see here.  Especially since Zack Cozart, their second-best player, is now in Anaheim.  They'll hit a lot of home runs, just like they always do (it's nicknamed the Great American Small Park for a reason).  But they'll also give up a lot.  As for Votto, yes, you can probably expect an average over .310 and somewhere around 30 home runs.  It won't stop the Reds from finishing last, though.  Their pitching staff simply isn't strong enough.  Homer Bailey deserves the Opening Day start for his decade of service and all he's meant to the franchise, but he's no higher than a No. 3 on any other team.  The bullpen is a mess.  Although, I do like closer Raisel Iglesias.  The Reds are nowhere near the worst team in the National League.  But in a competitive Central Division, they are.  A realistic goal for them this season is finishing fourth instead of last.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Jose Peraza-SS, Joey Votto-1B, Adam Duvall-LF, Scott Schebler-RF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Scooter Gennett-2B, Tucker Barnhart-C
Projected Rotation: Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafini, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano
Closer: Raisel Iglesias

Projected Record: 71-91

So, that's five out of six divisions down.  Tomorrow we wrap it up with the NL West, as well as the World Series pick.  Teams have departed Florida and Arizona for their first games.  Opening Day is so close I can taste it!

Sunday, March 25, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part IV

We've been here before.  In fact, we've been here in each of the past few seasons.  I don't want to say the Nationals have the division already won (I said that in 2015 and they didn't even make the playoffs while the Mets ended up in the World Series), but it's clearly theirs to lose.  They aren't thinking about the NL East.  They're thinking bigger.  Because they know this might be their last shot with this current group.

Some people have described the NL East as the "worst division in baseball," which is harsh, but I think fair.  The NL East is kinda like Baseball's equivalent of the AFC East.  The Nationals are the Patriots.  Everyone else is the Bills, Dolphins and Jets.  Part of the reason the Patriots have been so dominant over the last decade and a half has been because of how pathetic the rest of the division is.  Same thing here.

Two years ago, we had the Braves intentionally sucking.  Last year it was the Phillies.  This year, it'll be the Marlins.  Atlanta and Philadelphia may actually be somewhat decent this season, but they're nowhere near the class of the Nationals or even the Mets.  As for Derek Jeter's Marlins, they'd have trouble beating good Triple A teams on a daily basis.

1. Washington Nationals -- This is the make-or-break year in Washington.  Bryce Harper is a free agent after this season, so they know this might be their last best chance at that elusive pennant (I, personally, think Harper will re-sign with the Nationals, but that's a whole separate discussion).  Especially after seeing the Cubs and Dodgers finally end their droughts, the time is now in DC.  They've got the best pitching staff and one of the best lineups in the National League.  Although, they aren't very deep, so one injury could change that.  Especially an injury to one of their big three in the rotation.  Max Scherzer is their ace, their work horse, and arguably the best right-handed pitcher in the game.  But if he goes down, Stephen Strasburg is perfectly capable of stepping into that No. 1 spot.  It's a luxury few teams have.  And their bullpen, which always lagged behind their solid rotation, was addressed at the trade deadline last year.  It's still not great.  But it's much better than it was.  The bottom line with this franchise is simple, though.  Winning the division is not enough.  Dusty Baker got fired after back-to-back division titles.  New manager Dave Martinez's task isn't just getting to the playoffs.  It's winning once they do.  And if they don't this year, they really might blow it up and start over.
Projected Lineup: Michael Taylor-CF, Trae Turner-SS, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Daniel Murphy-2B, Anthony Rendon-3B, Adam Eaton-LF, Matt Wieters-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, A.J. Cole
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 93-69


2. New York Mets -- The Mets are incredibly reliant on their starting pitching.  This isn't Earth-shattering news that I'm sharing with everybody.  We've seen the results of it both good (2015 World Series) and bad (last season).  So, if all of their pitchers stay healthy, they're in really good shape to make a playoff run.  And new manager Mickey Callaway is a pitching guru, which is one of the reasons he was hired.  The Mets will need to get something more than they got last year out of their offense, as well.  That's why they brought Jay Bruce back.  That's why they brought in Todd Frazier, too.  Speaking of Todd Frazier, David Wright knows it's OK to retire, right?  He's been the face of the franchise for so long that it's noble he wants to get back on the field, but it doesn't look like it's ever going to happen.  The Mets aren't going to force him out, but the Frazier signing makes it clear they aren't holding out hope Wright will be an impactful member of the roster anytime soon.  That lineup, by the way, is actually pretty solid, and it'll only get better when Michael Conforto comes off the DL.  If enough people stay healthy, the Mets could easily be a wild card team.  If not, they'll still probably finish second (which shows just how bad the other three teams are), but they won't be in the playoff discussion.
Projected Lineup: Ahmed Rosario-SS, Asdrubal Cabrera-2B, Yoenis Cespedes-LF, Jay Bruce-RF, Todd Frazier-3B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Juan Lagares-CF
Projected Rotation: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Stephen Matz, Matt Harvey, Seth Lugo
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 85-77

3. Philadelphia Phillies -- You want a sign that the Phillies are ready to transition out of their rebuild?  How about the fact that they signed Carlos Santana early in free agency, then they were the ones who finally pounced on Jake Arrieta?  Nobody expected Arrieta to end up in Philadelphia, so it was obviously quite a coup that the Phillies snagged him.  They now have the ace that they haven't had since trading Cole Hamels.  And Santana gives them a veteran bat to anchor a lineup built around good young stars Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco.  They're still a year or two away from being totally relevant again.  But they'll be one of the most improved teams in baseball this season.  And, with the number of games they play against the Braves and Marlins each season, finishing around .500 is possible.  Realistic?  Probably not.  They'll definitely be decent, though.  Especially with Arrieta pitching every fifth day.
Projected Lineup: Cesar Hernandez-2B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Rhys Hoskins-LF, Carlos Santana-1B, Maikel Franco-3B, Odubel Herrera-CF, Nick Williams-RF, Jorge Alfaro-C
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 76-86

4. Atlanta Braves -- Last year's Braves actually resembled a professional baseball team.  And this year they'll likely add a few more wins to the 72 they had last season.  They're moving in the right direction, and they pulled off a major steal when they got Charlie Culberson from the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp deal.  Except their young guys need a bit more seasoning, so contending in 2018 probably isn't in the cards.  Instead, they'll likely be battling the Phillies for third place (although I've seen some predictions that have the Braves finishing second).  I give Philadelphia the slight edge because of the Santana and Arrieta additions, but Atlanta's had its own ace in Julio Teheran for a few seasons.  They've kept him around waiting for the time they'll once again be contenders, but should they ever decide to move him, he'll be a hot commodity.  Same thing with Freddie Freeman, who's having his own Joey Vottoesque career.  At least that ridiculous experiment of playing him at third base is over.  And, with former No. 1 overall pick and career Brave Chipper Jones entering the Hall of Fame this year, the time seems appropriate to wonder if another former No. 1 overall pick, Dansby Swanson, can truly live up to the potential the Braves see in him or if he's another bust.
Projected Lineup: Ender Inciarte-CF, Ozzie Albies-2B, Freddie Freeman-1B, Nick Markakis-RF, Tyler Flowers-C, Preston Tucker-LF, Rio Ruiz-3B, Dansby Swanson-SS
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Mike Folytnewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Miami Marlins -- Does anyone else think that if Derek Jeter and Don Mattingly were to activate themselves, they'd be the best players on the team?  They didn't trade the entire roster during the offseason.  It just felt like it.  Because anyone on the Marlins you've ever heard of is now no longer on the Marlins.  It got so bad that even Starlin Castro, who they got from the Yankees for Giancarlo Stanton, asked to be traded...before even playing a game for the franchise!  This is by far the worst team in baseball, and it's really not even that close.  They know it, too.  It'll be a shock if they don't lose 100-plus games.  I will say this, though.  Their offense won't be that God awful.  They didn't trade everyone.  J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour are still there, and they've actually added a couple pieces in Starlin Castro and Cameron Maybin.  Their pitching staff, however, is another story.  Brad Ziegler's a decent closer, but he's not gonna have many opportunities to save games.
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin-RF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Starlin Castro-2B, Justin Bour-1B, Derek Dietrich-LF, Brian Anderson-3B, Lewis Brinson-CF, Miguel Rojas-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Urena, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, Jacob Turner
Closer: Brad Ziegler
Projected Record: 56-106

