Sunday, October 9, 2011

Week 5 Picks

We're a quarter of the way into the NFL season, which means now we start getting to the bye weeks.  Six teams are off this week, including the Rams.  Why is that significant?  Because that means I can't use Sam Bradford as my fantasy quarterback.  Since my only other QB is some guy named Peyton, who I'm not going to be stupid enough to drop on the off chance he does come back this season, I had to pick one up...and the best guy available was Jason Campbell.  As a result, I was fully expecting a fantasy loss.  Then we got the sad news about Al Davis on Saturday.  I have a feeling his death will motivate the Raiders to "Just Win Baby" this week.  Anyway, on to the picks:

Eagles at Bills: Philadelphia-The Bills dropped from the ranks of the undefeated with a loss to Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, the Eagles are in real trouble, having lost three in a row.  Even still, I think Philadelphia is the better team.  The Bills have been a nice story all season, but Philly's going to wreak of desperation pretty soon if they lose this game.  I don't think they do.  I'm going with the Eagles.

Chiefs at Colts: Indianapolis-I know that I swore I wouldn't pick the Colts until they finally won a game, but I don't really think I have a choice other than to go against my little self-imposed rule this week.  They're playing the Chiefs at home.  Minnesota played Kansas City last week and got its first win.  Same thing happens for the quasi-Colts this week.

Cardinals at Vikings: Arizona-Speaking of the Vikings, they host Arizona this week.  Neither team is good, but Arizona is slightly less bad.  I'm taking the Cardinals on the road.

Seahawks at Giants: Giants-This is my Survival Football pick of the week.  The Giants have been on a roll since losing to the Redskins in Week 1, capped by last week's comeback in Arizona in a game they really should have lost.  It's always a safe bet to go against any NFC West team in a non-division game against a good team.

Titans at Steelers: Pittsburgh-The Steelers are a surprising 2-2 after losing to the Texans in Houston last week.  The Titans, meanwhile, are tied with Houston for first place in the AFC South.  After losing to Baltimore in Week 1, Pittsburgh rebounded by shutting out Seattle at home.  Well, they lost last week and they're home this week.  I like that combination for the Black & Gold.

Saints at Panthers: New Orleans-How many fantasy points will Cam Newton compile, how many touchdown passes will Drew Brees throw, and how many points will the Saints win by?

Bengals at Jaguars: Jacksonville-I feel bad for the poor fans who are subjected to having to watch this game.  Fortunately, it's probably only people in Cincinnati who'll be in that situation.

Raiders at Texans: Oakland-With this game, I did something I usually never do.  I changed my pick.  Houston at home was too tempting a choice until we got Saturday's sad news.  It's very possible Oakland is overcome by emotion and the Texans run all over them.  I think the opposite will happen, though.  They'll win a game for the man who WAS the franchise.  After all, his coined the phrase, "Just Win Baby!"

Buccaneers at 49ers: Tampa Bay-This is a very interesting matchup between two first place teams.  The Bucs are coming off nice wins over Atlanta and Indianapolis, but both of those games were at home.  This week, they'll be tested on the road against Jim Harbaugh's bunch.  I can easily see this one going either way.  But I'm going to say the Bucs win it.

Chargers at Broncos: San Diego-Playing a bunch of division games early in the season is a really good remedy to the Chargers' usual slow start.  Both teams are off next week, which means the Broncos can't lose in Week 6.

Jets at Patriots: New England-The showdown between AFC East superpowers is easily the game of the week.  The Jets are finishing up a three-game road trip that started with losses in Oakland and Baltimore.  The Patriots lost to the Bills, then did what good teams usually do against the Raiders...crush them.  These might be the two best teams in the AFC.  But the Jets are reeling right now.  Belichick knows that and will probably take advantage of it.  I think the Jets and Patriots will split this season, which means the Jets win the rematch at MetLife Stadium on a Sunday night in mid-November.

Packers at Falcons: Green Bay-The Falcons have a chance to redeem themselves for last year's embarrassing Divisional Playoff loss.  Atlanta hosted Sunday Night Football just three weeks ago and got a statement win against the Eagles.  Then they proceeded to lose in Tampa Bay before barely getting by Seattle.  Meanwhile, the Packers haven't lost since Week 15 of last season.  This could be their first blemish since then, but I think that comes in San Diego in Week 9.  The Packers stay undefeated.

Bears at Lions: Detroit-Ladies and gentlemen, Monday Night Football (without Hank Williams, Jr.) returns to Detroit!  And the Lions are actually playing this time!  This isn't just a "they were decent last year, so let's throw them a bone" type of game, either.  The Lions enter the game undefeated!  This is a good matchup between divisional rivals.  A Bears win will keep Chicago in contention in the NFC North, which houses both of the remaining undefeated teams.  But the Lions aren't going to let this non-Thanksgiving national showcase opportunity get away from them.  This is going to be a good sports week in downtown Detroit.  The Lions host Monday Night Football, then the Tigers play in the ALCS on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  It starts with a win.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 41-23

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