Monday, January 29, 2024

USA Basketball In Paris

Earlier this week, USA Basketball announced the player pools for the Paris Olympics.  The men's and women's Olympic teams won't necessarily be pulled from these groups of players.  Names can be added or dropped between now and the Olympic roster deadline.  But, it's safe to say that the bulk of the Olympic rosters will come from these preliminary lists.

The men's preliminary pool is a veritable Who's Who of NBA All-Stars with varying degrees of Olympic experience.  LeBron is a veteran of three Olympics, although he's skipped the last two.  Kevin Durant is also a three-time Olympian, having won gold in London, Rio and Tokyo.  Other gold medalists among the 41 names include Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Chris Paul, Paul George, Anthony Davis and Devin Booker.

Steph Curry, meanwhile, has never played in the Olympics.  You'd think his participation in Paris is entirely up to him.  If he wants to play and finally get the chance to be an Olympian, he's on the team.  Same with Joel Embiid, who had his choice of three different countries to play for (United States, France, Cameroon), but ended up decided to play for the U.S. (despite quite the push by the home team).

Embiid deciding to play for the U.S. was a huge win for a team that will desperately need his size.  That was their biggest weakness at the World Cup last year, where the undersized, guard-heavy squad was exploited inside in its semifinal and bronze medal losses to Germany and Canada.  That fourth-place showing was leaps and bounds better than its finish at the 2019 World Cup, but they know the teams they'll see in Paris will be much better.  Fortunately, so will the American team.

It's no secret that USA Basketball places more of an emphasis on the Olympics than the World Cup.  This is especially true now that the World Cup and Olympics are in back-to-back offseasons.  They obviously want to win the World Cup, but the main goal is finishing high enough to directly qualify for the Olympics and avoid the last-chance tournament.  Then, an entirely new roster consisting almost entirely of NBA superstars will go for gold at the Olympics.

We're finally back to a normal schedule, too, which, you would think, would result in more players making themselves available for the Olympics this year.  I can't blame them for passing on Tokyo when the 2020 bubble season didn't end until October, then the 2020-21 season started on Christmas and ran literally right until the Olympics started.  Devin Booker's one of the few guys whose team went on a deep playoff run who did commit to the Olympic team, and he immediately got on a plane right after the last game of the NBA Finals, arriving in Tokyo the night before the first game.

This time, the NBA season will end in mid-June, more than a month before the Olympics start in late July.  There will even be time to have a training camp and exhibition games before the team leaves for Paris.  That and the fact they all know gold is by no means a guarantee, so they have to send the absolute best team possible.  It's not the 2008 "Redeem Team," but it figures to be the deepest and best Olympic men's team USA Basketball has had since then.

So good, in fact, that there will be some marquee names left off the roster.  It can't just be the 12 most talented guys.  It has to be 12 players who complement each other and fill the roles that are needed.  Somebody has to be OK with being the last guy off the bench.  And it can't be 12 shooting guards/small forwards.  You need to have at least three (preferably four) big men to rotate in and out, as well as at least two point guards.

There will be obvious considerations such as injuries and/or deep playoff runs, but I'm building my 12-man mock roster based only on who I'd choose without any restrictions.  I went with three point guards, three bigs and six wings.  This is the team I'd take to Paris:

Point Guards: Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard
Shooting Guards/Small Forwards: Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard
Power Forwards/Centers: Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum

On the women's side, I can see Caitlin Clark, who'll soon be a WNBA rookie playing for Indiana making the Olympic team, if for no other reason than to give her the experience before she becomes one of the team's mainstays for the next decade and a half.  Speaking of mainstays, Diana Taurasi, who said the Tokyo Olympics would be her last, is on the 18-player preliminary roster.  If she does go to Paris, the 41-year-old five-time gold medalist would become the oldest Olympic basketball player in history.

Taurasi's Phoenix Mercury teammate Brittany Griner, meanwhile, is back in the National Team pool.  After her ordeal in Russia, she said that the only reason she'll ever leave the country again would be to play in the Olympics.  Even after that forced year off, she's still one of the top post players in the WNBA, so there's no reason to think she won't be selected.

That's the thing about the U.S. women's team.  One of the reasons they've been so good for so long isn't just because they have the best players.  It's because the roster is remarkably consistent.  These women play together at international tournaments year after year.  Not only does it lead to a dynamic where they know each other extremely well, it results in there actually being very little turnover.  Injury, retirement or someone else being better and taking your spot are really the only reasons.  Which still happens plenty!

As it does every four (or five...or three) years, the WNBA will take a midseason Olympic break.  The All*Star Game is the final game before everyone leaves for Paris, and it wouldn't surprise me if most, if not all, of the Olympians are on the All*Star rosters.  In the past, they've even changed the format in Olympic years to have the Olympic team take on the remaining WNBA All*Stars, so it wouldn't surprise me if they do that again.

Either way, the United States will be heavily favored to win its eighth consecutive Olympic gold medal in women's basketball, which would be the record for any team sport.  I do think Caitlin Clark will be on the team, while the rest of the roster will be heavy on Olympic experience.  I've got seven Olympic veterans including Kelsey Plum, who was on the gold-medal-winning 3x3 team in Tokyo.  Plum plays the 5-on-5 version in Paris along with:

Guards: Caitlin Clark, Chelsea Gray, Sabrina Ionescu, Jewell Loyd, Arike Ogunbowale, Kelsey Plum, Diana Taurasi
Forwards/Centers: Aliyah Boston, Brittany Griner, Breana Stewart, Alyssa Thomas, A'ja Wilson

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