While it'll be a surprise to see someone other than the Nationals at the top or the Marlins at the bottom, positions 2-4 are almost interchangeable.  One injury, especially an extended one to a key player, could change everything.  Regardless, Washington is far and away the class of the division.  If not the entire National League.

Friday, March 23, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part III

Opening Day is less than a week away.  Which means I really need to get moving on my baseball previews!  Today we wrap up the American League with a look at the AL West, a division that's incredibly strong at the top, and one where the defending World Series champs will need to be on their game if they want to repeat.

I think this is going to be a really good year in the AL West.  The Astros, of course, won the World Series last season, and they might even be better this year.  But so are the Angels and Mariners.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an AL West squad playing in the Wild Card Game.  As for catching Houston, that's a different story.

1. Houston Astros -- What can they do for an encore?  Will they have the same type of World Series hangover that plagued the Cubs for the first half of last season?  Will they indeed be even better?  The spotlight's on them now.  Everyone knows how good the Astros are.  So the pressure will likely be amped up a little bit.  Especially because for, as good as Houston was last season, this year's bunch does appear to be stronger.  The World Series lineup returns in tact (Yuli Gurriel will miss a month to start the season), and their starting pitching, which was considered their one "weakness" was bolstered by the addition of Gerrit Cole, giving them as potent a 1-2-3 as any team in baseball.  And let's not forget, they'll have a full season of Justin Verlander, as well.  Verlander, who was a completely different pitcher in Houston than he had been in Detroit.  Simply put, anything less than an ALCS rematch with the Yankees would be a major disappointment.  And the Astros know that.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Carlos Correa-SS, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Marwin Gonzalez-LF, Josh Reddick-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Brian McCann-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers Jr., Charlie Morton
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 92-70

2. Los Angeles Angels -- They won the Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes, which means a whole lot of eyeballs will be watching the Angels for reasons other than Mike Trout this season.  And Ohtani (who strangely isn't listed on the Angels' 40-man) is quickly learning that this whole dual pitcher/hitter thing isn't quite as easy as he thought it would be.  He's struggled both at the plate and on the mound in Spring Training, which could put Mike Scioscia in an incredibly uncomfortable situation should it continue.  Throw in the fact that Ohtani will DH on his hitting days, and that means Albert Pujols will have to play first base semi-regularly.  Will he stay healthy?  Regardless, all credit to the Angels for going all-in once they secured Ohtani.  They added Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton, two quality veteran bats.  And they got Zack Cozart to agree to a move to third base, a position that's been a black hole in Anaheim for the past couple seasons.  Suddenly, there's less pressure on Trout to be THE man.  The last time things were like that was in 2014, when they won 98 games.  I don't think they'll win that many, but 90's possible.  Which should have them in the wild card mix all season.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Kole Calhoun-RF, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Justin Upton-LF, Luis Valbuena-1B, Zack Cozart-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Jim Johnson
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)

3. Seattle Mariners -- Once again, the Mariners find themselves in the same quagmire.  They have one of the best pitchers in the game in Felix Hernandez and some offensive stars in Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager.  Yet they always end up around .500 and outside of the playoff discussion.  I wouldn't be surprised if that happens again.  Because for all the strides the Mariners have made with their lineup, their pitching behind King Felix is still their Achilles heel.  And speaking of that lineup, they definitely did some interesting things during the offseason.  The first was getting Dee Gordon, the first guy to get liberated from the Marlins (and sent literally as far away from Miami as possible).  That's not the interesting part.  His move to center field, a position he's never played before, is.  I'm curious to see how it works out.  Especially since they don't really have another choice for where to play Gordon with Cano entrenched at second.  The second curious signing is Ichiro's return.  I love that he's back in Seattle.  Bookends his Hall of Fame career the same way Ken Griffey, Jr.'s Mariners reunion was.  But, I didn't realize they were signing him to be the everyday left fielder (at least until Ben Gamel gets back).  Granted, he was behind Giancarlo, Yelich and Ozuna, but he was essentially a pinch hitter in Miami.  At this point in his career can he still be an everyday outfielder?  If it works out, the Mariners could be in the conversation until September.  If not, they might be sellers at the deadline.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-CF, Jean Segura-SS, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Ryon Healy-1B, Mitch Haniger-RF, Mike Zunino-C, Ichiro Suzuki-LF
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Texas Rangers -- Remember when Texas was far-and-away the best team in this division?  It wasn't actually that long ago.  Yet it seems like ages.  Now they're not even the best team in Texas.  Things have changed that quickly in the AL West.  Yet, I still think the Rangers could be a sleeper team in 2018.  Injuries were really the thing that derailed them, so if they stay healthy, a playoff return isn't that much of a stretch.  But this Rangers team doesn't have Yu Darvish, and they need more pitchers than just Cole Hamels to contend.  Their bullpen is pathetic, too, so I can see a lot of leads getting blown and a lot of 8-6 losses.  They will score plenty of runs.  Enough to balance out the deficiencies on the mound?  I don't think so.  Adrian Beltre's a Hall of Famer.  The names around him in the lineup are not.  And, I'm sorry, but Shin-Soo Choo should not be the starting DH for any Major League team.  They do have a bunch of young studs.  Joey Gallo has the makings of a star, and I love Nomar Mazara.  They don't have any depth, though, so one injury and they're sunk.  Which is exactly what happened last year.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields, Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Adrian Beltre-3B, Joey Gallo-1B, Roughned Odor-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Nomar Mazara-RF, Ryan Rua-LF, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Martin Perez
Closer: Tim Lincecum
Projected Record: 81-81

