In Part III of my 2011 baseball preview, it's time to wrap up the American League with a look at the AL West. This is an interesting division that includes, of course, the defending AL champion Rangers, as well as a Mariners team that might be the worst in the American League. Then there are the two California teams. Like I said, this division is interesting.
1. Oakland Athletics-After making the playoffs seemingly every year during the Moneyball era, the A's dropped off the scene for a little while as the Angels decided to remember that they play in the L.A. market and Oakland's best players were either traded away or left as free agents. But the A's are back with a vengance, and they might be the best team in this division. The reason why? Pitching. What else? Trevor Cahill headlines a very talented unheralded rotation that also includes this guy named Dallas Braden. Yes, he's the "other" guy (the one not named Halladay) who threw a perfect game last year. Plus, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez are very talented. The only knock on this rotation is that three of the four (all but Cahill) are left-handed. Closer Andrew Bailey's been an all-star in both of his major league seasons, and Oakland added Brian Fuentes (who I think is very overrated, but still) as a set-up guy. The pitching staff is going to need to carry the A's, though, because the lineup doesn't exactly scare you. They certainly don't have McGwire-Canseco lineup of the late 80s or even the Giambi-Tejada lineup of the early 2000s. In fact, their best power guy these days might be Kevin Kouzmanoff, who hit a whopping 16 home runs last season. But the Oakland Coliseum is a national park, so their lack of power is probably a good thing. With Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot and good contact guys like Mark Ellis and Josh Willingham behind him, the RBI guys (Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus) will have plenty of opportunities. Even still, the A's are going to win a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF; Mark Ellis-2B; David DeJesus-RF; Hideki Matsui-DH; Kevin Kouzmanoff-3B; Josh Willingham-LF; Kurt Suzuki-C; Daric Barton-1B; Cliff Pennington-SS
Projected Rotation: Trevor Cahill; Dallas Braden; Brett Anderson; Gio Gonzalez; Brandon McCarthy
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Texas Rangers-On paper, the Rangers are the best team in this division. Obviously. They won the pennant last year and return essentially their entire lineup, including the reigning MVP (Josh Hamilton). But the Rangers lost one key guy--Cliff Lee, which is why I give Oakland a slight edge in the AL West. There are other reasons, though. The first is Adrian Beltre. As I've said before, this signing makes absolutely no sense. He's not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, or Michael Young, and all you did by singing him was piss Young off. I'm not exactly sure where the "upgrade" is with Beltre. I'm also not sure about this proposed move of Hamilton to left with Julio Borbon taking over in center. That relegates David Murphy to pinch hitting duites, even though Borbon can't hit and Murphy can. They're also going to carry three catchers, which means they're going to look for at-bats for Mike Napoli pretty much anywhere. In other words, the Rangers went a little nuts on the spending and now have too many starting position players. This is similar to the situation Boston put itself in a few years ago when it added Casey Kotchman for no apparent reason at the trade deadline. But with all that being said, I think pitching will be the reason Oakland overtakes Texas in the AL West. The Rangers' pitching staff is good, but it's not the same without Cliff Lee. And who knows what kind of a toll all those innings in the playoffs last season will have? However, it was a wise decision to keep AL Rookie of the Year Pedro Feliz in the bullpen. Don't turn an all-star closer into a starter! Period.
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS; Ian Kinsler-2B; Josh Hamilton-LF; Adrian Beltre-3B; Nelson Cruz-RF; Michael Young-DH; Yorvit Torrealba-C; Mitch Moreland-1B; Julio Borbon-CF
Projected Rotation: C.J. Wilson; Colby Lewis; Tommy Hunter; Matt Harrison; Derek Holland
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, United States of America-After deciding they wanted to be good for a few years, the Angels suddenly started acting like the old California Angels. Seriously, why did they trade for Vernon Wells? I'm not going to say Vladimir Guerrero shifted the balance of power in the AL West, but everything changed for the Angels when he signed with Texas as a free agent before last season. Suddenly they no longer had the most intimidating lineup in this division. In fact, now it's not even close. Kendry Morales can mash and Torii Hunter is actually still good, but Bobby Abreu has turned into a singles hitter and Vernon Wells will make the Blue Jays more grateful by the day that they were actually able to somehow unload his contract. And am I the only one who thinks it's weird that they plan on having THREE Opening Day center fielders? I don't even know who this Peter Bourjos guy is. The pitching staff anchored by Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana is still above average. I like Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro is a very underrated fourth starter, but Scott Kazmir really needs to pull it together. Remember when he was the ace of Tampa Bay's staff during the Rays' World Series year? I think he's still capable of being that pitcher. Fernando Rodney's the new closer, and he's better than Brian Fuentes, the guy he's replacing.
Projected Lineup: Maicer Izturis-3B; Bobby Abreu-DH; Torii Hunter-RF; Kendry Morales-1B; Vernon Wells-LF; Howie Kendrick-2B; Jeff Mathis-C; Peter Bourjos-CF; Erick Aybar-SS
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver; Ervin Santana; Dan Haren; Joel Pineiro; Scott Kazmir
Projected Record: 83-79
4. Seattle Mariners-Let's start with the obvious positives for the Mariners. They have two great players. But Ichiro and Felix Hernandez do not a team make, and the rest of the team isn't that good. Although, it's not going to be hard for the Mariners to be better than last year's trainwreck. With Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro, Seattle has two of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and Jack Cust gives them an actual power bat to go along with Milton Bradley when he's not acting crazy (which, granted, isn't all that often). And a full year as a full-time starter should be enough to help Justin Smoak reach his potential. I saw this guy play in college, and he's ridiculous! But this is the year that Chone Figgins needs to get his head screwed on straight in order to aviod being put in that Carl Pavano to the Yankees free agent bust category. However, Felix Hernandez can still only pitch once every five days, so it looks like baseball fans are in for another long season in the Pacific Northwest. You know my feelings on Hernandez and last year's Cy Young, but it doesn't change the fact that the Mariners (like all bad teams) don't have any other starting pitchers. Their lineup isn't good enough to win games 10-8 and Brandon League is the closer, which says all you need to know about the Seattle bullpen. Still, the 2011 Mariners should be slightly better than the 2010 edition that had such high expectations before falling flat.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki-RF; Chone Figgins-3B; Jack Cust-DH; Milton Bradley-LF; Justin Smoak-1B; Franklin Gutierrez-CF; Brendan Ryan-SS; Miguel Olivo-C; Jack Wilson-2B
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez; Erik Bedard; Jason Vargas; Doug Fister; Michael Pineda
Projected Record: 66-96
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