With the start of the 2012 MLB season finally upon us, it's time to finish off the baseball preview with Part VI: The NL West. This is one of the most wide-open divisions in all of baseball. Other than San Diego, everybody has a chance to win it. The Giants have the best pitching by far, as well as probably the best team, while the Dodgers have the best player, the Rockies have the best 1-2 punch, and the Diamondbacks are the defending division champs. This race will probably go right down to the wire, and it wouldn't surprise me if more than two teams are involved. In fact, I think at least one of the wild cards is coming out of the NL West.
1. San Francisco Giants-We can all agree that Buster Posey is one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, right? The Giants' title defense came to a screeching halt last year when Posey was knocked out for the season when he broke his leg in May. Without him, they couldn't score. Now, the inability to score is a problem for any team. But this one actually has the pitching to get by on 2-3 runs a night. San Francisco's rotation is the best in baseball. There's no need to put "arguably" in front of that. There's no question. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are the best 1-2 punch in baseball, then throw in Madison Bumgarner at No. 3. Ryan Vogelsong, last year's recipient of the Omar Infante Award as Most Random All-Star, will start the season on the DL, which moves Barry Zito into the fourth spot in the rotation for the time being. Zito's not worth all the money they're paying him, but their rotation is so deep it made Jonathan Sanchez expendable. Brian Wilson needs to shave and act like a normal person, but that might take away some of his abilities as a lights-out closer. Other than Posey, the big boppers in the lineup are Aubrey Huff and Pablo Sandoval. They need big years from both of them. I like the addition of Angel Pagan in center field. He's certainly an upgrade, both in center field and the leadoff spot, over Andres Torres. Melky Cabrera was the piece they received from the Royals in the Sanchez trade, and he's penciled in left field. The Giants don't need to hit that much. They just need to hit enough and have everybody stay healthy. It worked two years ago.
Lineup: Angel Pagan-CF, Melky Cabrera-LF, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Buster Posey-C, Aubrey Huff-1B, Freddy Sanchez-2B, Nate Schierholtz-RF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Rotation: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito
Closer: Brian Wilson
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Los Angeles Dodgers-This pick might seem out of left field, but now that the ownership situation is settled, I think the Dodgers could be real contenders this season. For starters, they've got one of the most overlooked great players in the game--Matt Kemp. It's not fair how good that guy is. Kemp was the only thing that made the Dodgers at all worth watching last season. He's the kind of player you build a team around, which the Dodgers are smart enough to be doing. Throw in Andre Ethier, James Loney and Dee Gordon and you've got a very stacked lineup for years to come. Then you've got a rotation headlined by defending Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw's your ace, and you've got the solid if not spectacular Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano behind him. The Dodgers need to get all the innings they can out of their starters, though, because that bullpen is definitely a weakness. Losing Jonathan Broxton is going to hurt. I'm not even sure who they plan on making the closer, and that "closer by committee" thing never works. But Don Mattingly spent enough time learning under Joe Torre to figure out the little things like that. Besides, Magic Johnson and the rest of the new owners are desperate to turn the Dodgers back into the franchise they should be. They'll do whatever it takes to win, especially with Albert and Co. across town. If they're in the race around the trade deadline, expect the Dodgers to be buyers.
Lineup: Dee Gordon-SS, Mark Ellis-2B, Matt Kemp-CF, Andre Ethier-RF, James Loney-1B, Juan Rivera-LF, Juan Uribe-3B, A.J. Ellis-C
Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano
Closer: Javy Guerra
Projected Record: 93-69 (1st Wild Card)
3. Colorado Rockies-I don't know why, but I really think the Colorado Rockies have a chance to be really, really good this season. The only problem I can forsee is the pitching staff. The Rockies are going to score a bunch of runs, but pitching could be this team's Achilles heel. They traded their best pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez, to the Indians in the middle of last season (and Jimenez, of course, just got suspended for throwing at Troy Tulowitziki in a Spring Training game), leaving Jeremy Guthrie as their "ace." Jamie Moyer's about as old as the State of Colorado, yet he made the team as the No. 3 starter, despite missing all of last season after Tommy John surgery. It's quite a risk. But that lineup is so filthy it's ridiculous. Start with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, two stars in their prime that form the heart of the lineup. Tulowitzki is destined to become the Face of the Rockies. But he won't inherit the title until Todd Helton actually retires. The guy responsible for bringing Peyton to Denver (he was Peyton's teammate on the Tennessee football team) is still applying his trade as the Rockies' first baseman. Colorado has also brought in veterans Michael Cuddyer and Ramon Hernandez, who'll fit well into that lineup. The Marco Scutaro trade makes about as much sense for the Rockies as is does for the Red Sox, though (aka, none). I'm curious to see how he'll do at second base. The Rockies are the exact opposite of the Giants. San Francisco wants to win games 3-2. Colorado's going to win a lot of 8-6 games. Can they win enough of them to make a playoff push?
Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Marco Scutaro-2B, Carlos Gonzalez-LF, Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Todd Helton-1B, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Ramon Hernandez-C, Jordan Pacheco-3B
Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie, Jhoulys Chacin, Jamie Moyer, Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz
Closer: Rafael Betancourt
Projected Record: 89-73
4. Arizona Diamondbacks-A year after being the most surprise division champion of 2011, I think the Diamondbacks come back to earth this season. Everything went right for them last year, and so many guys had career years that you can't expect them all to do it again. Regardless, Arizona has a very good manager (Kirk Gibson) and enough talent to contend, at least for a while, in 2012. Ian Kennedy is Exhibit A among that group of guys who need to prove that their 2011 seasons weren't a fluke. Kennedy went 21-4 last season. In my opinion, he'll be lucky to win 15 this year. Trevor Cahill's a nice pickup. He doesn't have to be the ace in Arizona like he was in Oakland. And they've got a very good closer in J.J. Putz. As for the lineup, outside of Justin Upton and Chris Young, I'm not sure there's anybody that I'm crazy about. Stephen Drew's decent, but again, you've got to sell me on the Diamondbacks as more than just a one-year wonder. The big offensive addition is Jason Kubel, who's really a DH. The problem is there's no DH in the National League, though, so Kubel will be stuck out there in left field. I guess they're going to tell Young that he has to cover enough ground in center to play both positions. But for a team in desperate need of power, they need to find a way to have Kubel's bat in the lineup, so left field it is. Arizona's an enigma. Which team are they? Are they the one that won the division last season or the one that went 65-97 the year before? I think they're probably somewhere in the middle.
Lineup: Stephen Drew-SS, Aaron Hill-2B, Chris Young-CF, Justin Upton-RF, Jason Kubel-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Ryan Roberts-3B
Rotation: Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, Joe Saunders, Josh Collmenter
Closer: J.J. Putz
Projected Record: 86-76
5. San Diego Padres-Unlike the rest of the division, the only thing the San Diego Padres are going to contend for this season is the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 Draft. Much like Houston, the Padres have absolutely no chance of competing in 2012. After losing Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox prior to last season, the Padres saw closer Heath Bell go to the Marlins as a free agent this offseason. They also traded their ace, Mat Latos, to Cincinnati. However, they got Edinson Volquez and Yonder Alonso back from the Reds. That trade could end up being a steal for the Padres. This is Alonso's first chance to be an everyday player, and he jumps immediately into the middle of a Padres lineup that's actually worse at producing runs than the one in San Francisco. The Padres have absolutely no power. They hit only 91 home runs as a team last season. I didn't think a number that low was even possible until I saw it in Sports Illustrated. Their best "power guy" is Carlos Quentin, who had 24 home runs for the White Sox last season. I think leadoff hitter Cameron Maybin has tremendous upside, but they don't have any RBI guys other than Quentin. While they're probably not going to get there, 100 losses is a definite possibility. The Padres aren't the worst team in the National League, though. That honor goes to the Houston Astros.
Lineup: Cameron Maybin-CF, Orlando Hudson-2B, Chase Headley-3B, Carlos Quentin-LF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Nick Hundley-C, Will Venable-RF, Jason Bartlett-SS
Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley, Tim Stauffer
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 64-98
And now that all three divisions are complete, it's time to take a look at my projected NL playoff field. In the wild card game, it'll be the Dodgers hosting the Marlins. I think the win goes to the Dodgers, who then move on to a Division Series matchup with their archrivals from San Francisco. The Dodger lineup is good, but Giants pitching is better. The other NLDS is a rematch of 2010, when Roy Halladay and the Phillies completely dominated Cincinnati. I think the Reds win a game this time, but not the series. That gives us a Giants-Phillies NLCS for the second time in three years, and just like in 2010, I think San Francisco walks away with the pennant.
For those of you who don't remember, I've got Albert's Boys winning the AL pennant, setting up a rematch of the 2002 World Series. That one was all about Barry Bonds, but it was the Angels that ultimately won the championship. History has a strange way of repeating itself (just ask the New York Giants or, better yet, the Patriots). That bodes well for the Angels, who begin the Albert Pujols Era with their second World Series title.
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