After a first round that saw three Game 5's and both teams that had home field advantage go out, we move on from the Division Series to the AL and NLCS. It's interesting that the AL East put two teams in the playoffs, and they both lost the Division Series, while both NL Central teams that made the playoffs won theirs. And so we're left with three teams that play in the Central division and the defending American League champions.
I'd normally wait until the end of a post to give you my pick, but I've been saying this for a month: "Watch it be a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series." I'm eight wins away from being right. I believed it could happen a month ago, and I believe it will happen a week and a half from now.
ALCS: For the most part, the Tigers outplayed the Yankees throughout the Division Series. We all know they can hit, but it was Detroit's pitching that was most impressive. That bullpen was lights out, especially in Game 5, and they managed to win the series despite having Justin Verlander for only one game. Not using him in Game 5 was the right decision. Jim Leyland certainly would've been criticized had Detroit lost the game, but, while you obviously have to do whatever you can to win an elimination game, Game 1 of the next series has to be in the back of your mind. And now as a result of that decision, Leyland has Verlander available for a matchup of aces against C.J. Wilson in Game 1.
The Rangers were the only team that didn't need five games to win its Division Series, and Texas is obviously loaded. On paper, Tampa Bay had the superior pitching in that series. It didn't matter against the Rangers' lineup. Adrian Beltre was an absolute stud against the Rays. This offense is definitely better than the one that went to the World Series last year. It certainly helps the Rangers that they'll throw a lefty in five out of the seven games in the series. Jim Leyland is big on matchups and platooning, and his left-handed hitting lineup is better. The Tigers lineup is futher weakened if Delmon Young's injury is serious enough to keep him out of the lineup. Having that extra home game will definitely be an advantage for Texas, too.
I think there will be a lot of runs scored in this series. Other than Verlander and Wilson, the best players on these two teams are their hitters. They're incredibly evenly matched (Texas went 96-66 this season, Detroit went 95-67), which should make for a great ALCS. But I think Detroit's starting pitching is slightly better, and it just might be able to keep the Rangers' lineup in check. The Tigers' bullpen is slightly better, too. Both teams have a shutdown closer in Jose Valverde (Detroit) and Nefatli Feliz (Texas), but I'd rather have the guys that get the Tigers from the starters to Valverde. And that Verlander guy is the X-factor. If this goes seven, you don't think he'll be waiting in that Tigers bullpen? I've had this feeling about the Tigers for a while. I think the Rangers will become the second straight team to go from AL pennant winner to ALCS loser. Tigers in six.
NLCS: After four straight years of East vs. West, we not only have one NL Central team in the NLCS, we've got two! The Brewers and Cardinals have met in the playoffs before. In the 1982 World Series. Now they meet with a berth in the World Series on the line. Milwaukee is for real. I think the Brewers have proven that. Everyone knows about Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but how about Nyjer Morgan? He's the catalyst for this team, and it seemed only fitting that he was the one with the walk-off hit in the bottom of the 10th to beat Arizona in Game 5. You just get that sense the Brewers are going to win every night. Kind of like the 2009 Yankees. They're that team you get that feeling about without really knowing why. It certainly feels like the Brewers are a team of destiny.
But the Cardinals have that 2007 Rockies thing going on. They went 23-9 down the stretch to make up that 8.5 game deficit against the Braves, then beat a Phillies team that was anointed as World Champions before the season began. I'm not really sure how that happened, but I'm not going to be stupid enough to count them out. Plus, they've got the best player on the planet. I don't think the Cardinals are as good as the Brewers. I don't think they're as good as the Phillies either. We saw how much that mattered. Granted, Chris Carpenter threw a 1-0 shutout in Game 5, but still, St. Louis proved that anything can happen in the postseason. And let's not forget to give Tony La Russa his proper credit. He wasn't shy with his bullpen moves, which is why the Cardinals won Game 2. And Skip Schumaker got the start in center field in Game 5, and responded by driving in the game's only run.
I thought the Brewers had a chance of winning the pennant even if they played the Phillies. Against the Cardinals, I really like their chances. Carpenter and Jaime Garcia will keep St. Louis in the series, but the Brewers' pitching staff--Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo--is the most underrated part of the team. Both teams have a dynamic middle of the order, but Milwaukee's is deeper. The only place where I give the edge to St. Louis is in the bullpen. But that comes with an asterisk, because the back end of the Milwaukee bullpen (Francisco Rodrigez and John Axford) is outstanding. Jump on the Beerwagon everybody! Brewers in six. Bud Selig's team is going to the Series!
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