2023 NFL Picks, Week 18

We've reached the end of another NFL season, and I love how chaotic the playoff picture looks!  So many things can happen depending on the results of different games!  The Bills can be the 2-seed, the 6-seed, the 7-seed or out of the playoffs entirely!  The NFC South can potentially end up in a three-way tie!  And it won't be totally settled until the end of the Sunday night game.  Which is exactly how the NFL likes it!

Meanwhile, more teams than usual have their positions locked up and will be sitting starters.  Both No. 1 seeds are already clinched, so it'll be backups galore for the 49ers and Ravens.  Same thing for the Chiefs and Lions, who'll be the No. 3 seeds, and the Browns, who came out of nowhere to earn the AFC's No. 5 seed (and a visit to the AFC South champion next week).  Don't worry.  There's still plenty at stake, too.

Steelers (9-7) at Ravens (13-3): Baltimore-After the last two weeks, I don't think there's much doubt about who's the best team in the NFL.  What the Ravens did against Miami was a message to the entire league and all but locked up the MVP for Lamar Jackson.  He won't play against a Steelers team that, incredibly, still has a (realistic) chance to get in.  Also, how about Mike Tomlin?  He's been the Steelers' coach for 17 years and never had a losing record.  The winning record was locked up last week.  The playoff spot, unfortunately, will not be this week.

Texans (9-7) at Colts (9-7): Indianapolis-Believe it or not, this will be the Texans' first non-1:00 game of the season.  Not just their first primetime game.  Their first game that isn't a 1:00 kickoff.  All 16 of their games this season have been in the early Sunday window.  That's just nuts!  Anyway, their Saturday night tilt in Indianapolis is for a playoff berth, and the winner can also take the division if the Jaguars lose in Tennessee.  Look for that team to be the equally-unexpected Colts.  When these two met in the final game last season, they had six combined wins (and a tie against each other).  One year later, there's a playoff berth at stake.  That's the NFL for you.

Buccaneers (8-8) at Panthers (2-14): Tampa Bay-Tampa Bay had its chance to wrap up the NFC South with one game to go last week and completely blew its shot!  The Bucs simply got outplayed by New Orleans.  Fortunately, they've got one more chance against a Carolina team that has already wrapped up the worst record in the NFL.  And, to add insult to injury, their owner was fined for his behavior last week in Jacksonville.  Tampa Bay couldn't ask for a better opponent in a must-win game.

Browns (11-5) at Bengals (8-8): Cleveland-I honestly don't know what to make of this game.  The Browns are locked into the 5-seed, so they're sitting a number of starters.  Meanwhile, the Bengals have already been eliminated, so how many of their key guys will sit?  Cincinnati obviously wants to finish above .500, while Cleveland wants to make a statement heading into the playoffs.  The Browns defense will make that statement and lock up Kevin Stefanski's Coach of the Year award.

Vikings (7-9) at Lions (11-5): Detroit-When these two met on Christmas Eve in Minnesota, the Vikings still mathematically had a chance at catching the Lions for the division title.  Oh, how times have changed!  A team that once looked like a lock for a wild card at 7-6 is instead all but eliminated heading into Week 18 after losing three straight, two of which were must-win games...at home.  They looked completely disinterested last week, too.  So, why would we expect them to care this week?

Jets (6-10) at Patriots (4-12): New England-Will this be the final game of Bill Belichick's tenure in New England?  That's probably the biggest question heading into their season finale against the Jets.  And, if it is Belichick's last game, the Jets are a fitting opponent.  Because they've absolutely dominated the Jets, winning 15 straight games in the series, the longest active streak against one opponent in the NFL.  That includes a Week 3 game where the Patriots won on a kickoff return at the last second.  The Jets literally CANNOT beat them!

Falcons (7-9) at Saints (8-8): New Orleans-Atlanta is one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL.  The Falcons should've won the NFC South going away, but have some bad losses, which have put them in a position of needing some help from the Panthers to take the division via the three-way tiebreaker.  Except they got their butts kicked in Chicago last week, while the Saints played like a team that actually wants to win the division.  Which is why I think New Orleans will end up being the team rooting for the Carolina win.