5. Oakland Athletics -- Every time I say the A's are going to suck, they end up winning 90 games and making the playoffs.  But I just don't see how with this team.  They don't even have that ace pitcher anymore now that Sonny Gray is wearing pinstripes.  The key piece that they got from the Yankees in that trade was Dustin Fowler, who projects to be Oakland's starting center fielder.  I wish him nothing but the best after the horror of his Major League debut last season, when he tore up his knee in the bottom of the first in a game in Chicago and was lost for the season before ever even getting to bat.  In Oakland, he'll get plenty of at-bats.  He's not the only newcomer in the Oakland oufield, either.  Stephen Piscotty asked the Cardinals to trade him to the A's so he could be near his ailing mother, and he'll be one of the focal points of the lineup, which also boasts plenty of youth.  You'd have to think some of those guys might be auditioning for other teams over the first four months of the season.  Because the A's definitely have the makings of sellers at the deadline.  Especially in a loaded AL West.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-SS, Jed Lowrie-2B, Matt Joyce-LF, Khris Davis-DH, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Matt Olson-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Dustin Fowler-CF, Bruce Maxwell-C
Projected Rotation: Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea, Paul Blackburn, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs
Closer: Blake Treinen
Projected Record: 68-94

So, my AL playoff field consists of the Yankees, Indians and Astros as division winners, with the Angels hosting the Red Sox in the Wild Card Game.  With Chris Sale pitching, Boston wins that game, setting up a Division Series between the rivals.  The Yankees are the superior team, though, so they advance to meet the Astros.  And in the ALCS rematch, I think the same thing happens again.  I've got the Astros defending their pennant.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part II

Over the past few seasons, the AL Central has emerged as one of the top divisions in baseball.  Better than the AL East even.  From the Tigers' sustained run of success to the Royals' back-to-back World Series appearances (and 2015 championship) to the Indians reaching Game 7 of the World Series, then posting the best record in the AL last season, it's been a good run.

That run looks like it's probably going to end in 2018, though.  Because the East and West are significantly stronger top to bottom.  And the Central teams are definitely weaker.  The Royals were sold off for parts (which we all knew was going to happen as soon as they all became free agents), the Tigers have gone into a complete rebuild, and the White Sox are still in the midst of theirs.  Which leaves the Indians and Twins, both playoff teams last season, to battle it out for the division title.

This year, there looks to be only one spot available.  Although, if Cleveland and Minnesota both beat up on the other three enough, whoever finishes second could snag the second wild card.  Either way, a win total in the high-80s is likely going to be enough to get it done in the AL Central.

1. Cleveland Indians -- After two really good seasons with nothing to show for it, the Indians are hoping the third time's the charm.  They've definitely got the talent to do it, too.  While not as strong as the Yankees or Astros (or even the Red Sox), the Indians are still definitely the class of the AL Central.  It starts with their ridiculous starting rotation, which is among the best in the game.  Then there's the 1-2 punch of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in the bullpen.  Meanwhile, they had a player finish third in MVP voting last season, and he isn't even their best player!  Jason Kipnis moved to center field against the Yankees in the playoffs because Jose Ramirez was at second, but with Ramirez moving back to third, Kipnis will no longer be out of position.  They're hoping to actually get a full season out of Michael Brantley, too.  He made the All*Star Team last season before missing basically the entire second half and serving exclusively as a pinch hitter in the playoffs.  Cleveland lost Carlos Santana in free agency, but they're replacing him with Yonder Alonso, which is pretty much a wash offensively.  They can thump.  They just need to stay healthy.  If they do, their combination of hitting and pitching will result in a third straight postseason appearance.
Projected Lineup: Jason Kipnis-2B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Jose Ramirez-3B, Michael Brantley-LF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Yonder Alonso-1B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF, Roberto Perez-C, Bradley Zimmer-CF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 88-74

2. Minnesota Twins -- From 100 losses in 2016 to the playoffs in 2017.  Which version of the Twins is the real one?  Was that incredible one-year turnaround the sign that the Twins will be contenders for the long run?  I think so.  They've got a lot of young talent, and they aren't going away.  As long as there isn't any playoff hangover, Minnesota should be right in the thick of it again this season.  They'll fight the Indians tooth and nail all year.  However, I give Cleveland the slight edge because of the Indians' superior pitching.  Don't sleep on the Twins, though.  Too many teams did last year (especially after they threw up the white flag at the deadline, then somehow got better) and, before anyone knew it, Minnesota had a clear path to the playoffs.  Their path isn't quite as clear this season, mainly because the division will likely be their only path.  But if they hit the way they're capable of and get solid pitching, they'll be in contention all season.  And if everything goes right, they just might edge the Indians for the division title
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Miguel Sano-3B, Logan Morrison-DH, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Jason Castro-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Phil Hughes
Closer: Fernando Rodney
Projected Record: 85-77

3. Kansas City Royals -- It was a nice little story for a while, but we knew it had to end once free agency hit.  Well, free agency arrived, and the dismantling of the Royals began.  Lorenzo Cain is in Milwaukee and Eric Hosmer (the best player on the team) is in San Diego.  Mike Moustakas is back, on a one-year deal that he signed late because he didn't get any better offers.  So, this will likely be his final season in Kansas City.  Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez are still around (for now), but their replacements for Hosmer and Cain (Lucas Duda and Jon Jay) are both significant downgrades.  They were also relying a lot on Jorge Bonifacio, who's suspended for the first 80 games.  Meanwhile, their pitching staff took a hit when Jason Vargas left as a free agent.  And you're definitely not going to make the playoffs with a rotation headed by Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy.  Not when you're going up against Indians' and Twins' lineups regularly.  They're definitely better than both the White Sox and Tigers, though.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Jon Jay-CF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Lucas Duda-1B, Alex Gordon-LF, Salvador Perez-C, Jorge Soler-DH, Whit Merrifield-2B, Paulo Orlando-RF
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, Jakob Junis
Closer: Kelvin Herrera
Projected Record: 79-83

4. Chicago White Sox -- The White Sox are an interesting bunch.  They went into a rebuild last season, but still had plenty of serviceable players, which made them ideal trade partners at the deadline.  It could be the same thing this year with Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and even James Shields.  All of these moves have given them a really good young core group, though.  With Yoan Moncada as the centerpiece.  The big prize in the Chris Sale trade, he showed up in Chicago to stay late last season, playing in 54 games.  Throw in Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico and Tyler Saladino, and you've got a team that could definitely be competitive in a year or two.  As for being competitive in 2018...that seems unlikely.  They simply aren't good enough, especially on the pitching side.  James Shields is literally the only pitcher on the White Sox anyone has ever heard of.  Well, him and Joakim Soria, who looks like he'll get another shot as a closer after spending the last two years as a setup man in Kansas City.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Yoan Moncada-2B, Jose Abreu-1B, Avisail Garcia-RF, Matt Davidson-3B, Tyler Saladino-DH, Nicky Delmonico-LF, Adam Engel-CF, Welington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon
Closer: Joakim Soria
Projected Record: 73-89

5. Detroit Tigers -- Detroit is basically down to just Miguel Cabrera, who's a shell of his former self.  The Tigers knew this time was coming, which is why they traded J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander at the end of last season.  It's gonna take a few years for them to work their way back to the top of the division, but they won't be nearly as bad as they were last season, when injuries really took their toll.  And, even without Verlander, they still have a solid rotation anchored by Michael Fulmer and Jordan Zimmermann.  Plus, they still have Miggy and Victor Martinez.  Cabrera probably won't return to his MVP form, but he's still a lethal bat in the middle of the lineup.  The thing I'm most curious about regarding the Tigers, though, is how well Nicholas Castellanos transitions to right field.  The move was to open up third base for Jeimer Candelario, one of the many new faces we'll see in Detroit this season, as the Tigers look to at least keep their record respectable in Ron Gardenhire's first season as manager.
Projected Lineup: Dixon Machado-2B, Leonys Martin-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Nicholas Castellanos-RF, Mikie Mahtook-LF, Jeimer Candelario-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Fulmer, Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Matthew Boyd
Closer: Shane Greene
Projected Record: 67-95

With the White Sox and Tigers in the midst of rebuilds and Kansas City caught somewhere in the middle, it'll be a surprise if the division title goes somewhere other than Cleveland or Minnesota.  Although, no one thought that much of the Twins heading into last season, so you never know.  Especially in the division known for surprises.

