Thursday, October 6, 2011

NHL Preview

Lost in the Division Series Game 5 goodness is the start of the NHL season, which got underway tonight.  The Rangers open tomorrow against the Kings in Sweden.  After completely ignoring the NHL last year (which was one of the main reasons I started this blog), I was impressed that Sports Illustrated acknowledged the start of the season by putting Tim Thomas on the cover this week.  Even though it still seems early to be talking about hockey, since the season has begun, I guess now's as good a time as any to take a break from baseball and talk some hockey.  For the season preview, let's do this by division...

Atlantic-SI picked Pittsburgh to win the Cup, but Sidney Crosby is still out with that concussion he suffered in January.  Who knows when he's going to be able to come back?  Without the best player on the planet on the ice, I don't see the Penguins challenging for the Stanley Cup.  They're too good NOT to make the playoffs, but won't make a deep run without Crosby.  Besides, the best team in the division is the Flyers.  On paper, Philadelphia certainly looks like the team to beat in the Atlantic Division, if not the entire Eastern Conference.  Jaromir Jagr decided to come back to the NHL and bolsters an already deep Philadelphia offense, but the Flyers' biggest move was going out and getting a goalie who's actually good: Ilya Bryzgalov.  That could pay huge dividends in April, May and especially June.  The Rangers try their hardest not to make the playoffs every year, and I think they'll be in that same boat again this season.  Having an All-World goalie in Henrik Lundqvist is obviously a good thing and the addition of Brad Richards should help the offense.  But I wonder how long the Rangers will take off in the middle of the season.  The Devils greatly underachieved last year.  I don't expect that to happen again.  Marty Brodeur is old, but he's still good.  And Ilya Kovalchuk is out to prove that ridiculous contract isn't such a waste.  Otherwise, they don't have much else.  The Devils will contend for a playoff spot, though.  The New York Islanders are also members of the Atlantic Division.

Northeast-The Bruins enter the season as the defending Stanley Cup champs for the first time since 1972-73.  Boston is certainly locked and loaded for another deep run, but I'm not sure if they'll get all the breaks that they got last season.  I still think the Bruins are the best team in the Northeast Division, though.  The second-best team in this division is Montreal, which I think has the weapons to challenge its rivals from New England.  The Canadiens added Erik Cole to improve their offense, which should work.  They're going to need to score a lot of goals because relying on Carey Price to win games is a risky proposition.  The Sabres won't be as good as they were last year.  Tim Connolly and Rob Niedermayer are gone, and their big additions were Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff.  That strengthens the defense in front of Ryan Miller, who's one of the best goalies in the game.  If Miller stays healthy, the Sabres will be good enough to get back to the playoffs.  It's hard to believe that a team that plays in the largest city in a hockey-mad country has been this bad for this long, but I think the Maple Leafs are on their way back.  It won't be this year, but that long-awaited return to the playoffs might come in 2012-13.  Ottawa should be better than the team that finished 13th in the conference last season, but not enough to improve its chances in a division that has three good teams.

Southeast-This division has suddenly gotten a lot more competitive, as Washington won't be able to simply collect points by beating its lowly division rivals all the time anymore.  Even still, the Capitals are the best team in this division.  After getting their asses kicked by the Lightning in the playoffs, they realized they can't simply outscore everybody if they want to win the Cup.  So, they went out and got Tomas Vokoun to play goal.  But Tampa Bay and Washington are thisclose.  The Lightning have one of the most dynamic players in the game in Steven Stamkos.  Add franchise mainstays Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis and you've got a powerful offense that's going to score a lot of goals.  The Hurricanes just missed the playoffs last year, but lost their best player, Erik Cole, in free agency.  I'm not sure they'll be able to make the jump this season.  Who knows what kind of an impact playing in a city that actually knows it has a hockey team and in an arena where people are actually aware there's a game going on will have on the Artists Formerly Known as the Atlanta Thrashers?  On paper, Winnipeg isn't really that good.  But having owners and fans who actually care about the team could make a huge difference.  Unfortunately, the Panthers still play in Miami.  I don't see a way they avoid extending their NHL record to 11 straight years without making the playoffs.

