Yesterday in Part I of my 2012 baseball preview, I took a look at the AL East. Today it's the AL Central, which is unlike the AL East in so many ways. The AL East features three teams that legitimately feel they have a shot at the division title. In the AL Central, the only questions are: "Who's going to finish second behind the Tigers?" and "How many games will Detroit win the division by?" There's no bigger division favorite entering the 2012 season than the Detroit Tigers, who will run away with the AL Central crown. For the Tigers, the first six months of the season will be a warmup for October. They've only got one thing on their mind, and it isn't winning the AL Central.
1. Detroit Tigers-When you've already got arguably the best team in the American League, then add one of the biggest free agents on the market, I'd say you had a pretty good winter. Victor Martinez gets hurt and is out for the year. No problem. The Tigers went out and got Prince Fielder to replace him, nevermind the fact they already had Miguel Cabrera playing first. Don't worry, Cabrera used to be a third baseman, so he pulled a Kevin Youkilis and moved across the diamond, giving the Tigers lineup a 3-4 that isn't even fair to whoever they're playing. And next year, you add Martinez to that and make it the best 3-4-5 in the game. What exactly are the flaws you can find with this team? Austin Jackson strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter? If that's all you can find, you know Jim Leyland's got a pretty good team. Carlos Guillen retired, but he's been hurt so much over the past three seasons that I think most people probably forgot he was on the Tigers anyway. They also let Magglio Ordonez go, which opens up right field for Brennan Boesch or Don Kelly or whoever they want to put out there. I haven't even yet mentioned that Detroit's best player isn't even one of their stud hitters. It's Justin Verlander, who became the first guy in 23 years to win both the Cy Young and MVP awards last season. But their rotation is more than just him, as the Yankees learned in the Division Series last season. And with a fireballer like Jose Valverde closing games, that rotation's not going to have to worry about many blown saves. Last season, the Tigers lost the ALCS to Texas. That won't be acceptable this season. They expect to be playing deep into October this year, and for years to come.
Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ryan Raburn-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Prince Fielder-1B, Delmon Young-LF, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Brennan Boesch-RF, Alex Avila-C, Brandon Inge-3B
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Andrew Oliver
Closer: Jose Valverde
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Cleveland Indians-The pressing question in the AL Central is who's going to finish second behind the Tigers. I'm giving the slight nod to Cleveland, mainly because I think the Indians actually have the talent to be competitive if they can ever get everybody healthy at the same time. Mainly, they have to make sure at least three of these four guys are in the lineup at the same time: Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner. Want to know how important Shin-Soo Choo is to the Indians? He's the only right fielder listed on the preseason depth chart. Oft-injured Grady Sizemore and left fielder Michael Brantley are also important, but I think the Indians would be better equipped to get around losing one of them than any of those other four. They've brought in Casey Kotchmann, who had a good year with Tampa Bay last year, to play first base. It'll be interesting to see how he does getting the chance to be in the lineup (mostly) every day. The situation involving Fausto Carmona (or whatever his name is) could easily be a distraction that the Indians can ill afford. But outside of "Carmona," the Cleveland rotation is still pretty solid. They've got Justin Masterson, and Ubaldo Jimenez should be more comfortable after getting a chance to get used to the American League over the offseason. Cleveland has also added Derek Lowe to serve as the fifth starter and provide a veteran presence in the locker room. If all goes well and the Indians can avoid serious injuries, Cleveland could contend for a wild card.
Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Carlos Santana-C, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Travis Hafner-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, Casey Kotchmann-1B, Jason Kipnis-2B, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Rotation: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, "Fausto Carmona", Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe
Closer: Chris Perez
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Minnesota Twins-Injuries have also derailed a very talented team in Minnesota. Last season, everything hit rock bottom for the Twins, who actually somehow managed to finish last in this division. Fortunately, Joe Mauer appears to be healthy. That's good, seeing as he's the franchise. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Justin Morneau. Morneau will be in the Opening Day lineup, but he hasn't been the same since he suffered a concussion in Toronto in July 2010, and I'm not sure he ever will be. But this Twins team has talent virtually everywhere. Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla are solid on the left side of the infield, and centerfielder Denard Span is one of the most exciting players in baseball. However, they've lost both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Bringing in for A Josh Willingham to replace Cuddyer in right was smart. They're comparable players, so the impact of that loss will be minimal. The Twins don't have that much depth, though, so injuries are something that they really need to avoid. Jason Marquis joins a decent rotation that's anchored by Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Everything hit the fan before the season even started last year when Joe Nathan was lost for the season during Spring Training and they basically had to make things up in the bullpen as they went along. Nathan's gone now, and the closer job has been handed to Matt Capps. Pitching will be Minnesota's Achilles heel.