Monday, March 19, 2018

The 2018 Baseball Preview, Part I

Opening Day is 10 days away!  Which means it's time for my annual baseball preview!  And we start it the way we always do--with the AL East.  A division that should provide plenty of intrigue this season, especially with the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry coming back to a boil.

Their cycles of success haven't been in sync for a while, but that changed last season, when they both made the playoffs in the same year for the first time since 2009.  And there's no reason to think it won't happen again this year.  Because they're far-and-away the two best teams in the division, and clearly two of the top five in the American League.

As for which one has the edge, look for the Yankees to win their first division crown in six years.  They're a chic World Series pick by a lot of people.  I'm not totally willing to go that far (believe it or not, Houston managed to get better, too), but they're definitely scary (the good kind of scary).  There are gonna be a lot of home runs hit in the Bronx this season.

1. New York Yankees -- Last season was a rebuilding year in the Bronx.  A rebuilding year that ended in Game 7 of the ALCS.  Then they went out and added the NL MVP and his 58 home runs to their already ridiculous lineup.  Giancarlo and Judge might hit 100 home runs between them.  And, frankly, does it really matter which one plays right and which DH's?  They're going to score a lot of runs.  And it's gonna be a lot of fun to watch.  With a lineup this good (and a bullpen this good), the rotation doesn't need to be great.  Which is why I'm glad they didn't overspend on a free agent starting pitcher.  Because they didn't need to.  This is the same rotation that they had at the end of last season.  It was serviceable then, and it's serviceable now.  And if Luis Severino's 2018 is anything like his 2017, they've got a bona fide ace.  The Yankees are back to being hated by everyone else in baseball.  And with good reason.  Because they're gonna win a lot of games and likely keep playing deep into October.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Greg Bird-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Gary Sanchez-C, Didi Gregorius-SS, Neil Walker-2B, Brandon Drury-3B, Aaron Hicks-CF
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 94-68

2. Boston Red Sox -- Especially after the Yankees got Giancarlo, the Red Sox became obsessed with J.D. Martinez.  So obsessed that they offered him a contract before Thanksgiving, then sat around waiting for him to sign it, which wasn't until right before the start of Spring Training.  It somewhat makes sense on paper.  They hit no home runs last season and he hit a bunch, so it seemed like a natural fit in the middle of their lineup.  But...they already had three starting outfielders and a DH.  Now with Martinez on board, Hanley Ramirez moves back to first, and we all know how well that's gone in the past.  After two straight division titles, Boston looks like a second-place team this season.  The Yankees got significantly better, and the Red Sox didn't.  Martinez was their only significant signing, and their pitching staff behind ace Chris Sale really needs to bounce back.  Even still, the Red Sox are one of the better teams in the AL.  They're likely looking at a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Eduardo Nunez-2B, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Mookie Betts-RF, J.D. Martinez-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Rafael Devers-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Christian Vazquez-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Brian Johnson
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 88-74 (Wild Card)

3. Toronto Blue Jays -- It's Year One A.B. (After Bats) North of the Border, which means the Blue Jays are going to have a completely different identity this season.  Toronto hasn't torn it down completely, though.  There are some new faces, but enough of their stars are back for the Blue Jays to remain relevant.  Make no mistake, though.  This is Josh Donaldson's team now, and I'm curious to see what Justin Smoak has in store after his breakout 2017 campaign.  It was smart of them to go for it when they did a few years ago.  Because they know they aren't as good as the Yankees or Red Sox.  If everything goes right, they could be in the wild card hunt, but realistically, they're fighting the Orioles for third place.  I give the Blue Jays a slight edge in the pitching department, so I give them the nod over Baltimore.  They'll still likely finish well off the pace, though.
Projected Lineup: Devon Travis-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Justin Smoak-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Russell Martin-C, Curtis Granderson-LF, Randal Grichuk-RF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Aldemys Diaz-SS
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Jaime Garcia
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Baltimore Orioles -- The Orioles are stuck in the same boat they usually are.  They've got loads of talent, especially offensively.  But not enough.  And the pitching staff just isn't good enough to keep up in a loaded AL East.  I think that's why they were shopping Manny Machado throughout the offseason.  They're almost certainly going to lose him as a free agent, so he might be the biggest name available as a rental at the deadline.  Unless the Orioles surprise over the four months and are still in contention for a wild card.  Which they could be.  Because, as I said, their lineup is loaded.  Especially if DH Mark Trumbo comes back healthy.  I am curious how Machado's move to short is gonna go, but he's the best player on the team, so I think he'll be fine.  For all the questions I ahve with their rotation, the ones I have regarding the bullpen are just as big.  They need to find a closer with Zach Britton starting the season on the 60-day DL.
Projected Lineup: Adam Jones-CF, Tim Beckham-3B, Manny Machado-SS, Chris Davis-1B, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Trey Mancini-DH, Colby Rasmus-RF, Craig Gentry-LF, Caleb Joseph-C
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Chris Tillman, Andrew Cashner, Gabriel Ynoa
Closer: Brad Brach
Projected Record: 80-82

5. Tampa Bay Rays -- They're not as bad as Florida's other team, but the Rays have no chance of winning the AL East.  They went into full rebuild mode when they traded franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria to the Giants, and the recognizable names on Tampa Bay's roster are few and far between.  That number could be reduced even further if, as expected, they trade Chris Archer at some point during the season.  If they do trade Archer does that mean they'll go to a three-man rotation?  That's really the biggest news about the Rays heading into the season.  They're trying a four-man rotation all year, and sending a bunch of relievers out there on the days they need a fifth.  Might as well give it a shot.  Because it's going to be a long year in Tampa Bay.  (The good news is very few people will pay attention if the Lightning make a deep playoff run.)
Projected Lineup: Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Denard Span-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Gomez-DH, Brad Miller-2B, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, Matt Duffy-3B, Wilson Ramos-C, Mallex Smith-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, Nathan Eovaldi
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 64-98

So, it's got all the makings of a blast from the past in the AL East this season.  We'll have the Yankees and Red Sox, each with a rookie manager, dueling for the division title, Toronto and Baltimore somewhere in the middle, and the Rays bringing up the rear.  There's one thing we know for certain regarding the AL East, though--the rivalry is most definitely back on.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

No More Mid-Major Love

As Syracuse once again makes the Committee look like they know what they're doing and infuriating those of us who thought they had no business in the Tournament, the mid-majors are having quite a showing.  Seven mid-majors won first round games (including UMBC's epic upset of Virginia), and, with a few games to go in the second round, we're guaranteed at least three (one of which is Gonzaga, which barely counts anymore) in the Sweet 16, with a guaranteed Elite Eight appearance for either Loyola Chicago or Nevada.

