One Extra Day of Tennis

This year, the Australian Open followed the French Open's lead and became the second Grand Slam tournament with a Sunday start (don't expect Wimbledon or the US Open to follow suit anytime soon).  The reason they gave for the additional day was to reduce the number of late-night finishes.  It's not uncommon for the night session to still be going when Americans are waking up to start their day in the morning, which is after midnight in Australia.  And, obviously, the longer the match, the later the finish.

Except the extra day isn't really gonna help the late finishes at all.  Because the night sessions will still start at the same time (7 p.m. in Australia, 3 a.m. Eastern), so it's not like two long matches will end any earlier.  And all they're using the extra day for was to extend the first round from two days to three.  So, after the first round, the tournament schedule is exactly the same anyway.  Which means the Sunday start will, in practice, only give them two extra sessions for which they can sell tickets.  The late finishes will still happen.

It's funny how ESPN is also bragging about how many more hours of coverage they'll have on ESPN & ESPN2, as opposed to just streaming on ESPN+, this year.  But there's an extra day, so that's more hours right there.  And the rest are the result of them putting those overnight sessions back on ESPN2 after they were only on ESPN+ last year (as if they show anything else at 3 a.m.).  They got plenty of backlash for that, so this is nothing more than a course correction.

ESPN is doing something cool with their coverage, though.  They'll have one-hour highlight shows on ABC on the weekends.  It's not the full replays of the finals like they have at Wimbledon, but it's more than they've done in the past.  And, who knows?  Maybe that's where it's headed.

As for the tournament itself, the biggest story involves the guy who has dominated the Australian Open throughout his career.  And it would only be fitting if Novak Djokovic extends his record with an 11th title (and fifth straight if you exclude 2022, when he wasn't allowed to enter the country).  Because his US Open title was his 24th Grand Slam singles championship, which equaled Margaret Court's all-time record.  Is there any better place for him to win No. 25 and become the solo record-holder?

A healthy Djokovic is always such an overwhelming favorite in Australia that it's tough to say who'll even challenge him.  He hasn't lost a match here since 2018, and he's made the final in 10 of the 11 Grand Slam tournaments he's played in since he defaulted in the fourth round of the 2020 US Open.  Djokovic is already the best player in history, and he's been playing some of the best tennis of his career.  So, yeah, it's his tournament to lose.

Daniil Medvedev is a two-time finalist here and lost to Djokovic in the US Open final, so he's probably the player with the best chance at knocking him off.  Then there's Carlos Alcaraz, the clear No. 2 player in the world.  He's only played in the Australian Open twice in his career and missed last year's tournament with an injury, so this is his first time playing as one of the favorites.  Alcaraz has won both Wimbledon and the US Open, so it's not like the surface will be an issue for him.

There are a few other players who I think can make noise, even if they won't challenge Djokovic.  One is Alexander Zverev, who's still waiting for that first Grand Slam title to go along with his Olympic gold medal from Tokyo.  Stefanos Tsitsipas, meanwhile, made the final last year, losing to Djokovic.  Then there's Andrey Rublev, who's made the quarters at five of the last six Grand Slam tournaments, but has never gone any further.  You've gotta think he's poised for a breakthrough at some point.

Meanwhile, one player is worth noting for not being here.  Rafael Nadal announced last year that he's retiring after the French Open.  This was supposed to be his final Australian Open.  However, last week, in his first tournament back after a long layoff, he tweaked the hip injury that forced him to miss the bulk of 2023.  As a result, he had to withdraw.  Hopefully he can play in the French Open and make a final farewell.

Even if healthy, Nadal would've been a longshot.  Frankly, anybody not named Djokovic is a longshot.  Somebody on the other side of the draw will make the final, though.  And I think that person will be Alexander Zverev (who's beaten him before...he ended Novak's hopes for a Golden Slam in the semifinals of the Tokyo Olympics).

While Nadal's comeback is on hold, the women's tournament is full of players making their return after extended absences.  Former Australian Open champions Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber are both back after giving birth last year, while Emma Raducanu has dealt with a myriad of injuries that kept her sidelined for most of 2023.  Caroline Wozniacki is also playing in her first Australian Open since 2020, when she retired from tennis after losing in the third round, only to resume her career last year.

At the US Open, Wozniacki lost a three-set fourth round match to Coco Gauff, who went on to win the title.  And you sure got the feeling that it won't be the only time she lifts the trophy at the end of a Grand Slam final.  Gauff has never been past the fourth round in Australia, but she's never played the tournament as a Grand Slam champion before.  As fate would have it, Wozniacki and Gauff are on track to meet in the quarterfinals, assuming Gauff beats Osaka in the previous round.  So, if she gets through that, she'll certainly be battle tested.

Wozniacki, Osaka and Kerber aren't the only unseeded former champions in the women's draw.  There's also Sofia Kenin, who drew world No. 1 Sofia Kenin in the first round.  Victoria Azarenka, meanwhile, is a two-time champ.  That was a decade ago, however.  The defending champion is Aryna Sabalenka, who also won the US Open and was briefly world No. 1 last year.  Sabalenka's as good a bet as anybody on the women's side.

So is the player she defeated in last year's final--Elena Rybakina.  However, Rybakina will have to go through another American who seems poised for a Grand Slam breakthrough.  Jessica Pegula has gotten as high as No. 3 in the world (she's currently No. 5) despite never having made it past the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam.  She's been to the quarters here in each of the last three years, so you know she's comfortable on these courts.  And she reached the final at the 2023 WTA Finals, which could be the boost she needed to get past that quarterfinal hump (she's 0-6 career in Grand Slam quarterfinals).

I think this is the year that changes.  Pegula's parents own the Buffalo Bills and Sabres, so she's always playing in the Australian Open at the same time the Bills are in the playoffs.  I sense good things for all Pegulas in January 2024.  The Bills are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  And Jessica's my pick to win the Australian Open.

Pegula and Gauff are doubles partners, who made the semis here in doubles last year.  This year, I see them both making the semis in singles, with Gauff losing to Sabalenka.  Pegula then beats Sabalenka in the final, as she follows up her friend's first Grand Slam singles title with a first career Grand Slam singles title of her own.