2023 NFL Picks, Divisional

Of the six games last weekend, one was competitive.  The fact that it was Lions-Rams, the most anticipated game of the bunch, which they put on Sunday night for that very reason, sure worked out, but still, other than that one, they were all decided pretty early.  I'm also not sure NBC should be bragging about the Peacock ratings for Chiefs-Dolphins the way they have been because (1) they're just pissing people off more and (2) while a lot of people did sign up for Peacock just to watch the game, the NFL also likely cost itself millions of viewers by not having a non-streaming option.  So, I'm very curious to see what they do with that sixth wild card game moving forward.

Fortunately, this week, streaming is an option, but not the only one.  Although, in a new twist that came as a part of the new TV contract, the Divisional Playoffs are split between the four main broadcast networks for the first time.  Along with getting thrown into the Super Bowl rotation, ESPN/ABC now gets a Divisional Playoff game, which means we get Joe & Troy one more time this season.

Texans (11-7) at Ravens (13-4): Baltimore-After playing 16 consecutive Sunday at 1:00 games, the Texans now play on their third successive Saturday.  Their spot in the Divisional Playoffs is well-earned, too.  First, they won a winner-take-all game in Indianapolis, then they avenged a Christmas Eve loss to the Browns with a truly exceptional defensive performance.  One of the most telling stats from that game is that Houston's offense didn't step on the field for a span of like nine minutes in the third quarter...and the Texans scored 14 points during that span.

Against the top-seeded Ravens, things will be a little different.  There's little debate that Baltimore is the best team in the NFL, and their Week 18 loss to the Steelers in disgusting conditions didn't do anything to change any minds about them.  Lamar Jackson is the likely MVP and as he goes, the Ravens go.  Stopping Baltimore's offense will be the key for Houston, while likely Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud will have to figure out a way to do anything against the Ravens' defense.

Houston is the only team in the NFL to have never played in a conference championship game.  There's still that hope for the dream Super Bowl between the Texans and Lions, but Houston has to clear that Divisional Playoff hurdle first.  Unfortunately, it looks like they'll remain winless all-time in Divisional Playoff games.  The Ravens are too good.

Packers (10-8) at 49ers (12-5): San Francisco-No result last week was a bigger surprise than Green Bay-Dallas.  It's not just that the Packers won.  It's that they went into Jerry's World, a place where the Cowboys haven't lost in two years, and completely dominated.  The Dallas defense could do literally nothing to stop them, and the result was a 48-32 shellacking that left the NFC East as the only division not represented on Divisional Playoff weekend.

That was the ninth-ever playoff game between Green Bay and Dallas, the most in history.  The Packers will tie their own record this week when they head to San Francisco for their ninth-ever playoff meeting with the 49ers.  I'd like to say Green Bay will be outclassed by a superior team, but I also thought that about Dallas, and we all know how that turned out!  Going on the road is obviously not a problem, being the underdog is obviously not a problem, and the Packers have a four-game winning streak and loads of confidence.

Still, San Francisco's just better.  The 49ers sat basically their entire starting lineup in Week 18 and still only lost by a point to the Rams.  I think having the only bye in the new format is a huge advantage, too.  They've spent two weeks resting up and, outside of that three-week stretch in the middle of the season, have been consistently good on both sides of the ball all season.  It'll be an uphill battle for the Packers.  San Francisco advances to another NFC Championship Game.

Buccaneers (10-8) at Lions (13-5): Detroit-Call me crazy, but I can see the Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl.  This isn't an "it would be cool to see the Lions finally get there" thought, either.  I legitimately think Detroit can be a Super Bowl team.  Last week, they had the weight of the world on them, and they showed up big time for their first home playoff game in 30 years!  Scoring on their first three drives, then the defense holding the Rams to field goals on three red zone drives in the second half, which proved to be the difference in a 24-23 win.

And now, suddenly, after waiting 30 years for a playoff game in Detroit, they get another one a week later.  It must've been weird for Lions fans to be sitting there cheering for the Packers in Dallas, knowing what a Green Bay victory would mean.  Well, they got it.  They're the first 3-seed ever to host a Divisional Playoff game, and they've got a real shot at ending their 32-year NFC Championship Game drought.

Count out Tampa Bay at your own risk, though.  It was never in doubt against the Eagles on Monday night, and they've had some impressive performances this season.  It's not like they haven't played spoiler before, either.  Still, though, you just get that feeling about the Lions.  In the first 57 years of the Super Bowl's existence, Detroit won a grand total of one playoff game.  They've already doubled that.  Now they'll make it two playoff wins in a row.

Chiefs (12-6) at Bills (12-6): Buffalo-Patrick Mahomes officially plays a road playoff game for the first time in his career.  (I say "officially" because he has played one before.  Even though it was technically considered a "neutral site," the Chiefs played the Bucs in Tampa in Super Bowl LV.  Sorry, but in no way, shape or form, was that a neutral site.)  And it comes against a Bills team that's been waiting for its chance to host the Chiefs.  The last five meetings between the teams, including two in the playoffs, have been in Kansas City, while the Chiefs haven't visited Western New York since 2020.

When they met in Week 14, the Bills were reeling.  They were 6-6 and in 11th place in the AFC.  If they'd loss, there was a very good chance they might not even make the playoffs.  Instead, they went into Arrowhead and got a season-saving 20-17 victory that propelled them on this six-game winning streak.  That win is the reason why this game is in Buffalo, and the reason why Mahomes and Co. had to get on a plane before the Super Bowl for the first time.

It wasn't exactly warm last Saturday night in Kansas City, so I don't think the weather will be a factor.  The hostile crowd sure could be, though.  Especially since, let's not forget, Bills fans aren't particularly fond of the Chiefs.  Not after those two controversial playoff games in recent seasons.  I'm not going to pretend Kansas City can't win this game.  Everyone knows the Chiefs can.  The Bills have just been giving off that aura for more than a month, though.  They finally get the chance to play Kansas City at home.  They won't waste it.

Last Week: 4-2
Overall: 172-106