Central-With the exception of Chicago's Stanley Cup victory two years ago, Detroit has been the class of this division for a decade.  That shouldn't change this year.  The Red Wings are the Patriots of the NHL.  They'll put together the same consistently good regular season they always do, then lose in the playoffs.  I don't think that'll be any different this year.  Pekka Rinne is a star in the making in Nashville.  I give the Predators credit for finding a way to be competitive in this tough division year after year.  Nashville won a playoff series for the first time last season.  They might win another this year.  The St. Louis Blues making the playoffs used to be as much of a constant as death and taxes.  After a few down years, I think this might be the season they work their way back to respectability.  But their big offseason acquisitions were veterans Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner, who won the Cup together a decade ago with the Devils.  That could be a risk.  After winning the Cup in 2009-10, the Blackhawks snuck into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed last season.  I'm not sure they'll get that lucky this year.  But they've still got Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith, so anything's possible.  Rick Nash is still stuck playing in Columbus, which is praying it gets moved to the Eastern Conference when Winnipeg shifts to the West next season.

Northwest-Things were all set up for the Vancouver Canucks last season, but a dirty hit turned the series and, after working all season to get the home ice, they dropped Game 7 of the Finals at home.  Regardless, the Canucks are still loaded and are still the class of a relatively weak division.  Another trip to the Finals wouldn't surprise me.  As I said, the rest of this division isn't that good.  Minnesota added Dany Heatley, which probably makes them the second-best team in the division, but the Wild will at best be fighting for a playoff spot.  The same goes for Colorado, the one-time class of this division.  The Avalanche are on their way back to contention, though, and I think they might surprise some teams.  Hockey in Alberta suffered through a down year in 2010-11.  The 2011-12 campaign could be another one.  The Flames are in better condition to contend, but outside of Jarome Iginla, they don't have anybody you'd want to build a team around.  They missed the playoffs last year and didn't really get any better in the offseason.  The Edmonton Oilers' glory days of Gretzky and Messier must seem like they were 100 years ago.  But the good thing about being bad for so long is the collection of high draft picks you get as a result.  Once those guys start arriving in Edmonton, the Oilers are in good shape.  Until then?  Not so much.

Pacific-Last season, Vancouver finally made the jump and won the conference title.  This year, it might be the Sharks' turn.  San Jose has been one of the best teams in the West for the past couple of seasons, and I don't see that changing this year.  The Sharks are loaded.  They lost Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, but so what?  They replaced them with Michal Handzus and Martin Havlat.  The Ducks have too much talent to be left out of the discussion, too.  They aren't as good as their friends from the Bay Area, but a loaded offense and an All-Star goalie (Jonas Hiller) could keep the Ducks fighting tooth and nail with the Sharks all season.  Hockey is surprisingly good in Southern California these days, as the Kings got better, too, adding both Simon Gagne and Mike Richards.  I'm still not completely sold on LA as a contender, but it wouldn't entirely surprise me, either.  This division is so deep that Dallas finished last in the division, yet barely missed the playoffs last season.  The Stars might be in a similar situation again this year, but it's also entirely possible that the entire Pacific Division makes the playoffs.  Either way, the Stars will probably have to rely on goalie Kari Lehtonen to get better.  Now that the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg, going back to being the Jets suddenly was no longer an option for the Coyotes.  This still might be their last season in Phoenix, though, since I think reality sets in after a couple seasons of surprising success.

Playoff Teams: EAST-Flyers, Capitals, Bruins, Lightning, Canadiens, Penguins, Sabres, Rangers
WEST-Canucks, Red Wings, Sharks, Ducks, Kings, Predators, Blues, Blackhawks

Stanley Cup Finals: Sharks over Flyers

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