Jaguars (9-7) at Titans (5-11): Jacksonville-If you'd told me at midseason, when the Jaguars were 6-2, that Jacksonville would need a Week 18 road win not just to win the division, but to make the playoffs, I wouldn't have believed you.  But here we are and that's the situation at hand.  And they may or may not have Trevor Lawrence available.  Whether he plays or not, it really shouldn't matter.  The Jacksonville defense should do the job, they'll win the division, and they'll host Cleveland next week.

Seahawks (8-8) at Cardinals (4-12): Seattle-Arizona has four wins this season.  Two of them are over Dallas and Philadelphia.  The Seahawks also have a win over the Eagles, but put themselves in a bind with a home loss to Pittsburgh last week.  Now they need a win and a Packers loss to clinch the 7-seed and a visit to the NFC East champion.  They know what they're up against and won't take the Cardinals lightly.  Unfortunately, they can't control the other part, so they might end up out even with the win.

Bears (7-9) at Packers (8-8): Green Bay-It's win and in for the Packers, a remarkable turnaround for a team that was 2-5 at midseason.  And they sure looked like a playoff team on New Year's Eve!  That was an incredible performance where they completely dominated a Vikings team that was also playing for its playoff life, although you never would've known it.  The Packers deserve to be in the playoffs, and they'll get their by beating their rivals, who've had quite a second-half turnaround themselves.  And, they've already locked up the No. 1 pick thanks to Carolina.

Broncos (8-8) at Raiders (7-9): Denver-Even though they were eliminated from playoff contention last week, this is a big game for the Broncos.  To finish above .500 for the first time in seven years, especially after starting 1-5, would be incredibly encouraging and show that Sean Payton's definitely got this team headed in the right direction.  So are the Raiders, who would be smart to drop the "interim" tag from Head Coach Antonio Pierce's title as early as Monday.  

Chiefs (10-6) at Chargers (5-11): Chargers-Kansas City is in a very unusual position.  An irrelevant Week 18 game, and not because they already have the 1-seed locked up.  Instead, they're gearing up for a Wild Card Game next week.  In the past, we've seen the resting playoff team lose in situations like this, so don't be surprised if it happens here.  The Chiefs already lost to both the Broncos and Raiders.  Will the Chargers make it all three division rivals?

Eagles (11-5) at Giants (5-11): Philadelphia-Incredibly, the Eagles have gone 1-4 since starting 10-1 and, after an inexplicable home loss to the Cardinals, are looking at hitting the road in the playoffs.  The only way they can avoid that is beating the Giants and having Dallas lose to Washington.  The first part shouldn't be much of an issue.  They're 4-0 against Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll.  Although, the game on Christmas was much closer than many expected, and the Giants easily could've beaten the Rams last week, too.  This won't be an easy one for Philadelphia.

Rams (9-7) at 49ers (12-4): Rams-For a while, it looked like the Rams might be in a really hairy situation this week.  Everything broke their way last week, though, so they head to San Francisco with a wild card already locked up.  Even better, the 49ers don't need to win, either.  So, what we've got is two playoff teams who'll be doing their best to not give away too much while also keeping everybody healthy.  More 49ers are sitting and the Rams are tuning up for next week.  That's the only reason I'm taking LA.

Cowboys (11-5) at Commanders (4-12): Dallas-Say what you will about how the game ended, the Cowboys got the win they needed on Saturday night, then were gifted an Eagles loss.  Suddenly, the NFC East title and 2-seed are theirs for the taking.  All they need to do is beat Washington, and they'll both get two guaranteed playoff home games (assuming they win the first) and, just as importantly, avoid San Francisco until the NFC Championship Game.  One road win to avoid going on the road.

Bills (10-6) at Dolphins (11-5): Miami-Game 272 has everything you're looking for in a grand finale for the season.  It's winner-take-all for the AFC East, and Buffalo could end up out of the playoffs entirely with a loss.  It's even possible that they'll do this all again next week!  The Bills are certainly playing better football right now, and, outside of the Cowboys, the Dolphins are yet to beat a team that's actually good this season.  And we all know what happened last week in Baltimore!  Miami is a team that needs to be at home in the playoffs almost more than anybody (except for maybe Dallas).  Call me crazy, but I think they get the win and the 2-seed (only to see the Bills win the rematch next week).

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 161-95