I've had a day to mull over the bracket, and there are still a couple things that I can't figure out. Mainly, I'm shocked that Iona got in. Pleasantly surprised, but still shocked. I'm also confused about the committee's contention that Iona wasn't the last team in. If they were the last at-large team on the S-curve, how can you say they weren't the last team in? The fact that Washington wasn't even on the board floors me too. The Huskies were the regular season champ in the Pac-12. I thought that would be enough, but evidently they didn't even come close. They're the first regular season champion from a BCS league EVER to not get an at-large bid.
As for the teams that are actually in the field, I think this year's Tournament is very top-heavy. Kentucky and Syracuse were the consensus top two teams, but there was discussion for the other two 1-seeds, which went (correctly) to North Carolina and Michigan State. The 2-seeds went (correctly) to Kansas, Duke, Ohio State and Missouri. Those are clearly the eight best teams in the country. Other than the slight debate over who deserved that last 1-seed, this might've been the easiest year to figure out the 1 and 2 lines in recent memory.
But each of those teams has its flaws, and as much as it wouldn't surprise me to see any of them in the Final Four, it wouldn't surprise me to see some of them lose early, too. Before I break down the bracket region-by-region, I'm going to make one bold prediction: Butler won't lose the National Championship Game this year. With that pearl of wisdom, on to the breakdown...
SOUTH: Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed and clearly the best team in the nation entering the Tournament. Unfortunately, being the No. 1 overall seed doesn't get you the easiest road to New Orleans. Three of last year's Final Four teams are in this region. In fact, at least two of them will be gone by the Sweet 16. VCU is a candidate for the 5-12 upset over Wichita State, but I don't see them beating Indiana. Kentucky beats UConn, then gets a rematch with Indiana and a chance to avenge one of their two losses. The bottom half of this bracket is very interesting, though. UNLV will beat Colorado and could easily beat Baylor, and they both could beat Duke. That Notre Dame-Xavier matchup might be the best of the first round (yes, I know it's technically the "second" round now, but I choose to still call it the "first" round). Anyway, whoever wins gives Duke trouble. I think the Blue Devils survive that, but fall to Baylor. And Kentucky knocks off Baylor to get back to the Final Four.
WEST: Michigan State's the only 1-seed that actually won its conference tournament, and that victory over Ohio State in the B1G (how stupid is the new Big Ten logo, by the way?) title game probably clinched the 1-seed for the Spartans. However, as No. 4 overall, Sparty gets shipped to Phoenix. That might not be a bad thing, though. Every time UConn wins the National Championship, they come out of the West Region. The top seeds should have an easy time getting through this bracket. Long Beach State might give New Mexico a game and Colorado State has a chance to upset Murray State, but I don't see any real shockers coming out of the West. With the way Louisville played in winning the Big East Tournament, Michigan State would probably prefer it if the Cardinals lose to either Davidson or the New Mexico-Long Beach State winner, but don't count on that happening. That's a yummy Sweet 16 game. But it certainly seems like Missouri and Michigan State are on a collision course. The Tigers are out to prove something after being denied a 1-seed, but Michigan State's always in the Final Four. I don't see that changing this year.
EAST: Forgive me for not jumping on the Syracuse bandwagon. For some reason, I think the Orange are primed for an upset. This region is somewhat "easy," but I just don't see them getting past the Sweet 16. So who does Syracuse lose to, you ask? I'm gonna say Vanderbilt. The Commodores are full of confidence after beating Kentucky to win their first SEC title in 60 years, and I think that momentum carries over into the NCAA Tournament. Poor Harvard. They're in the Tournament for the first time since 1946 and got the 12-seed they deserved, then got matched with probably the best 5-seed. Anyway, my point here is that I really like Vandy. The team that I really like in the bottom half of the East Region is ACC champion Florida State. The Seminoles really proved something to me when they beat both Duke and North Carolina to win their first ACC title. They completely laid an egg against VCU last year, and they'll be out to atone for that game, as well. A lot of people are probably picking Syracuse-Ohio State as the regional final. But I think both of those teams are too flawed to end up in New Orleans. In fact, I don't think either one even reaches the regional final. I really like the way both Vanderbilt and Florida State are playing right now. In my "upset" region, Florida State beats Vanderbilt in the regional final.
MIDWEST: Things get interesting in the Midwest. If the seeds hold, we've got a dandy of a regional final between North Carolina and Kansas. And you can bet the Tar Heels probably aren't too happy about the prospect of playing the Jayhawks in St. Louis. Kansas wanted a 1-seed (as was made perfectly clear by Bill Self's reaction during the selection show), but I think they'll take a 2-seed and playing in St. Louis over getting shipped to Phoenix. But before they both get there, plenty of obstacles await. Creighton will give North Carolina fits in the second round. That could be this year's Butler-Pitt game. The under-seeded Blue Jays won't win, but they'll definitely keep it close. Whoever wins that Cal-USF game could definitely knock off Temple, and I'm not completely sold on Michigan. Georgetown probably beats a very good San Diego State team, and Kansas is probably hoping Purdue beats Saint Mary's. That's a much better matchup for them. Just like Michigan State-Missouri seems inevitable, I expect us to see North Carolina and Kansas meet with a spot in the Final Four at stake. And that "home court" advantage will be a big factor in a Jayhawks victory.
Final Four/National Championship: So...that gives us a Final Four of Kentucky, Michigan State, Florida State and Kansas. As good as Michigan State is, Kentucky's that much better. John Calipari's one-and-done teams only get one shot at a title each. With the amount of upsets that we get in this tournament every year, it's actually not that common for the No. 1 overall seed to play on Monday night. But I think that loss to Vanderbilt was a good thing for Kentucky. They're not going to take the NCAA Tournament for granted and play in the game that their talent indicates they should be in. As for the other semifinal, Kansas is a better team than Florida State. I think the Seminoles are good. That's why I've got them advancing to the Final Four, but I think Kansas is really good. The Jayhawks were the best team two years ago, when they lost to Northern Iowa in the second round. They were the best team last year, when they lost to VCU in the Elite Eight. This year they're not the best team. But this is also the year when they'll reach the Promised Land. And in the UK vs. KU showdown for the title, it's Calipari's boys from Lexington that end up on top.
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