It seems so weird to say it, seeing as they're good every year, but I'm shocked the St. Louis Cardinals are in the World Series. And I don't think I'm alone. I'm still not even really sure how they made the playoffs. Let alone how they won the pennant. But they did. First the Braves pissed away an 8.5-game lead, then the Cardinals beat the two best teams in the National League (winning both clinching games on the road) to advance to their 18th World Series. It's safe to say that this is the most unexpected of those 18 appearances.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers defended their American League crown, mainly because Nelson Cruz came up in the 11th inning twice in the ALCS. I'm not going to say the Rangers being here is completely unexpected, but it is at least a little bit of a surprise. That lineup is ridiculous, but a rotation that includes C.J. Wilson and three other guys you wouldn't expect to be able to carry a team to the World Series. But it did, and the Rangers became the first World Series loser to get back the following year since the 1991-92 Braves. Now they look to become the first team to win the World Series the year after losing it since Cardinals manager Tony La Russa guided the A's to the title in 1989.
Regardless, here we are with a World Series matchup between teams that represent states we've since learned are part of the Southeast, not the Midwest. The Wild Card-inals became the eighth National League wild card to advance to the World Series (and the fourth to do so by defeating the winners of their own division in the NLCS), and the first since the 2007 Rockies, while the Rangers are the first team to win consecutive American League pennants since the 1998-2001 Yankees. And in a crazy little twist, the AL won the All-Star Game every year from 2003-09, earning home field advantage in the World Series as a result. Now the Rangers have won back-to-back AL pennants, and started the World Series on the road each time. (Cool fact courtesy of Wikipedia: Game 1 will be the Rangers' first game ever in St. Louis. The only time the Rangers and Cardinals have ever played an interleague series was in Texas in 2004.)
The lack of a DH in Games 1 and 2 really hurt the Rangers last year. I don't see that being as big of an issue this time, though. Somehow they managed to make everything with Michael Young work out, and he'll probably start at first base. Seeing as the No. 9 hitter in the Texas lineup throughout the postseason has been either Mitch Moreland, Yorvit Torrealba or Craig Gentry, I don't really think putting a pitcher in that spot is going to make that much of a difference. And considering the fact Nelson Cruz hits seventh! in this lineup, I don't think the Rangers are going to have the same problem scoring runs against the Cardinals that they had against the Giants last year.
As for the Cardinals, I still don't know who three-quarters of the guys on this team are. There's Albert, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Chris Carpenter and, yeah, that's about it for the guys I've heard of. Their best pitcher is Adam Wainwright, who's been on the DL all season! Seriously, how is this team in the World Series? It certainly isn't because of their starting pitching. The Cardinals' starters weren't good against the Brewers. In six games against Milwaukee, none of them got out of the fifth inning, and the bullpen got more outs than the starters did. I repeat: How did the Cardinals win the pennant?
St. Louis isn't going to have that luxury against Texas. Look at what happened to Max Scherzer in the third inning of Game 6 of the ALCS for proof of what the Rangers' lineup can do. If the Cardinals are going to have any chance in this series, they need their starters to step up. Carpenter has to pitch like an ace and Jaime Garcia needs to resemble the guy who should've made the All-Star team. If the starters get knocked out early, that probably means the Rangers will have a lead. The Rangers have a much better bullpen than the Brewers, which will make it harder for the Cardinals to come back if they fall behind. That's one area where Texas has a definite advantage. However, the Cardinals' rotation is better, which is why they need to come through in a big way. Finding some way to shut down the Texas offense is the only way I see St. Louis winning this series.
Regardless, there's going to be some scoring in these games. The Rangers offense did nothing against that ridiculous Giants pitching staff last year. This Cardinals staff is NOT that Giants staff by any means. And even with Cliff Lee, the Rangers' pitchers didn't get the job done in the 2010 World Series. Likewise, this Cardinals lineup is NOT that Giants lineup. Albert's got some friends. The Cardinals boasted the top offense in the National League this season, and it got even better when some dude named David Freese went off in the NLCS. And I don't need to tell you about the Rangers' lineup. The Texas offense is better than it was last year.
What this all means, in my opinion, is that it's going to come down to pitching. On paper, I think the Cardinals' rotation is slightly better. And the Rangers have three left-handed starters. They were able to get away with that against Detroit, but the Cardinals boast a significant amount of right-handed power. But if it gets into the bullpens, it's advantage Texas. The Rangers have the nasty Alexi Ogando in the bullpen, as well as Mike Adams setting up Neftali Feliz. Tony La Russa showed us during the NLCS that he isn't afraid to give his pitchers the hook. He also showed us that he trusts everybody out there. I don't see the Cardinals' bullpen being able to do that two series in a row, though (actually, it's three if you count Game 2 against the Phillies).
I have a feeling that this could end up like 2002, when there were six shootouts until John Lackey was brilliant in Game 7. Somebody's going to get a big start from one of their pitchers. It's just a question of who. Albert's another X-factor. He didn't have a good series in either of his first two World Series appearances (2004 loss to the Red Sox, 2006 win vs. the Tigers). He's the face of the franchise and an impending free agent (he's not going anywhere) who would love to deliver another title to the best baseball town in America.
So, who's the pick? Nolan Ryan said Rangers in six. I'm inclined to agree with him. The Rangers are better and deeper, and they have the experience, as well as the memory of losing last year. But seeing as I've correctly picked the winner in a whopping two of the first six playoff series, we might as well congratulate the Cardinals for winning the 2011 World Series.
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