Final Four Picks

All week people have been asking me who I think is going to be in the Final Four.  I've been so busy I haven't really had time to fill out a bracket, but I do know that it's stupid to take the chalk.  With that being said, here on Tournament Eve, now is the time to reveal my Final Four picks.  Sorry, but I'm not picking all 67 games.  You have to make that tough Duke-Hampton call all on your own.  (Although I do like USC over VCU in tonight's NIT, I mean "First Four," game.)

This year's Tournament is so much more wide open than any in recent memory.  We won't have a Butler getting all the way to the Championship Game this year, but there are about eight or nine teams that could easily win the title.  As a result, handicapping this thing isn't even close to easy.  Just know that President Obama's Final Four (the four No. 1 seeds) isn't going to happen.  All four No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four only once.  With all that being said, let's go.

Let's start in the East, where taking Ohio State is the easy call.  But I'm not 100 percent sold on the Buckeyes.  They've got Kansas last year written all over them.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio State in Houston, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to George Mason either.  My upset specials in this region are Clemson over West Virginia (there's your 5-12) and Marquette over Xavier.  Even though this bracket's loaded, it would be a surprise not to see the top four seeds advance to Newark, where I think Kentucky knocks off Ohio State and North Carolina wins a great game against Syracuse.  And moving on to the Final Four...the Tar Heels.

Duke and UConn have to be pissed about getting shipped out West, where San Diego State has such a huge advantage of playing in Tucson, then Anaheim.  This one's interesting because Arizona could easily beat Duke.  Or lose to Memphis.  I think the Wildcats squeak by against Memphis, then beat Texas to move on and face Duke.  UConn won't have to worry about the five games in five days against Bucknell, but Missouri could make the Huskies work with their style of play (yes, I'm taking Missouri over Cincinnati).  I think UConn makes it to Anaheim, but that home court advantage for San Diego State is going to be too much to overcome.  In the regional final, Duke, a better team than San Diego State, proves it in a hostile environment to set up a Final Four matchup with its archrival.

Kansas isn't the No. 1 overall seed this year, which is a good thing.  But they have the best No. 2 seed (Notre Dame) in their region.  I don't see many upsets in the Southwest (did anybody know that they changed the names of the regions?).  Maybe Florida State over Texas A&M or Illinois over UNLV, but 8-9 games officially don't count as upsets.  Again I think the four top seeds move through the first week, setting up Kansas-Louisville and Purdue-Notre Dame in the Sweet 16.  Kansas will get by Louisville, but I wish Purdue and Notre Dame weren't in the same region.  They're both good enough to get to the Final Four, but only one can.  I think Notre Dame wins this one, then gets by Kansas in overtime to become the only Big East Final Four team.

The Southeast is the most confusing region.  Seriously, why is Pitt a 1 seed and why is Florida a 2 seed?  With that being said, I think this is our upset region.  Pitt goes down to the Butler-Old Dominion winner in the second round (I don't care what the NCAA says, it's still the "second" round).  I'll give you the 5-12 upset guarantee with Utah State over Kansas State, and Wisconsin will barely squeak by pesky Belmont.  A Bruins win wouldn't completely shock me, though.  And the magic runs out for St. John's, which drew a tough matchup with the Zags.  Sweet 16 in this region?  Butler, Wisconsin, Gonzaga (sorry Jimmer) and Michigan State.  In the all-Big Ten regional final, I'm tempted to take Michigan State, seeing as they make the Final Four every year regardless of seed, but I'm going to take Wisconsin.

That gives us a Final Four of North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

Duke-North Carolina IV will resemble the first matchup (a 79-73 Duke win in Durham) more than the last two (a North Carolina blowout in Chapel Hill and a Duke blowout in the ACC final).  But Duke is the defending National Champion, and having Kyrie Irving back is certainly going to help.  Of course, with this rivalry, having the better team doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Duke has the better team.  Especially with Kyrie Irving.  If he's healthy enough to be able to make a difference, Duke wins.  In the other game, Notre Dame will finally look like the team that should've won the Big East Tournament and been a No. 1 seed.  Great job by Wisconsin to get to this point, but if Notre Dame plays the way it's capable of, the Irish play for the national title.

It'll be a bunch of smart guys (or at least schools that are hard for us normal people to get into) in the National Championship Game, as Duke takes on Notre Dame.  It would be something if Notre Dame were to win a National Championship in basketball while its football team can barely figure out a way to schedule teams it can actually beat, but I don't see that happening.  Duke's way too deep.  Plus, I think they'll find a way to take both Hansbrough and Abromaitis out of the game.  Combine that with the fact Notre Dame won't really have an answer for all the different looks Duke can throw out there, and I see a repeat National Championship.  Duke was the preseason No. 1 for a reason.  They'll end the season as No. 1 as well.