Which further goes to show that the difference between the "top" teams and the mid-majors isn't really that large.  We all knew this already, especially after the Final Four runs by VCU, George Mason, Butler, Wichita State and Gonzaga in recent years.  Yet, come Selection Sunday, mid-major teams are getting less and less love.

A friend of mine sent me a Yahoo article the other day that broke down the at-large bids in this year's Tournament.  Of the 36 at-large bids, a grand total of three went to teams outside the top seven leagues (Power 5, Big East and American).  Two--Rhode Island and Nevada--were regular season conference champions.  The third, St. Bonaventure, got sent to Dayton.  All three won their first game.  Nevada's in the Sweet 16.

Meanwhile, the ACC, the supposed "best" conference, lands eight at-large bids.  You know how many ACC teams are in the Sweet 16?  Three!  (With the potential of Florida State making it four.)  And with Duke playing Syracuse in the next round, the ACC will lose another one before the Elite Eight.  This despite boasting the No. 1 overall seed (Virginia) and the defending National Champion (North Carolina).  (By the way, the SEC, which got eight teams in the field, is down to just Kentucky and Texas A&M.)

The Committee clearly has a lot of respect for the ACC.  Virtually everyone had Syracuse out, but they got in because of the strength of the conference (more on that in a moment).  And Notre Dame was the first team out, so it would've been 10 if Davidson hadn't won the Atlantic 10.  Meanwhile, mid-major teams like Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's (Middle Tennessee especially) apparently weren't even really considered.  Which leaves you wondering what mid-major teams have to do.

When they expanded the field to 68 teams in 2011, most people thought that one of the benefits would be that mid-majors would have a better chance of getting in with the three (now two) extra at-large bids.  And in the first few years of the First Four, that was exactly the case.

In 2011, the first year of the 68-team format, when VCU made its memorable run from the First Four to the Final Four, the Rams were one of seven mid-major at-large teams.  In 2012, it was a whopping 11 teams, with the Mountain West, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference all landing more Tournament teams than the Pac-12 that year.  In 2013, the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 both got five bids, and there was again a total of 11 mid-major at-large teams.

Then came 2014, when conference realignment really began to rear its ugly head.  That's the year of the Big East/American split, giving us seven major conferences instead of six.  It also marked the start of the disappearing at-large bids for mid-majors.  Over the past five years, this is the breakdown of at-large bids for schools outside those seven conferences is:
  • 2014: 7 (5 of which came from the Atlantic 10)
  • 2015: 6
  • 2016: 3
  • 2017: 3
  • 2018: 3
It's not like there haven't been quality mid-major teams over the past five seasons.  In fact, I present 2016 Monmouth, 2017 Illinois State and 2018 Middle Tennessee as mid-major teams that belonged in the field, only to be left out in favor of a bigger name from one of those top seven conferences (usually a seventh-, eighth- or even ninth-place team from one of those leagues)!

Sadly, this doesn't seem likely to change in the near future, either.  The Committee is obsessed with "quadrant one" wins, which it's virtually impossible for mid-major teams to get once conference play starts.  Meanwhile, the seventh- or eighth-best team in the ACC is going to have ample opportunity to get those wins simply because they're required to play Duke and North Carolina night after night in conference play.  And I, for one, don't think teams should be given extra credit for playing conference games.  

Likewise, mid-majors shouldn't be expected to go undefeated in conference play.  Yet, those losses are repeatedly held against these strong mid-majors.  Who also have little to no opportunity to get these "quadrant one" wins the Committee loves so much, not just because of the conferences they play in, but because the Power 5 teams won't play them.  And, with the ACC going to a 20-game conference schedule in 2019 (and the others likely to soon follow), it'll further reduce those non-conference opportunities.

So, in other words, we've got a genuine catch-22 on our hands.  In order to get in, they need to play a stronger schedule.  But the opportunities to play those games are few and far between.  (And even when they do play a Power 5 road game, they have no idea whether or not that opponent is actually going to be good when they schedule it two years in advance.)

For mid-majors, it's becoming increasingly clear that they need to win their tournament and not leave their tournament fate up to the Committee.  Which is a shame.  Because as we've seen, the mid-majors can't just hang with the big boys.  They can beat them.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Six Mound Visits

With the new MLB schedule taking effect this season, we're just two weeks away from Opening Day!  Which means my ridiculously extensive baseball preview is coming very soon.  Which also means it's really coming down to the wire for any remaining unsigned free agents, although it no longer looks like there will be any really big names who'll be orphans come the start of the season.

It also means we'll soon see Rob Manfred's latest "pace of play" initiatives work their way into Big League ballparks (at least for April and the first part of May).  Although, this year's new speed up rule is one I can actually get on board with.  Teams will be limited to six visits to the mound over the first six innings.  This includes both the manager coming out of the dugout and the catcher coming out from behind the plate or the entire infield congregating.  They're still allowed to do it.  They're just limited to six times.

How much of a tangible impact this will actually have remains to be seen, but I think we can all agree the sheer number of conversations with the pitcher was getting ridiculous.  How many times did we see last year where it could be like the second inning and, as soon as he walks somebody, here comes the manager?  Not to mention all the mound visits that served no other purpose than to stall so that the reliever could have more time to get ready.  And I'm not even counting catchers coming out because they can't get on the same page as the pitcher.

They can still visit the mound in these situations.  They just have to stop after the sixth one.  Keep in mind, this doesn't include pitching changes, which is really what makes games grind to a halt in the late innings.  But it's definitely a start.  It makes managers and pitching coaches have to be much more selective about when they go out.  Kinda like the way they have to determine whether it's worth a replay challenge in the third inning.

One of the things that I like the most about it, though, is that now the onus is put on the pitchers to figure stuff out on their own.  They won't be able to rely on having their hand held in every situation anymore, at least not as much.  And Baseball could definitely do without all the overmanaging.  Frankly, managers should be able to trust their pitchers to get out of their own jams.  Now they're gonna have to. 

If the situation warrants a strategy or scouting meeting, that's when you use your mound visit.  Seventh inning of a tie game with Mike Trout coming up?  Absolutely go out and figure out what you want to do.  Second inning with the eight-hitter coming up?  Do you really need to talk about it?  Probably not.

Although, I would like to see a slight adjustment, and that comes with the catcher and infield visits.  Some catchers (and pitchers) are more guilty than others of having a conversation after every batter.  But sometimes the catcher goes out there just to over signs (or to relay a message to the infield).  Should that really count as a visit?  Same thing when the first baseman comes over to say something about positioning and is basically telling the pitcher that he needs to cover the bag.  Does that count too?  And what about when the pitcher walks off the mound?  If the shortstop comes up and says something to him, does that count?

Just like the ridiculously dumb no-pitch intentional walk, you'd be saving what?  45 seconds?  And, frankly, those infield "meetings" that are now prohibited (or count as a mound visit) are generally about defensive positioning or something else where you can't really be on the same page unless you actually talk about it.  Limiting the seemingly endless visits to the mound from the dugout, though?  I'm very much in favor of that.

I'd be in favor of another measure that would definitely shave some time off of games.  If you're a regular reader of this blog, it'll come as no surprise to you that one rule I'd love to see implemented would be limiting the number of throws to first base.  How many times do we see a pitcher throw over to first repeatedly before even throwing a pitch, all the while the runner is about two steps off the base?  (Albert Pujols isn't stealing!  Worry about the damn hitter!)  And, now that managers will be limited in the number of times they can visit the mound, I fear we're going to see even more unnecessary throws to first as a stall tactic so relievers can warm up.

