At Least One First-Ballot Lock

Last year at this time, I was left wondering who, if anybody, would be voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  Fred McGriff had already been elected by the Eras Committee, but I genuinely thought the writers might pitch a shutout.  That turned out not to be the case, and Scott Rolen received the call to join McGriff in Cooperstown last summer.

This year, I have no such concern.  Jim Leyland will definitely have company.  That's because there's a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer who becomes eligible this year--Adrian Beltre.  Joe Mauer's also in his first year of eligibility, so it's entirely possible we'll have two first-timers elected.  And they might not be the only two, either.  Will Todd Helton and/or Billy Wagner finally get enough support?

As for my "ballot," eight of the 10 players I "voted" for last year return to the ballot.  Rolen got inducted and Jeff Kent fell off after 10 years.  So, that means I've got two spots available.  It should be pretty obvious who's getting them.  But do I add somebody else and drop someone I had down in 2023?

1. Adrian Beltre, Third Baseman (1998-2004 Dodgers, 2005-09 Mariners, 2010 Red Sox, 2011-18 Rangers): Adrian Beltre will cruise past the required 75 percent...and rightfully so!  He was the first third baseman with both 3,000 hits and 400 home runs, and he hit 100 homers for three different teams (Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers).  He also played Gold Glove defense.  Beltre had monster seasons in his contract years with the Dodgers and Red Sox, but he'll be wearing a Rangers hat on his plaque.  All of his career milestones were achieved in Texas, and the Rangers retired his number in 2019 (the year after he retired).

2. Joe Mauer, Catcher (2004-18 Twins): No offense to Johnny Bench or Mike Piazza, but Joe Mauer was the greatest-hitting catcher in history.  A Minnesota boy, he was drafted No. 1 overall by the hometown Twins in 2001 and played his entire 15-year career with the team.  Mauer is the only American League catcher ever to win a batting title.  He won three of them.  He also won three Gold Gloves and was the AL MVP in 2009.  Mauer hit .365 that season, the highest average ever for a catcher.  He spent the last five years of his career playing first base and DH, but his 10 years as a full-time catcher were extraordinary!

3. Andy Pettitte, Pitcher (1995-2003 Yankees, 2004-06 Astros, 2007-10 Yankees, 2012-13 Yankees): I've made my peace with the fact that it's highly unlikely Andy Pettitte will get voted into the Hall of Fame by the writers.  That's not gonna stop me from putting his down every year until he falls off the ballot!  Pettitte was a key member of five Yankees World Series championship teams, and he's the all-time MLB leader with 19 postseason wins.  He won more games in the 2000s than any other pitcher and is the Yankees' all-time strikeouts leader, but the postseason success is enough for me.

4. Carlos Beltran, Outfielder (1998-2004 Royals, 2004 Astros, 2005-11 Mets, 2011 Giants, 2012-13 Cardinals, 2014-16 Yankees, 2016 Rangers, 2017 Astros): Beltran got a little under 50 percent of the vote last year, his first on the ballot.  That's a little lower than I expected, but still bodes well for him to eventually get in.  Beltran was an outstanding postseason performer throughout his career (although, he was the only player publicly named in the Astros' 2017 sign-stealing scandal).  A nine-time All*Star and three-time Gold Glove winner, he hit 400 home runs and stole 300 bases.

5. Andruw Jones, Outfielder (1996-2007 Braves, 2008 Dodgers, 2009 Rangers, 2010 White Sox, 2011-12 Yankees): With all due respect to Ken Griffey, Jr., Andruw Jones was the greatest center fielder of the late 90s and early 2000s, winning 10 consecutive Gold Gloves from 1998-2007.  He was a pretty damn good hitter too!  He led the National League in both homers and RBIs in 2005, and he finished with 434 and 1289 for his career.  And, to think, he was only the second-best Jones on those Braves teams!

6. Todd Helton, First Baseman (1997-2013 Rockies): There's a very good chance that Peyton Manning's college backup and roommate will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame this year.  Helton's the leading vote-getter among those returning to the ballot, and he came damn close in 2023 with 72.2 percent of the vote.  So, I think Larry Walker won't be the only one wearing a Colorado Rockies hat on his plaque pretty soon.  Helton's certainly deserving.  A career .316 hitter who could also be counted on for 30 homers and around 100 RBIs while also playing a Gold Glove first base year-in and year-out.

7. Billy Wagner, Pitcher (1995-2003 Astros, 2004-05 Phillies, 2006-09 Mets, 2009 Red Sox, 2010 Braves): Will Billy Wagner get enough of a bump to go from 68.1 percent in 2023 to the necessary 75 percent in 2024?  He's been trending upward since his debut on the ballot in 2016, and it sure looks likley he'll get in either this year or next.  Wagner's one of eight closers all-time with 400 saves.  Three of the other seven are in the Hall of Fame and two are active.  He had longevity as a closer, too.  Wagner finished among the top 10 NL saves leaders 10 different times.

8. Gary Sheffield, Outfielder (1988-91 Brewers, 1992-93 Padres, 1993-98 Marlins, 1998-2001 Dodgers, 2002-03 Braves, 2004-06 Yankees, 2007-08 Tigers, 2009 Mets): Gary Sheffield played for so many teams for such short stints that, if he ever does eventually get in, it'll be interesting to see which team they put on his hat.  (I actually think it would be the Marlins, where he won his only World Series ring.)  Anyway, the reason Sheffield was on so many teams was because they all wanted him.  And he produced for all of them, too.  Sheffield had 100 RBIs for five different teams and finished with 509 career home runs.

9. Omar Vizquel, Shortstop (1989-93 Mariners, 1994-2004 Indians, 2005-08 Giants, 2009 Rangers, 2010-11 White Sox, 2012 Blue Jays): Whether I vote for Omar Vizquel or not depends almost entirely on who else is on the ballot that year.  For a while, he wasn't among the 10 best players eligible, so I didn't put him down.  Other years he is, so I do.  I understand that a vote for Vizquel is controversial because of his legal issues.  But I can't ignore what he did on the baseball field as a tremendous defensive shortstop for nearly a quarter of a century.

10. Mark Buehrle, Pitcher (2000-11 White Sox, 2012 Marlins, 2013-15 Blue Jays): Oh man, did I have a hard time deciding between Mark Buehrle and David Wright for the final spot!  Ultimately, I decided to stick with Buehrle, who was also my 10th selection last year.  They were both outstanding at their peak, but Buehrle's peak lasted a little longer, which was my tiebreaker.  He was the definition of an ace.  The White Sox could count on him for 200 innings every year, and he won four consecutive Gold Gloves.  There's little to no chance Mark Buerhle will ever actually be elected to the Hall of Fame.  But he was one of the top pitchers in the American League throughout the early 2000s.

So, there you have it.  Other than Wright, the only first-timer I see getting the requisite 5 percent is Chase Utley (who I also briefly considered).  Beltre and Mauer will, of course, get well over 5 percent.  They'll get over 75, in fact.  Beltre, Mauer and Helton get in, with Billy Wagner coming painfully close before taking the stage in 2025, when a certain Japanese outfielder and a big lefty are among the first-time eligibles.