As I've made perfectly clear, I have no interest in the NBA. I don't watch it, nor do I plan on starting. This hasn't always been the case. The NBA in the 1990s was outstanding. Then there was the 1998-99 lockout. That's what turned me off to the NBA. 12 years later, I still haven't come back. While I'm still not really that clear on the details of that work stoppage, I do know this: the current lockout is a direct result of that one.
The six-year CBA they agreed to in 1999 expired in 2005, when a new six-year agreement was reached. That deal expired on June 30, and the lockout started on July 1. The main points of contention are that the players receive 57 percent of all basketball-related revenue (which seems a bit high) and the owners wanting to institute a hard salary cap. The league claimed that it was losing $300 million a year. The players disputed that and opposed every change the owners wanted to institute. This lockout was inevitable. Everybody saw it coming.
And this lockout is completely different than the NFL lockout. For starters, the NFL lockout was simply about both sides being greedy. They both wanted to get as big a portion of the more than $1 billion the league makes annually as they could. But was there a single person who actually thought they wouldn't get a deal done before the start of the season? The NFL is the king. Why risk losing any part of that status by not starting the season on time? There was way too much money at stake. Both sides knew that.
The NBA, however, has actual issues that aren't going to be resolved that easily. Or anytime soon. That's why the negotiating sessions have been few and far between. The owners and players are so far apart that it's not as easy as "give a little, get a little." The players have agreed to lower their cut of BRI from 57 percent to 54 percent. The owners came back with 46 percent. That's a significant difference. Likewise, the owners don't just want to institute a hard salary cap, they want the players to take pay cuts, too. I'm not going to take a side, but I will say that the owners' problems are entirely of their own making. The only reason the players are making exorbitant salaries in the first place is because the owners are willing to pay them that much. What are the players supposed to do? Say "No?" However, I do think there are enough owners losing money that they felt a lockout was the only option. Sound familiar?
This lockout is reminiscent of the one that wiped out the entire 2004-05 NHL season. Everyone saw the NHL lockout coming, too, and everyone knew that it was going to be a prolonged struggle. The system was broken, and it needed fixing. The owners were willing to sacrifice the season if that's what it took, and that's exactly what they did. And when the lockout finally ended, they ended up with a better business model as a result. It obviously sucked for the fans to not have hockey, but that lockout was a necessary thing. Six years later, I'd even be willing to argue that it was a good thing. The NHL not only has a better business model, it's been a better product since the lockout ended.
It's safe to say that right now the NBA's business model is a broken as the NHL's was six years ago. Back then, the NHL owners felt that their only recourse was to lockout the players. They cancelled an entire season to show that they were serious. The NBA needs to do the same thing. The owners know that they'll eventually reach an agreement with the players, just like the players know that they'll only be able to hold out for so long before they inevitably give in on at least some issues. If it takes the cancellation of an entire season, so be it. The NHL took that drastic step and ended up better for it.
David Stern has already cancelled the first two weeks of the NBA schedule, with more cancellations to come. They probably won't play on Christmas, which has always been one of the NBA's signature days. There probably won't be an All-Star Game. And was there seriously anybody who didn't see all of this coming? The players are prepared for there to not be a season. That's why so many of them have signed contracts to play in Europe, much like the NHL guys did in 2004-05. So are the owners. Seeing as the lockout was their doing, that might've been their goal all along.
While the entire season hasn't been wiped out yet, I'd be shocked if there's any NBA basketball played this year. Frankly, it wouldn't benefit either side if there is. It would mean they both caved and rushed into a deal that neither side really liked just to save the season. And that would mean we'd have this situation all over again when that CBA expired. If games have already been cancelled, why rush into a deal instead of agreeing to the best one possible? Again, this isn't the NFL. The lockouts are entirely different.
Now, let me be clear about something. I don't care one way or the other whether the NBA plays this season at all. We all know they'll come to an agreement eventually and all of you people who actually watch the NBA will make your way back shortly thereafter. And when you do, you just might find a league that's better than the pre-lockout one you loved before.
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