Now that I've taken a look at all three American League divisions, it's time to move over to the Senior Circuit. The National League has won consecutive All-Star Games, and two National League teams--the Giants and Cardinals--have won the last two World Series, but the exodus of star players to the American League has swung the pendulum back in that direction, I think. While there are a number of good teams in the National League, I think most people would agree with me that the four best teams in baseball (Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Rangers) are all in the American League. But that's not to say there won't be some enjoyable National League baseball this season. Just the opposite in fact. I think the National League is wide open, meaning there will be a lot of good races.
The race that has potential to be the best one is in the NL East. The Phillies have been the class of this division for the last five years, but that could easily change this year. With their new name, new logo and new ballpark, the Marlisn have a new attitude. They're actually going to try to be competitive. The Braves had the wild card won last year until their September collapse, and they've got their nucleus back. And I think the Nationals are going to be much better. Poor Mets.
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Even though the rest of the division has closed the gap, the Phillies still have the most talented team in the NL East. The injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley obviously aren't good, but if the Phillies can tread water with both of them out of the lineup, I can easily see them taking off if Howard and Utley stay healthy and productive once they work their way back. As an insurance policy, they've brought in Ty Wigginton, who can play all over the field. They also brought back Jim Thome, which I don't really understand, since all he is is a left-handed pinch hitter. But even with Utley and Howard out, that lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, etc., is more than equipped to hold its own. John Mayberry's nowhere near the hitter Raul Ibanez is, but he'll probably give them better defense in left field, which is good, since the Phillies are all about pitching. The Big Three--Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels--all made the All-Star team last year, but Halladay was outpitched by Chris Carpenter in Game 5 of the Division Series, sending the incredibly-favored Phillies home earlier than they expected. Roy Oswalt's a free agent and still hasn't signed with anybody, but the Phillies apparently don't have any interest in bringing him back. They're filling out the rotation with Vance Worley and Joe Blanton. Closer Ryan Madson went to the Reds as a free agent. Their new closer is former Red Sok Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon held his own in the pressure-cooker of the AL East, but he also blew the season finale in Baltimore to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs last season. For the money they're paying him, Papelbon better produce in Philadelphia.
Lineup* (when all starters are healthy): Jimmy Rollins-SS, Placido Polanco-3B, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Hunter Pence-RF, Shane Victorino-CF, John Mayberry-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C
Rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Miami Marlins-The Florida Marlins tried to be good a grand total of twice in their 19-year history. They won the World Series both times. Now the only franchise with more World Series titles than division titles (none), as well as the only one to never lose a playoff series, has been reborn as the "Miami" Marlins. And, at least at first glance, they've given every indication that they're in it for the long haul. No club was more active in free agency, signing Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, and making a colossal offer to Albert Pujols. Albert, of course, went to the Angels instead, but the Marlins still look like they'll be a contender for one of the wild card berths, it not their first NL East title, this season. Adding those free agents to a quality corps that was already there, starting with Hanley Ramirez, but also featuring Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison and Giancarlo (I guess that's what we're calling him now) Stanton, could actually make the Marlins worth watching this season. Bringing in Buehrle, who's reunited with Ozzie Guillen, his manager with the White Sox, gives Miami's rotation some depth behind ace Josh Johnson. Johnson's a legitimate star, but he's been killed by not having any real help over the past couple seasons. Carlos Zambrano is crazy, but if Ozzie can keep him in check, he could be a quality third starter for this Marlins club. Anibal Sanchez is still there, too, and being a No. 4 starter instead of a No. 2 starter should make him a better pitcher. I don't even know who the Marlins closer was last season. That tells you how much Heath Bell has improved their bullpen. The Marlins actually spent some money this offseason. They're definitely a team to keep an eye one. Plus, they've got that pretty new ballpark, which isn't a gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls. And they've got Ozzie Guillen.
Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Emilio Bonifacio-CF, Hanley Ramirez-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Gaby Sanchez-1B, Logan Morrison-LF, John Buck-C, Omar Infante-2B
Rotation: Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco
Closer: Heath Bell
Projected Record: 91-71 (2nd Wild Card)
3. Atlanta Braves-The Braves can thank the dysfunctional Red Sox for the nation as a whole forgetting that they also had a pretty massive September collapse last season. If not for the Braves choking down the stretch, the Cardinals aren't the defending World Series Champions. Atlanta's problems last September stemmed mostly from Fredi Gonzalez overusing his bullpen studs Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel during the first five months of the season. Expect him to have learned from that mistake. The top three of the Braves' starting rotation--Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson--is among the best in the National League. Those three especially need to give Atlanta innings so that Fredi doesn't have to go to Venters adn Kimbrel every night. Brian McCann is probably the best offensive catcher in the game (sorry Buster), and Michael Bourn is one of the best center fielder/leadoff hitters out there. Dan Uggla rebounded from a horrible start to put up respectable numbers by year's end in 2011 (that hitting streak certainly helped), but he needs to be more consistent. I'm still a believer in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, too. If nothing else, they'll be the cornerstones of the Braves' lineup in the future. The Braves' future doesn't include future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. Chipper announced last week that he'll retire at the end of the season, then promptly got injured. Two years ago, the Braves sent Bobby Cox out with a playoff appearance. Chipper deserves a similar sendoff. If everything comes together the way it can, that's certainly possible.
Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Martin Prado-LF, Chipper Jones-3B, Brian McCann-C, Dan Uggla-2B, Jason Heyward-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Tyler Pastornicky-SS (Prado moves to third and Matt Diaz plays left while Chipper's out)
Rotation: Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Washington Nationals-They're still a year or two away, but the Washington Nationals are going to be a much improved ball club this season. They might even flirt with .500. Locking up their best player, Ryan Zimmerman, to a long-term deal was a smart move. Constructing a lineup around Zimmerman is a much better plan than building one around Jayson Werth. The signing of Adam LaRoche moves Michael Morse to left field. Morse wouldn't be good defensively in either place, but it's worth it to put his bat in left field and LaRoche's glove at first. It'll be a bouns if LaRoche can provide some offense, too. I really like the middle of that infield with Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. I don't know if you've heard of this Strasburg guy who pitches for the Nationals, but he's pretty good. And Strasburg's just one of six quality starters on the Nationals roster. They picked up Gio Gonzalez from Oakland and added themselves to the list of teams Edwin Jackson has played for. Jackson seems the most likely candidate to move to the bullpen (or trade at midseason), but this pitching depth is impressive. John Lannan, who's been the nominal "ace" of the staff for the last couple years, is probably penciled in as the No. 4 guy behind Jordan Zimmermann. And two-time 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang is the No. 5 starter. The official closer is Drew Storen, but they've also got Brad Lidge (who got the last out of the Phillies' World Series victory in 2008) and former Pirates closer Tom Gorzelanny in the bullpen, as well. Set-up guy Tyler Clippard was their All-Star last season, and he actually got the win in the All-Star Game despite allowing a single to the only batter he faced.
Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS, Danny Espinosa-2B, Ryan Zimmerman-3B, Michael Morse-LF, Jayson Werth-RF, Adam LaRoche-1B, Wilson Ramos-C, Roger Bernadina-CF
Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 82-80
5. New York Mets-In honor of their 50th anniversary, the 2012 Mets are going to attempt to match the 1962 Mets' Major League-record 120 losses. OK, it won't be that bad, but the poor Mets have very little hope of being good this season. I think everybody accepts that fact, including those involved with the Mets organization. It's not their fault. The circumstances have a lot to do with it. But the Mets know that 2012 won't be their year. Moving in the fences at Citi Field so that it's more National League park than national park should help David Wright and Jason Bay immensely. (Therein lies the problem with building a pitcher's park that takes away the strengths of your two best hitters.) If Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy can return healthy, they don't have a bad nucleus, but I'm hard pressed to name any other players on the Mets. They lost Jose Reyes as a free agent. Everybody knew that was going to happen. That's why I don't understand trading their most complete all-around player, Angel Pagan, to the Giants for Andres Torres. I'm also confused why they think Lucas Duda's good enough to be an everyday Major League right fielder (I love his name, though). Johan Santana claims he'll be ready to pitch on Opening Day. I'll believe it when I see it. They also need to move Mike Pelfrey back in the rotation if they expect to get any sort of numbers out of him. Pelfrey's not good enough to go against No. 1 and 2 starters every night. The rest of the rotation consists of Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee. Need I say more? Frank Francisco is evidently the closer. This team's not going to be good. However, Mets fans can look forward to all of the 50th anniversary events this season. And they can look forward to not seeing a speck of black on those uniforms.
Lineup: Andres Torres-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, David Wright-3B, Ike Davis-1B, Jason Bay-LF, Lucas Duda-RF, Josh Thole-C, Ruben Tejada-SS
Rotation: Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee
Closer: Frank Francisco
Projected Record: 76-86
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