2023 NFL Picks, Wild Card

It's been quite a busy week in the NFL...and that was just the coaching changes!  The most I've heard anyone talk about the playoffs was the outrage directed at the NFL and NBC for the Dolphins-Chiefs game only being available on Peacock...because they paid $110 million for it!  I'm very curious to see if this becomes a regular thing, or if the backlash will result in them thinking twice about making a playoff game exclusive to streaming again moving forward.

As for the games themselves, there are plenty of storylines, particularly with reunions.  Tyreek Hill returns to Miami, Mike McCarthy takes on his old team, and the quarterbacks who were traded for each other--Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff--face off in the Lions' first home playoff game in 30 years.  It'll be 10 degrees in Kansas City and a blizzard in Buffalo.  And the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers, who were both supposed to have a "down" year this season each ended up in the playoffs anyway!  So, basically, it was business as usual in Pittsburgh and Green Bay.

Browns (11-6) at Texans (10-7): Cleveland-There was a chance that we'd get all four teams that have never reached the Super Bowl all make the playoffs in the same season for the first time.  The Jaguars decided to piss away their spot, though, so instead it's three out of four, including both of these teams.  And very few, if any, people thought we'd see either one in the playoffs.  Well, not only are they both here, one's guaranteed to win a playoff game.

The Browns are making just their third playoff appearance since reentering the league in 1999, and it's even more remarkable when you consider their current starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, wasn't even playing football in November.  Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, proved he was up for the moment last week in their win-and-in victory over Indianapolis.  Playing at home certainly works to his advantage, but it also frees up Myles Garrett and the rest of that outstanding Cleveland defense.  That defense is what I think will make the difference, as the Browns grab the road win.

Dolphins (11-6) at Chiefs (11-6): Kansas City-After crushing Washington in Week 13, the Dolphins had a three-game lead in the AFC East with five to play.  They proceeded to lose three of their last five, including last week in the division championship game against Buffalo.  So, instead of going into the playoffs as the AFC East champions, they enter as a wild card team.  And, frankly, no team (except for maybe Dallas) needed to win their division more than the Dolphins.  Because instead of playing two games at home in Miami, they have to go on the road to frigid Kansas City.

This hasn't been a typical Chiefs season by any stretch of the imagination.  However, despite their struggles, they still won the AFC West for the ninth straight year.  Let's not forget, too, that they're the defending champs.  Their offense hasn't played to its usual form, but their defense has been outstanding.  That defense will be a key against a Dolphins team that only beat one team with a winning record all season (Dallas).  Combine that with the weather and this may not be pretty.

Steelers (10-7) at Bills (11-6): Buffalo-Entering December, the Bills were 6-6 and the No. 10 seed in the AFC.  They ended up as the No. 2 and are the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs.  If they'd ended up as a wild card, they would've been that team nobody wanted to face.  They're still that team, but now they're guaranteed at least two games at home, which makes them even more dangerous.  THIS is the team that was a popular preseason Super Bowl pick.

Pittsburgh was also the No. 10 seed in the AFC at one point this season.  For them, it was even later.  Week 15.  The Steelers finished the season with three straight wins, including two on the road, to snag the final wild card spot.  To say they're a surprise playoff team would be an understatement.  Because their offense was anemic most of the season.  Yet their defense has stepped up.  Last week, they played a disgusting game in the rain in Balitmore and won.  Now they're looking at a snowstorm.  One of the hottest teams in the NFL is going home.  That'll be Pittsburgh.  The Bills advance.

Packers (9-8) at Cowboys (12-5): Dallas-While San Francisco is a pretty clear favorite in the NFC, do not count out the Dallas Cowboys.  Especially since they'll get to play two games at Jerry's World and avoid the 49ers (who've knocked them out of the playoffs in each of the last two years) until the NFC Championship Game.  That was just as important, and why getting the 2-seed as opposed to the 5 made such a difference.  Now they have a chance to really make a statement against a Packers team that went from 2-5 in October to the playoffs in January.

Green Bay was 6-8 and trailed three teams for the last wild card spot with three games left.  The Packers finished with three wins and had the tiebreaker over both the Saints and Seahawks, putting them back in the playoffs in Jordan Love's first season as the starting quarterback.  This year's playoff appearance will obviously give them a ton of confidence heading into next season.  As for their chances against Dallas, I don't want to say they're nonexistent.  These are the Cowboys we're talking about here, and they've found some weird ways to lose playoff games in recent years.  But Dallas is also a better team than Green Bay.

Rams (10-7) at Lions (12-5): Detroit-Ford Field hosts a playoff game for just the second time, and the first involving the home team!  The Lions are one of the feel-good stories of the NFL this season.  Can they keep it going by earning their first playoff win since the 1991 season?  They're taking on a Rams team that followed up winning Super Bowl LVI by going 5-12 last season.  It looked like this season might be a repeat after they started 3-6, but, like the Rams and Steelers, they played their best football down the stretch, going 7-3 in the second half to earn the second wild card.

I think this might end up being the most entertaining game of Wild Card Weekend.  It certainly feels like it'll be the closest.  The focus is obviously on Stafford and Goff, who'll forever be linked because of that trade, but it's their All-Pro receivers, Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who'll be the difference.  One of them seems poised to shine in his first career playoff game.  The one who does will likely be the one who leads his team to victory.  Look for that to be St. Brown.  Detroit's waited 30 years for this opportunity.  They won't blow it.

Eagles (11-6) at Buccaneers (9-8): Tampa Bay-Let's once again go back to the beginning of December.  The Eagles were 10-1 and had a two-game cushion for the 1-seed in the NFC.  Then they played the 49ers and it was all downhill from there.  They ended the season 1-5 and slipped to the 5-seed.  For most of the season, I thought whoever ended up with the 5 between Philadelphia and Dallas didn't really matter since they'll likely roll the NFC South champion, but now I'm not so sure.  Because the Eagles are not the same team they were earlier in the season.  Not by a long shot.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, deserves a ton of credit.  Nobody was sure what to make of the Bucs in their first season post-Brady.  What they got was a team that won its third straight division title and finished with a better record than last season.  After losing at home to New Orleans with a chance to clinch the division in Week 17, they went into Carolina last week and took care of business, shutting out the Panthers 9-0.  Against the Eagles, they'll actually need to score.  But if their defense can do what the Cardinals and Giants did to the Eagles, I can see Tampa pulling the upset.  If nothing else, this should be a better game than their Monday night wild card experience a year ago, when the Cowboys absolutely took it to them.

Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 168-104