Now we move on to the NCAA Women's Tournament, which, like most years, will be much less suspenseful than the men's tournament. UConn is obviously the prohibitive favorite, but Stanford and Baylor are both capable of knocking off the Huskies in Indianapolis, if they manage to get there. The two best No. 2 seeds are Xavier and Texas A&M, which are in the same regions as Stanford and Baylor (more on that as we break the regions down).
Philadelphia-The Philadelphia (aka "East") Region is where the best team in the country resides. UConn is playing at home in the first two rounds. It's not really like that makes a difference, but any potential "Will the games be close?" suspense is gone. It's not even worth picking an upset special or saying who else has a chance at reaching the Final Four in this region, because getting stuck in the same region as UConn in the women's tournament is like getting stuck in Rafael Nadal's half of the draw in the French Open. Purdue-Kansas State and Iowa State-Marist are dynamite first-round matchups, but the winners of those games run into UConn and Duke teams that will be playing home games in the second round. Four teams are playing at home in this region, so I'm not really going out on a limb to say UConn, Maryland, Penn State and Duke will reach the Sweet 16. Not everybody's sold on Duke, but I do think they'll make it to the regional final, where Maya Moore awaits. Yes, UConn wins the game.
Dayton (aka "Mideast")-This is Tennessee's region, where Notre Dame is a dangerous No. 2 seed. Miami was in the discussion for a No. 2 seed, but got the No. 3 it deserved. The No. 4 seed is Ohio State, which has played some phenomenal basketball over the last month of the season, capped by a Big Ten Tournament win, to move from a No. 6-7 seed to No. 4 in this region. Upset specials in this region are Bowling Green over Georgia Tech (5-12) and James Madison over Oklahoma (6-11). Texas also beats Marquette, but 8-9 games officially don't count. Notre Dame is playing at No. 15 seed Utah in the first round, but that shouldn't make a difference. Sweet 16 is Tennessee, Ohio State, my upset special James Madison, which beats Miami, and Notre Dame. That Notre Dame-Tennessee regional final is a dandy, and a dangerous matchup for the Lady Vols. In fact, I like Skylar Diggins and the Irish.
Spokane ("West")-Stanford is the second-best team in the country, and probably the only one that isn't afraid of UConn. The Cardinal beat the Huskies in the 2008 Final Four and lost to UConn in last year's National Championship Game. Then they snapped the 90-game winning streak in December. Stanford's ready to make a return run to the Final Four, which won't be easy. Despite being the No. 11 seed, Gonzaga's playing at home all the way through (Washington State's technically hosting the Regional, but it's being played in Spokane). I wouldn't count out Courtney Vandersloot. Xavier remembers coming so close against Stanford last year, and gets the chance to take on the Cardinal again with a better team this year. But that doesn't matter. Stanford's on a mission. Joining the Cardinal, Musketeers and Zags in the Sweet 16 will be North Carolina, which wins a great 4-5 game with Kentucky. But the Stanford-Xavier regional final isn't going to be as close as last year.
Dallas ("Midwest")-Why are Baylor and Texas A&M both in this region? They've already played three times this season. The committee uses a policy where the best No. 2 seed is given its preferred region, but this puts the two best teams in the Big 12 meeting in a regional final (this happened with UConn and Rutgers a couple of years ago, too). They need to make it like the men's tournament where the top two teams in one conference can't be placed in the same region. All of this is pointless, though, since Texas A&M is going to lose to a very good Florida State team in the Sweet 16. The best team in the country that nobody knows about is fifth-seeded Green Bay, which WILL advance to the Sweet 16. It ends there, though, and Brittany Griner and Co. then beat Florida State to get back to the Final Four.
Final Four-I know I didn't really go out on much of a limb with these picks, as I have UConn vs. Notre Dame and Stanford vs. Baylor in the Final Four. UConn-Notre Dame will be similar to the Big East final. Notre Dame will hang in there for a while, but UConn's athleticism will be too much. The Irish are good, but the Huskies are by far the superior team. Baylor-Stanford, however, has the makings of one of the best Final Four games in years. Brittany Griner will probably be the best player on the floor in the game, but Stanford doesn't need to shut her down to win. The Cardinal are much deeper and have so many options, Baylor won't be able to stop them all. Stanford wins, but it might go to overtime.
I'd like Stanford in the National Championship Game if they weren't playing UConn. This matchup would be ultra-intriguing for several reasons. Of course Stanford ended UConn's winning streak, but Stanford also beat UConn in the 2008 Final Four, and knows it should've last year. What kind of an effect will that have on both teams? Again, Stanford's probably the only team in the country that isn't afraid of UConn, but UConn could be in the rare position where it feels like it has something to prove. Plus, do you really think Maya Moore's not going to make it her mission to go out on top? Diana Taurasi was far and away the best player in the game. She ended her career with three straight National Championships, then passed the baton to Candace Parker. Parker and Tennessee won two in a row, and it could've been three if she'd come back for her fourth year of eligibility. The torch was then passed to Maya Moore. Get my drift? Stanford comes close again, but the best player in the game wills her team to another title in her final collegiate game.
No comments:
Post a Comment