Then there's the pitch clock.  I'll admit, the timer between innings is actually kinda nice.  As a fan, we know how long it actually is until the inning starts.  This year, the pitch clock is absolute, and the pitcher isn't necessarily guaranteed his eight warmup pitches.  Although, the penalties for violating the inning timer will be limited to warnings and fines.

We're not going to see the implementation of an actual pitch clock, which Manfred has really been pushing.  You get the sense it's just a matter of time before the owners wear the players down on this one, though.  They've had a 20-second pitch clock in the Minors for the past few years without too much push back, so you would think the resistance would actually be minimal.  Most pitchers work within that 20-second time frame, anyway, so their adjustment will likely be minimal (Sonny Gray would have to just deal with it and figure it out).

Another rule change that they're trying in the Minors this season is the international tiebreaker in extra innings.  A lot of people fear this will eventually work its way into the Majors, but I think the owners realize that change is too dramatic to make.  I'm not overly crazy about it in the Minors, either, to tell you the truth.  And I certainly don't like doing it right away when the game goes to the 10th.  You at least play the 10th, and I'd even say the 11th, then if the game is still tied, you go to the tiebreaker in the 12th.

Again, it's necessary in tournament situations like the World Baseball Classic, but those super-long extra inning games have always been an endearing part of baseball.  If they want to do it in Spring Training (when they normally don't play extra innings and games end in ties all the time), I guess I'd be fine with that.  Some people have said they'd be OK with it in the All*Star Game, too, although I'm lukewarm about even that idea.

Fortunately, it looks like the international tiebreaker isn't coming to a Major League ballpark near you anytime soon.  This might be our last year without the pitch clock, though.  As for the reduction in mound visits, that's a welcome change.  Now let's see how much time it actually saves.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

NFL's Stove Hotter Than MLB's

Baseball's Hot Stove season was a total dud this year.  The good news is that big-name free agents have found teams to play for.  The bad news is that it took until now, and they've ended up getting much smaller deals (in terms of money or years, or both) than they would've under normal circumstances.  It has brought teams like the Phillies and Padres into the free agent mix, though.

Contrast that to football.  NFL teams have been so busy they've made my head spin.  And the craziest part is none of these moves are actually official yet.  The NFL's league year doesn't start until March 15, so teams technically can't make any roster moves until then.  Yet we've heard about so many players that will be traded or cut or sign somewhere that it makes you wonder if there will be any activity after March 15.

The guys getting cut isn't a surprise.  Teams normally inform their cap casualties in advance.  And those players usually know well before that, so they start negotiating with other teams, although their options are usually limited.  Maybe that's why we're seeing so many trades.  I can't recall an NFL offseason that featured so many trades!

It all started before the playoffs were even over when the Redskins announced that they were trading for Alex Smith.  Seeing as Kirk Cousins wasn't going accept getting the franchise tag again, it didn't surprise me that Washington was looking for a new solution at quarterback, even if Alex Smith being their choice came as a bit of a surprise (for a number of reasons).  And that got all the dominoes falling.

Now liberated from Washington, Kirk Cousins became the hottest free agent quarterback available, and you knew he'd attract plenty of interest.  What's interesting is that he's headed to Minnesota.  The Vikings already had to decide which of their three quarterbacks they were going to keep.  As it turns out, none of them.  Which put three more quality QB's on the market.

Case Keenum's headed to Denver, which was a smart move by the Broncos, who've been looking for a franchise QB since Peyton Manning retired.  Of course, it's a big risk, and Keenum's got a lot to prove.  But it's definitely a risk worth taking.  Sam Bradford, meanwhile, will take over for the retired Carson Palmer in Arizona.  As for Teddy Bridgewater, he's going to be at Jet (and he'll be the starter for at least a few games until they blame him for the team sucking and bench him).

Keep in mind that none of this is official.  And that there are a ton of quarterbacks that'll be available in the draft.  Although, seeing as quarterback is the most important position on the field, it's not surprising to see teams putting a premium on getting an established veteran.  

All signs were pointing towards Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles cashing in elsewhere, but not that doesn't necessarily seem guaranteed.  A lot of people are saying he might stay with the Eagles as Carson Wentz's backup.  That hasn't stopped the Eagles from making other moves, though.  They've been one of the most active teams in the NFL, including adding Haloti Ngata along the defensive line.  And this is the team that just won the Super Bowl mind you!

Cap space is usually the reason teams are active one way or another in the NFL offseason, and Philly has a lot of cap room, which is how they're able to do all of this.  One team that doesn't have cap room is Seattle.  As a result, the Seahawks had to release Richard Sherman and Jimmy Graham.  Sherman is signing with San Francisco pretty much just to spite the Seahawks, which I think is awesome!  That's as good a reason as any to sign with your former team's division rival.  Jimmy Graham, meanwhile, is headed to Green Bay, and the Packers made room for him by releasing Jordy Nelson.

Cleveland has also frequently popped into the conversation regarding a number of players.  The Browns also have two top-five picks.  So, if nothing else, it's going to be virtually impossible for them to go 0-16 again.

I'm curious to see what else is in store once free agency really kicks into gear.  Because there's been so much movement already that it seems like there isn't much left.  Of ESPN's top 100 free agents, 30 have already signed, including eight of the top 10 (which includes re-signings like Drew Brees with the Saints).

But at least it hasn't been boring.  Ordinarily we get a little bit of a lull between the Super Bowl and the start of free agency.  This year that certainly has NOT been the case.  Instead, we've had a whirlwind.  All of this before free agency even officially starts.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Joe Women's Bracket 2018

Yesterday I unveiled my men's NCAA Tournament bracket.  Today, it's the women's turn.  And, stop me if you've heard this before, UConn is the team to beat.  Once again, the Huskies rolled through the regular season undefeated.  Once again, they'll be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.  And once again, they'll be favored to win their 12th National Championship.

Mississippi State, the team that beat UConn in last year's Final Four, is a clear No. 2.  They were also undefeated until a loss to South Carolina (the defending National Champions) in the SEC Championship Game.  Louisville and Notre Dame, meanwhile, appear to have the other two 1-seeds on lockdown.  The only question is which order the two ACC teams will be in the overall seedings (meaning which one ends up getting shipped out west).  Louisville won the ACC Tournament, so I'll give them the nod for both the Lexington Regional and the UConn avoidance.

So, that means I've got my Final Four matchups as Albany (UConn) vs. Spokane (Notre Dame) and Kansas City (Mississippi State) vs. Lexington (Louisville).  The real drama will come in when it comes to assigning the 2-seeds.  All of those seem obvious, too, but where they get sent could end up making a big difference.

Because, unlike the men's tournament, this women's field is very top-heavy (and not just because the top four seeds in each region host the first two rounds).  It'd be a surprise if a team seeded lower than third getting to Columbus (frankly, I'd even be surprised to see a 3-seed make it).  Which means other top teams like Baylor and South Carolina will be hoping for a favorable regional location more than anything else.  And by "favorable location," of course, I mean staying out of Albany.

