We've arrived at Championship Week. Selection Sunday is less than a week away, and a number of teams have already punched their tourney tickets. The teams that are already in are all from one-bid leagues. Sure, you'll get an at-large here and there from the Missouri Valley Conference (Wichita State) or West Coast Conference (BYU, Gonzaga-St. Mary's loser), but, for the most part, the at-larges are going to the big boys. With the BCS conference tournaments on tap for later this week and the weekend, here's a look at how I think things will shake down and how they'll effect the bubble:
ACC-The ACC Tournament moves to Atlanta this year. North Carolina got the 1-seed by beating Duke at Cameron on Saturday night. But in the ACC Tournament, that rarely seems to matter. Duke always wins it. If they do, I think they get a 1-seed in the Big Dance. Florida State and Virginia have the other two byes. They're both fine. NC State's the 5-seed and isn't in yet. If they beat Virginia and North Carolina to reach the final, they will be. As for my pick, I'm going with Duke over Carolina in the title game.
Big East-How loaded is the Big East? Well, Louisville is the 7-seed and defending National Champion UConn is the 9-seed. UConn was the 9-seed in this tournament last year, too, and won five games in five days to take the title. They won't have Kemba Walker single-handedly deciding to win a championship this year, though. I hope the Huskies knock off West Virginia in the second round before the Mountaineers leave the conference high and dry to go to the Big 12 (bye!), but they won't beat Syracuse. The Cincinnati-Georgetown winner can, though. I think Louisville beats Marquette in the quarters before losing to Notre Dame, which cuts down the Madison Square Garden nets for the first time after knocking off Syracuse in the final. As for the Tournament, 10 teams are solidly in, five are definitely out, and South Florida's on the bubble. A quarterfinal victory over Notre Dame definitely gets the Bulls in, but I think one win ought to do it. Ditto for Seton Hall, which I think is in anyway unless there are some bid-stealing upsets in other conferences.
Big Ten-An extra team means an extra game in the Big Ten Tournament this year. No more bye for the 5-seed. Although, playing Penn State is as close to a first round bye as Indiana can get. After the Big East, this might be the deepest league in the country. Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan all went 13-5 this season, while Wisconsin-Indiana would be the 4-5 game. All five of those teams are capable of winning this thing. If Michigan State wins it, they're in the discussion for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament (that doesn't really matter, they'll be in the Final Four anyway). And what about Northwestern? Is this finally the year when the Wildcats make their first NCAA appearance? They won't win the Big Ten, but, yes, I think they do go dancing. As for the conference title, Michigan State beats Ohio State.
Big 12-Texas A&M doesn't want to be in the Big 12 anymore. OK, after you lose the 8-9 game to Oklahoma, see ya Aggies! Have fun getting your asses kicked in the SEC. Missouri's a little trickier, though. They're the 2-seed. They could win the Big 12 before splitting. Fortunately, Kansas wins the Big 12 every year. That's not going to change this year. They'll beat Missouri in the final. No real bubble talk here. The six teams that have first round byes should be in. Texas is the only one that has to slightly worry, but a victory over Iowa State in the quarters should take care of that uncertainty.
Pac-12-It still looks and sounds weird to call this conference the Pac-12, but they definitely get credit for actually having the correct number of schools in the conference name. This one's the most interesting tourney of the lot. Depending on who you ask, there are only two or three guaranteed bids in this conference, so a tourney run by somebody other than Washington or Cal could shrink the bubble. For the record, I think Arizona's in, too. Unless somebody else wins the tournament, this is a three-bid league. The most likely candidate to crash the party is Oregon. Even though they're the 3-seed, the Ducks probably need to win the conference tournament to get in. I don't think anybody who plays on the first day has a chance to make that run. As for the winner, I'm going with Cal. They knock off an Arizona team that upsets Washington in the semis.
SEC-This is the first year since the conference expanded to 12 teams that they didn't split the SEC into divisions for basketball. The teams in the former SEC West may want to rethink that idea. All four byes went to teams from the SEC East (Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida). Three of them are safe. The Vols are on the bubble. But, in my opinion, second-place in the SEC should get you in. Alabama and Mississippi State are probably in, too, but they might want to make a run in this tournament just to be sure. I find it highly unlikely anyone beats Kentucky. The Wildcats ran the table in the SEC and are far and away the best team in the nation. They beat Mississippi State in the final.
And these three conferences are usually classified as "mid-majors" even though they're not. They aren't the six BCS conferences, but they're certainly a cut above the mid-majors. They consistently put multiple teams in the tournament. I like to make the distinction of these as the "majors" (as opposed to the "high majors," which are the BCS schools):
Atlantic 10-Temple and Saint Louis are in no matter what. Xavier is most definitely on the bubble. If they don't win the tournament, they should hope that either one of those teams does. Anybody outside of those three would be a bid stealer. Bubble teams need not worry, though. Temple beats Saint Louis in the final.
Conference USA-Poor Conference USA. It keeps losing teams to the Big East, and it won't even exist in a couple of years. And if Memphis wins the tournament, it'll be the rare year when this is a one-bid league. Southern Miss is on the bubble, but probably ends up on the outside looking in (although, UAB, which should've been out, did get one of those extra three at-large bids and played in the "First Four" last year). I've got those two meeting in the final, with Memphis earning the automatic bid and making Southern Miss sweat it out.
Mountain West-With BYU and Utah leaving, the Mountain West only has eight teams this year. Three of them are solid Tournament teams (San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV). Colorado State could be dangerous, though, and the Rams need to win the title to avoid the NIT. They'll beat TCU in the quarters, the Horned Frogs' last Mountain West game before leaving for the Big 12, but won't beat San Diego State. The other semi, between New Mexico and UNLV, will be a great matchup. On their home floor, I think UNLV wins that, then knocks off San Diego State in the Championship Game.
That's the way I see it entering Championship Week. But keep in mind, there's going to be somebody that makes a run in one of these nine tournaments that makes the bubble teams very nervous. There's also going to be a team that helps its NCAA seeding tremendously and sets itself up for a run in the Big Dance (think 2011 Connecticut Huskies). The only question is: Who?
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