Drumroll please. Fans, we've arrived at the moment you've all been eagerly anticipating at least since the Cardinals sipped champagne while wearing ugly t-shirts in Octobor. It's time for Part I of the 2012 baseball preview! Just like last year, we're dividing it into six parts, looking at each division individually. And we'll start with the division I know best--the AL East.
I think the Red Sox's collapse last season had a lot to do with the ridiculous addition of an unnecessary second wild card team in each league. The only potentially good element of that is the added emphasis on winning your division that now exists. That's especially important in the AL East, which usually contributes the "first" wild card. They've also changed it so that the Yankees and Rays or Yankees and Red Sox can play in the Division Series. That's going to make this division race very interesting. Especially since the Yankees and Red Sox end the season with three at the Stadium.
1. New York Yankees-Even with all the changes everyone else has made, I think this is the Yankees' division to lose. Their big problem last year was a lack of starting pitching behind CC Sabathia (even though they went with six starters for the last two months of the season). Well, within a span of about an hour in December, that problem was solved. Jesus Montero (who I was never really sold on), the supposed starting DH this season, was shipped to Seattle for fireballer Michael Pineda on the same day the Yankees acquired Hiroki Kuroda. Oh yeah, Andy Pettitte announced last week that he's coming back, too. They were even able to afford to exile A.J. Burnett to Pittsburgh. I'm not sure how this seven starter thing is going to work out, but it's better to have too much pitching than not enough. After Jorge Posada retired, it was just assumed that Montero would be the DH this season. Once he was traded for Pineda, the plan became DH-by-committee, using the position to give the regulars a quasi-day off while still keeping their bat in the lineup. So much for that plan. The Yankees went out and got Raul Ibanez, who can also play the outfield, to DH against righties. That takes away a bench spot from somebody like Chris Dickerson (a useful fifth outfielder), but when you've got Raul Ibanez hitting seventh, you've got a pretty good lineup. Hitting's never been the Yankees' problem, though. This year, they should have more pitching than just CC bridging the gap to that insane trio of Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano at the end.
Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Curtis Granderson-CF, Robinson Cano-2B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Mark Teixeira-1B, Nick Swisher-RF, Raul Ibanez-DH, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Rotation: CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Freddy Garcia
Closer: Mariano Rivera
Projected Record: 100-62
2. Tampa Bay Rays-The Rays used that ridiculous September run to make the playoffs on the last day last season, and I still think they're the second-best team in the AL East. The reason why is pitching. David Price and James Shields are studs. Jeremy Hellickson was the Rookie of the Year last season, and Matt Moore, who started (and won) Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rangers out of necessity, will be in the rotation full-time this year. The lineup is, obviously, anchored by Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton. Matt Joyce came into his own last year, as well, and he even made the All-Star team. Joyce shouldn't have to worry about sharing time in right. Leave him there and put Ben Zobrist at second. There's no need to play Zobrist at six different positions anymore. Tampa Bay's best lineup features Zobrist at second. Desmond Jennings appears to be ready for the majors, and he's penciled in as the Opening Day left fielder. If he can give them production out of the leadoff spot, it'll be like Carl Crawford never left. They've also brought Luke Scott in from Baltimore to DH. It'll be interesting to see how Scott does in a different environment. The Orioles tried him in the outfield last year, and that didn't work, so a return to DH shoud suit him. And Carlos Pena's back after one miserable season with the Cubs. Pena was a star during his first tour of duty with the Rays, but he was really bad in Chicago. If the Carlos Pena of old returns to Tampa Bay, that's another dangerous bat in the middle of the Rays' lineup.