"Top-heavy" also refers to the number of bids coming out of the top conferences.  The SEC, as usual, can expect to be well-represented.  I've got even, including four that will be at home on the opening weekend.  My other top-four seeds (which means first- and second-round home games) include a pair of additional ACC teams, three from the Big 12 and three from the Pac-12.  That accounts for 14 of the 16, with UConn and Ohio State the other two.

As for my full bracket, here it is:

ALBANY
16-Saint Francis PA at 1-Connecticut (1); 8-George Washington vs. 9-Minnesota
13-Princeton at 4-Florida State; 5-Georgia vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
14-Little Rock at 3-Ohio State; 6-Duke vs. 11-Western Kentucky
15-Stephen F. Austin at 2-Texas; 7-Arizona State vs. 10-Duquesne

SPOKANE
16-North Carolina A&T at 1-Notre Dame (4); 8-Michigan vs. 9-California
13-Drake at 4-Texas A&M; 5-South Florida vs. 12-Quinnipiac
14-Boise State at 3-Tennessee; 6-Iowa vs. 11-South Dakota State
15-Seattle at 2-Oregon; 7-Dayton vs. 10-Syracuse

KANSAS CITY
16-Grambling at 1-Mississippi State (2); 8-Miami vs. 9-Marquette
13-American at 4-Stanford; 5-Maryland vs. 12-Belmont
14-Elon at 3-NC State; 6-LSU vs. 11-Rutgers
15-Liberty at 2-Baylor; 7-Oregon State vs. 10-Green Bay

LEXINGTON
16-UC Davis at 1-Louisville (3); 8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Central Michigan
13-Northern Colorado at 4-UCLA; 5-Missouri vs. 12-Gonzaga
14-Mercer at 3-West Virginia; 6-DePaul vs. 11-Nebraska
15-Maine at 2-South Carolina; 7-Virginia vs. 10-Villanova

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Joe Men's Bracket 2018

It's been an interesting year in college basketball to say the least.  It started with a scandal that left a dark cloud over the entire season., and there hasn't been a single dominant team to capture our attention.  Trae Young has, but we probably aren't going to see him in the Tournament (even though Oklahoma was arguably the best team in the country in mid-January).

But, that means we're probably in store for a great NCAA Tournament.  There's roughly a dozen teams that don't just have legitimate Final Four aspirations.  I think any of them could win it.  This tournament is going to be so wide open that I really don't think seeds will matter at all.  It's really all about the matchups.

Virginia, Villanova and Kansas have all but locked up No. 1 seeds, with the fourth likely to go to either Xavier or Duke.  I thought it was Duke's for the taking...until they lost to North Carolina in the ACC Semifinals.  Which puts the Musketeers back in the driver's seat for that last 1-seed.  Although, they'll likely get shipped out west, where Arizona and Gonzaga will likely be waiting without having to travel.

The top overall seed will almost certainly be Virginia, which they should be based on their body of work.  The Cavaliers likely won't be favored to win the title, though.  In fact, I'd be more surprised if they make the Final Four than if they don't.  Virginia's a very good regular season team.  But their style of play makes them vulnerable come tourney time.  Which I think makes them vulnerable.

We're also going to see some new blood in the field and some familiar faces miss out.  Wisconsin is below .500 on the season, so their tournament streak is over.  Louisville and Syracuse, meanwhile, are bubble teams that will likely end up on the outside looking in (there's no way that Louisville makes the tournament after the scandal).

Speaking of the bubble, Middle Tennessee's loss in the Conference USA Tournament definitely shook it up.  Because I don't see how the Blue Raiders aren't in the field (although I've said this in the past about teams that ended up in the NIT).  Same with Nevada, who got upset in the Mountain West Tournament.  Saint Mary's might be the only other team outside of the top eight conferences with a shot at making the field.

As it is, I've got teams from 11 different conference earning at-large bids.  The SEC had a really good year, and I've got them leading the way with eight NCAA teams, followed by seven each from the ACC in Big 12, then the Big East with six.  Here's all 68:

SOUTH
Charlotte: 1-Virginia (1) vs. 16-LIU Brooklyn/Texas Southern, 8-Arkansas vs. 9-Creighton
San Diego: 4-West Virginia vs. 13-Montana, 5-Wichita State vs. 12-Western Kentucky
Wichita: 3-Kentucky vs. 14-UNC Greensboro, 6-Miami vs. 11-Loyola Chicago
Nashville: 2-Purdue vs. 15-Lipscomb, 7-TCU vs. 10-Butler

WEST
Detroit: 1-Xavier (4) vs. 16-Harvard, 8-Missouri vs. 9-Kansas State
Boise: 4-Gonzaga vs. 13-Murray State, 5-Ohio State vs. 12-Toledo
San Diego: 3-Arizona vs. 14-Georgia State, 6-Florida vs. 11-Texas/Middle Tennessee
Charlotte: 2-Duke vs. 15-UMBC, 7-Providence vs. 10-Nevada

EAST
Pittsburgh: 1-Villanova (2) vs. 16-UC Irvine/Radford, 8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Alabama
Boise: 4-Michigan State vs. 13-South Dakota State, 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-New Mexico State
Dallas: 3-Tennessee vs. 14-Iona, 6-Houston vs. 11-Saint Mary's
Nashville: 2-North Carolina vs. 15-Wright State, 7-USC vs. 10-St. Bonaventure

MIDWEST
Wichita: 1-Kansas (3) vs. 16-Hampton, 8-Rhode Island vs. 9-UCLA
Dallas: 4-Auburn vs. 13-Charleston, 5-Clemson vs. 12-Oklahoma State/Arizona State
Detroit: 3-Michigan vs. 14-Bucknell, 6-Seton Hall vs. 11-New Mexico
Pittsburgh: 2-Cincinnati vs. 15-Southeast Louisiana, 7-NC State vs. 10-Texas A&M

Final Four: South vs. West, East vs. Midwest

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Mr. 4:00

One of the most significant names in the history of track & field, in all of sports really, passed away over the weekend.  Sir Roger Bannister, the man who broke the mythical 4:00 barrier in the mile.  That achievement made him a legend, and that legend only grew when he retired from the sport to embark on a medical career. 

He never won an Olympic medal, yet his name is one of the most revered in his sport.  In fact, his name is right up there with Jackie Robinson and Pele and others who transcend their sport.  Even people who know nothing about track know that Roger Bannister ran the first 4:00 mile.  It's an achievement that's still revered 65 years after the fact.  They don't run the mile internationally anymore.  Yet they still keep the mile world record because of its historical significance.

All these years later, it's still a mythical standard, even if the top world-class men's milers run well below that now (the current world record is 3:43.13).  It's not the world record, but it's the mark that everyone strives to reach, and celebrates when they do it for the first time.  It's like running the 100 in 10 seconds or the 200 in 20.  Or, for women, running the 800 in 2:00 or high jumping two meters.

And everyone will remember that Roger Bannister was the first.  Over the past few days, there have been a number of Bannister tribute articles in various publications around the world.  I saw one that actually had the gall to argue that he wasn't actually first, and that someone else had run a mile in under four minutes a few weeks earlier.  Well, you know what?  Even if that is the case, it was never documented.  So, you can claim it all you want, but you've got nobody to prove it, so it's like it never happened.  It's like the guy who said he "invented" the Fosbury Flop style of high jumping that will always be credited to Dick Fosbury.