Lineup: Denard Span-CF, Jamey Carroll-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Josh Willingham-RF, Ryan Doumit-DH, Danny Valencia-3B, Ben Revere-LF, Alexi Casilla-SS
Rotation: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn
Closer: Matt Capps
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Kansas City Royals-"Is this the year?" After years of ineptitude and the resulting high draft picks, Royals fans have been patiently waiting for the breakthrough season when all these guys finally get to the majors. They should all be there by the end of the season, so that breakout might come in 2013. There's an outside chance they could challenge for second place in this weak division, but losing Joakim Soria for the year is going to hurt immensely. I'm curious to see how this season's going to turn out in Kansas City. If nothing else, I think the Royals are going to be fun to watch. Eric Hosmer is a beast, Billy Butler is one of the most underrated pure hitters in the game, and Alex Gordon seems to have finally figured out what it takes to be an everyday Major Leaguer. Bruce Chen is a solid No. 1 starter, and Luke Hochevar isn't bad. I like the addition of Jonathan Sanchez. He was expendable for the pitching-heavy Giants, and he won't have to worry about getting pulled from the rotation after one bad start anymore. However, he's never pitched in the American League before, and Sanchez is now a No. 3 instead of a No. 5. That means he'll have less margin for error going up against better pitchers. But if he can pitch well enough to keep the Royals in games (meaning he keeps his ERA right around 4.00), Sanchez could end up .500. If he does that, the Royals could reasonably think they got a steal. With Soria out, closer duties fall to former Dodger Jonathan Broxton. But the middle relief isn't that good, so they need the starters to go deep enough into games to give Broxton leads to save.
Lineup: Alex Gordon-LF, Yuniesky Betancourt-2B, Billy Butler-DH, Eric Hosmer-1B, Mike Moustakas-3B, Jeff Francoeur-RF, Brayan Pena-C, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Alcides Escobar-SS
Rotation: Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, Luis Mendoza
Closer: Jonathan Broxton
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Chicago White Sox-Robin Ventura's got a big task on his hands in his rookie season as White Sox manager. It's going to be a long year on the South Side. There best player used to be Mark Buehrle. He went with Ozzie Guillen to Miami. Now the rotation is anchored by Jake Peavy, who was dominant when he was in San Diego, but has never gotten the knack of pitching in the American League. If the Peavy of old suddenly emerges, the White Sox might be OK, but I don't think that's going to happen. In that case, John Danks and Gavin Floyd will really have to pick up the slack. Matt Thornton was an All-Star as a setup guy a few years ago, but now he's the closer. If he struggles, Jesse Crain can step in. One word describes the White Sox lineup: OLD! A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko were both in their prime when the White Sox won the World Series. That was seven years ago. Alex Rios must've forgotten to bring his game through customs when he went from the Blue Jays to the White Sox at midseason a couple years ago. And do I really need to talk about Adam Dunn? The guy was a DH stuck in the National League for so long, finally gets a chance to play in the American League, and has the lowest qualifying batting average in baseball while striking out basically every other at-bat. I think it should be illegal to include the word "hitter" in the position of a guy who contributed 42 RBIs and a whopping .277 slugging percentage (not batting average, slugging percentage) last season. Part of the blame for that falls on Ozzie Guillen for keeping him in the lineup all season, but I think we can all agree Adam Dunn needs to actually contribute something to the White Sox other than strikeouts.
Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Paul Konerko-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Alex Rios-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Kosuke Fukudome-RF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Brent Morel-3B
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Gavin Flod, John Danks, Chris Sale, Phil Humber
Closer: Matt Thornton
Projected Record: 75-87
So, what do you get when you have a really good team playing in a really good division? The Detroit Tigers running away with the AL Central in 2012 the same way the Texas Rangers ran away with the AL West in 2010. That Rangers team went to the World Series. The Tigers don't just want to go to the World Series. They plan on winning it. And they have the talent to do it.
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