2023 NFL Picks, Conference Championships

There are so many interesting storylines surrounding this season's Conference Championship Games and all four potential Super Bowl matchups.  One of the most fascinating to me is how neither of the Conference Championships is a regular season rematch, but three of the four Super Bowl matchups would be.  The only one that isn't is Chiefs-49ers.  Baltimore and Detroit played both of their potential opponents during the season, in fact.  The Ravens blew out both the Lions and 49ers, while that Lions win over the Chiefs on opening night set the stage for their season to come.

Then there's this one about the 49ers.  They won each of their first five Super Bowl appearances, but have lost their last two.  Their opponents in those two games?  Baltimore and Kansas City. 

And, this didn't dawn on me until I was at the Paley Center Super Bowl exhibit and they had a section about the halftime shows.  We all know about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, so, it's probably safe to assume she'll be in Las Vegas for the Super Bowl if the Chiefs win.  And Detroit native Eminem is a regular at Lions games.  So, we already know there will be plenty of celebrities at the Super Bowl...especially with the game in Las Vegas.  But, Chiefs-Lions would give us Taylor Swift vs. Eminem.

What's funny, too, is that the Chiefs have essentially become the Patriots.  If you ask anyone who they want to win, the answer will probably be something along the lines of "anybody but the Chiefs."  And, if you think back, the Chiefs really have taken over the Patriots' role.  Tom Brady's last AFC Championship Game was Patrick Mahomes' first.  And Kansas City's been in every AFC Championship Game since then.

Of course, for most people, the answer to the question "who do you want to win?" is Detroit.  The Lions won a grand total of one playoff game in 56 years between winning the 1957 NFL Championship Game and last season.  They've now won two in two weeks.  And they're the only NFC team that's never been to the Super Bowl, so it's easy to see why they're the sentimental favorite.  Except in maybe San Francisco, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago and Green Bay.

One last note before I actually start talking about the games.  The NFC Championship Game is in San Francisco.  That's nothing new.  The 49ers have hosted it a lot.  The AFC Championship Game, meanwhile, is in Baltimore for the first time since the 1970 season, when the Colts hosted the very first one.  Both of the Ravens' AFC titles came on the road, and they've also lost twice on the road.  This is their first one at home.

Chiefs (13-6) at Ravens (14-4): Kansas City-Playing on the road is a challenge that Kansas City embraced last week.  It's been rare that the Chiefs have felt they had anything to prove during this run, but they certainly did against the Bills.  And they proved it.  It was another classic between those two, but the Chiefs got the job done on that last drive and forced the field goal attempt.  And we all know how that turned out.

That might've been the Chiefs' best all-around effort of the season, in fact.  The offense moved the ball better and Mahomes finally had viable options other than Kelce.  And I don't think Kansas City's defense gets enough credit.  They haven't allowed 30 points in a game all season.  That's why they were able to keep winning games while the offense was struggling, and it's what gives them a chance against the Ravens' mighty offense.

Baltimore, meanwhile, was utterly dominant against Houston.  The Texans' only touchdown game on a punt return.  The Ravens defense limited the Houston offense to just a field goal while Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense looked as good as it has all year.  They've been a Super Bowl favorite for most of the season, and they sure looked like a Super Bowl team in the Divisional round.

This matchup really is fascinating.  Both teams have an MVP quarterback leading an offense that can put up points on anybody.  But they've also both got a defense that's capable of shutting even the best offenses down.  It seems more likely that this'll be a shootout than a defensive struggle.  Yet you also get the feeling that one big play on defense will be what decides the game.

While I can easily see either team winning, I think it's Kansas City's defense that makes the big play.  Mahomes has been in this situation before.  This is the sixth straight time, in fact.  Lamar hasn't.  He'll be the one to make the costly mistake and the Chiefs head to their fourth Super Bowl in five years.

Lions (14-5) at 49ers (13-5): San Francisco-In the NFC, we've got an interesting situation where the visiting team in the Championship Game actually has more wins than the home team.  That's something that hasn't happened since the 70s, when the home team alternated by division rather than the teams being seeded by record.  It's, of course, only a result of the Lions playing an extra game because the 49ers had the bye, but it's interesting nonetheless.

The Lions played two fantastic games in the first two rounds.  Against the Rams, they scored on their first three drives before it was the defense that won it for them at the end.  Then against the Bucs, they had two long drives in the fourth quarter drive to take the lead before the defense once again closed it out with an interception.  This is a team that looked very capable of not just getting to the Super Bowl, but winning it.

However, both of those games were in Detroit.  Now they hit the road, where they haven't won a playoff game since 1957.  They'll obviously be the sentimental favorite, but not having the home crowd could end up making a huge difference.  Especially since they're taking on a 49ers team that doesn't want to lose another NFC Championship Game.

San Francisco is here for the third straight season and the fourth time in five years.  They've only won a single NFC title during that span, though.  However, there's a big difference between this year's game and their losses to the Rams and Eagles.  This time, they're playing at home.  And, unlike last year, they actually have a healthy quarterback and an offense that's firing on all cylinders (to go along with their elite defense).

Green Bay almost pulled off the massive upset last week, so this will by no means be a 49ers runaway.  Ultimately, though, I think playing at home, having the rest and, frankly, being the better team will be the difference.  The Lions have had a magical run.  Unfortunately, as much as I'd love to see it continue, I think their run comes to an end one game short of the Super Bowl.  The one potential Super Bowl matchup we didn't see in the regular season is the one we'll get.  The 49ers and Chiefs meet again four years later.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 7-3
Overall: 175-107