Lineup: Desmond Jennings-LF, B.J. Upton-CF, Evan Longoria-3B, Carlos Pena-1B, Matt Joyce-RF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Luke Scott-DH, Jose Molina-C, Sean Rodriguez-SS
Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth
Projected Record: 95-67 (1st Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox-The complete debaucle that was last September led to a complete overhaul in Beantown. Terry Franconca's out, Bobby Valentine's. Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek? Both retired. Bobby V brings a completely different culture to the clubhouse. Starting pitching was a big part of the problem last September. It didn't really come as a surprise to hear about what the Red Sox starters were doing on the days they weren't pitching. Well, that's not going to happen anymore. And those guys are going to be under the most scrutiny from a notoriously tough fan base. They didn't really do much to enhance that rotation during the offseason, either. And I'm not sure about moving Daniel Bard from the bullpen into the rotation. Closer Jonathan Papelbon went to the Phillies as a free agent, and they replaced him with Andrew Bailey, who isn't as good. Boston's obviously going to hit. There's no question about that. But Carl Crawford needs to live up to his contract. I also don't get the Marco Scutaro trade. They got rid of their starting shortstop and replaced him with that wonderful tag team of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto. I'm also curious to see how right fielder Cody Ross will do switching leagues. But, in fairness, J.D. Drew didn't really give the Red Sox much, so it's not like Ross will need to do a lot. They're the third-best team in this division, and they'll have to settle for fighting it out with the Rangers for the second wild card. That final three-game series at Yankee Stadium could determine whether they make the playoffs or not.
Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, Carl Crawford-LF, Cody Ross-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Nick Punto-SS
Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Closer: Andrew Bailey
Projected Record: 92-70
4. Toronto Blue Jays-The BLUE Jays got new uniforms! The black and whatever that gray/silver color was are gone! No team is helped by the addition of the second wild card more than Toronto, but competing in the AL East is always going to be tough. I at least give the Blue Jays credit for trying. However, they need to prove that they're more than a one-man team. And the incredibly overrated Jose Bautista has to develop into more than a one-trick pony. The guys around him are good, but not great. There are some potential future stars in that mix, though, in Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus. If they all hit the way everybody thinks they can, you've got some protection for Bautista that goes beyond Adam Lind and Travis Snyder. Once they stop paying Vernon Wells to play for the Angels, the Blue Jays will have a little more money to spend on veteran free agents. Until then, they need those three guys to produce. Pitching-wise, they've got as solid a 1-2 punch as anybody in Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. The bullpen is much improved with the addition of former Red Francisco Cordero to be the closer. Toronto's going to provide fits for the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but will ultimately end up lingering around .500. But like I said, the Blue Jays can be scary. Good teams won't want to face them.
Lineup: Yunel Escobar-SS, Kelly Johnson-2B, Jose Bautista-RF, Adam Lind-1B, Travis Snyder-DH, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, J.P. Arencibia-C, Rajai Davis-LF
Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Kyle Drabek
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Projected Record: 81-81
5. Baltimore Orioles-The poor Orioles. No matter how good their team looks on paper, they always appear destined to finish fifth in the AL East. And Baltimore's got so many good young players that they'd be a contender in any other division. Now that they've jettisoned Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero and Luke Scott, they've eliminated three high-strikeout veteran guys and opened up those positions for talented younger players. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are legitimate rising stars, and Brian Roberts is one of the best leadoff men in the business. Chris Davis is projected to be the Opening Day starter at first base, and he'll provide almost the same number of strikeouts as Mark Reynolds. Reynolds at least makes up for the strikeouts with his power. Davis will need to do something offensively to justify staying in the lineup, though. But the lineup has never been the Orioles' problem. It's always been pitching. And it still is. I think Brian Matusz is better than his 1-9 record last season indicated, and Jake Arrieta ins't bad, either. The title of "ace" on this year's Baltimore staff is evidently going to rookie Wei-Yin Chen. Making a rookie your nominal ace always seems risky, but the Orioles probably figure they've got nothing to lose. They'll give the Big Three some fits and could have a hand in determining which one wins the division. I think 75 wins is an optimistic goal, but also one that's attainable.
Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Adam Jones-CF, Nick Markakis-RF, Matt Wieters-C, Mark Reynolds-3B, Nolan Reimold-LF, Wilson Betemit-DH, Chris Davis-1B, J.J. Hardy-SS
Rotation: Wei-Yin Chen, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel
Closer: Jim Johnson
Projected Record: 74-88
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