As far as the world is concerned, Roger Bannister was the first to do something that was once thought impossible.  He's track's Edmund Hillary or Roald Amundsen or Neil Armstrong.  Others have climbed Everest and been to the South Pole and walked on the Moon.  But they'll always be remembered as the first.  They set the standard for those that have followed to aim for.  Just like Roger Bannister did.

In the weeks leading up to Bannister's historic four-minute mile, it wasn't a question of if it could be done.  It was a question of when.  And who.  Australian John Landy and American Wes Santee also sought to be the first to break the four-minute barrier.  But, on May 6, 1954, it was Bannister who did it.  Landy ran his 4:00-mile six weeks later, then they both ran under 4:00 at the 1954 Commonwealth Games, with Bannister lowering the world record in what was almost immediately dubbed the "Race of the Century."  Santee, meanwhile, never got there.  The best time he ever ran was 4:00.5.

The fact that Bannister did all this while a full-time medical student makes his feat that much more impressive.  Track & field was still decades away from being a professional sport where athletes could train full-time.  He never viewed running as a profession, and, in fact, Bannister stopped running late in 1954 to pursue a career in neurology, and he always considered his achievements in this field to be more significant than his four-minute mile.

However, he will always be known for the four-minute mile.  It's the stuff of legend.  It's why he was named the first-ever Sports Illustrated Sportsperson of the Year.  It's why he's been the subject of so many books and movies.  It's why the entire track & field world felt the loss of his passing.  And it's why the IAAF took a pause during the World Indoor Championships on Sunday to pay tribute to a man who meant so much to so many.

When London hosted the Olympics in 2012, I was certain Roger Bannister was going to be the final torchbearer.  He wasn't, of course, but it would've been so fitting if he had been.  Roger Bannister never won an Olympic medal.  He finished fourth in the 1500 in 1952 and was no longer running competitively by the time the 1956 Olympics came around.  Lighting the cauldron would've been his Olympic moment.

It's funny.  As the years went on, Roger Bannister didn't think his four-minute mile was that big a deal.  He was wrong.  Because if it wasn't that big a deal, he wouldn't be remembered. 

That's most certainly not the case, though.  Roger Bannister will be always be remembered.  He'll always be the man who ran the first four-minute mile.  His name is one of the most legendary in track & field history, and it will forever remain that way. 

Legends never die.  Roger Bannister is a legend.  And his impact on the sport of track & field will never be forgotten.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

The Championships of DQ's

There were plenty of great moments at the World Indoor Championships.  My girlfriend Sandi Morris won her first world title, Poland beat the USA and set a world record in that incredible men's 4x4, and the Brits thrilled the home crowd with a number of medal-winning performances.  But all anyone is talking about is the same problem that plagued last year's World Outdoor Championships--the absurd number of disqualifications, many of which were for ticky-tack violations.

Now, before getting further into this, it's worth noting that last year's Outdoor Worlds were in London and this year's Indoor Worlds were in Birmingham.  Commentators and fans alike definitely noticed how overzealous the British officials were when it came to disqualifying athletes last year, and it only got worse this year.  I'm not saying there's any direct correlation or favoritism involved, but a high number of these DQ's seemed to favor British athletes, which also didn't go unnoticed.

Perhaps the biggest disqualification "highlight" from Birmingham was an entire heat being DQ'ed in the first round of the men's 400.  One committed a false start.  The other four were all DQ'ed after the fact for lane violations.  We also saw the original gold medalist in that event find out he was DQ'ed while doing a post-meet TV interview.  The silver medalist was also DQ'ed, meaning the guy who "won" the world title was actually the third one across the finish line.

Meanwhile, I'm still not sure what the actual results of the women's 4x4 were.  Jamaica was DQ'ed for a violation on one of the exchanges, moving Great Britain from fourth to bronze.  (No problem with this one.  The Jamaican clearly changed places with the Ukranian while waiting for the exchange, which is allowed in the NCAA but not internationally, where you can't change places once the incoming runners reach a certain point.)  Then the Brits were DQ'ed, too, giving the bronze to Ukraine.  Then the Brits were reinstated.  It was enough to make your head spin.

The fact that this is confusing is one of the many problems with the wave of DQ's that have plagued the last two global championships.  Let's not forget what happened last year: Colleen Quigley took one step inside the line on the water jump (an area that's supposed to be marked off by cones, but wasn't) in her steeplechase prelim, but they felt that was enough to DQ her.  Meanwhile, Mo Farah, a British icon, took multiple steps inside the rail during the 10,000, but, of course, wasn't DQ'ed.

In Birmingham, most of the DQ's were for lane violations.  The IAAF tried to have the officials' backs by offering some ridiculous rationalization that basically blamed the athletes, saying they needed to "better adapt" to the subtleties of indoor running.  But, while coming around the curve in tight quarters on a banked track at full speed, even the most experienced of indoor runners may cut in a step early or take a step on the inside while trying to regain their balance, etc.  

Technically, these are all violations that can result in a DQ, so the officials were just following the rules.  But, the IAAF rulebook is long, archaic and could definitely use some updating, a fact that IAAF higher-ups freely admit.  So, maybe common sense should prevail over strict adherence to the rulebook.  Especially if there's no advantage gained, is it really necessary to DQ someone for one wrong step, which seems particularly cruel in distance races?

For me the frustration comes less from the amount of DQ's but the ambiguity of them.  Every time they announce a DQ, the TV broadcast shows a replay of the violation.  If it's clear, that's one thing.  A false start is usually pretty obvious.  The runner who false started usually starts walking off the track before the official shows them the red card.  Likewise, if you see a fall or think there might be some sort of obstruction in a distance race, you're not surprised to see someone get DQ'ed as a result.  Or if you pass outside the zone in a relay.  No one has a problem with any of these clear-cut violations.

But that wasn't the case at World Indoors.  Not by a long shot.  I still don't know what all those guys in that heat did to get DQ'ed.  And I had the benefit of seeing the replay!  Imagine how the people in the arena feel!  If a violation isn't painfully obvious on replay, a DQ doesn't seem appropriate.  Especially when you consider the stage.

No one comes to a track meet, especially a World Championships, wanting to see people get disqualified for less-than-obvious minor violations.  In fact, part of the sport's beauty is its simplicity.  The first person across the line is the winner (unless they were a Russian from 2012-14).  You can't get more straightforward than that.  Which makes after-the-fact disqualifications that much more frustrating.  Then you throw in the protests and potential reinstatements, and you might wait an hour until the results are actually official.

Track & field is a great sport.  But it keeps shooting itself in the foot with all of these DQ's, especially since so many of them seem so unnecessary.  If you're turning off the track people (which you are), how are you supposed to attract the non-track people, who otherwise only watch during the Olympics?  Especially now that you're looking for a new star in the wake of Usain Bolt's and Mo Farah's retirements.

Maybe we're reading too much into this.  It might just be a case of the officials in Great Britain being bigger sticklers than the officials in other countries.  Or, maybe it truly is highlighting a larger problem.  Either way, the IAAF has plenty of time to fix it.  The next major international championship meet isn't until 18 months from now.  Maybe they'll have it figured out by then.  Whether the Russians will be back in the fold by then, that's a totally different question.