As promised, my pick to win the NL Central is a surprise. This is probably the tightest division in baseball, and the top four teams might be separated by only a couple of games. In a close division race, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of three different teams win it. After their unexpected division title last season, Cincinnati is a popular pick to repeat, but for some reason I'm not entirely sold on the Reds. And Adam Wainwright's injury probably knocks the Cardinals out of contention, which leaves us with one team...
1. Milwaukee Brewers-Yes, the Brewers are my pick to win the NL Central. All offseason, I was sitting there thinking, "The Brewers might actually be pretty good this year." And in a division without a dominant team, I think they're the best of the lot. Prince Fielder is a free agent at the end of the season, which means it's pretty much now or never for Milwaukee. He's really good. So is Ryan Braun. I'm not sure how Braun starts the All-Star Game every year, but there's no denying he can hit. Joining them in the heart of the lineup are Corey Hart and Casey McGehee. Hart's been an all-star, and McGehee can flat hit. Add in Rickie Weeks, Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betancourt and you get a pretty decent lineup. They've got the guys who can get on base ahead of Fielder, Braun and Hart, who can all crush the ball. Plus, they added Nyjer Morgan as a backup outfielder, which was a great move. But the Brewers don't really need to score that many runs. They've upgraded their pitching significantly, which is why I like them in this division. Zack Greinke looked crazy for choosing Milwaukee as a free agent destination, but the Brewers have three other quality starters behind him. Shaun Marcum held his own in the AL East. Now we get to see how good he really can be when he doesn't have to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays regularly. Yovani Gallardo had 14 wins last season and Randy Wolf provides a valuable veteran presence. I'm not kidding. The Brewers are going to be good.
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF; Yuniesky Betancourt-SS; Prince Fielder-1B; Ryan Braun-LF; Corey Hart-RF; Casey McGehee-3B; Rickie Weeks-2B; Jonathan Lucroy-C
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke (starting season on DL); Shaun Marcum; Yovani Gallardo; Randy Wolf; Chris Narveson; Sergio Mitre
Projected Record: 88-74
2. Cincinnati Reds-As great as it was, the Reds' success last season was so completely random that I'm going to need proof it can happen again. However, personnel-wise, they're capable. Cincinnati returns pretty much its entire team. The only starter who's gone is shortstop Orlando Cabrera, but they replaced him with World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Renteria may be 58 years old, but he still represents an upgrade over Cabrera. Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen were all-stars last year, and everyone knows the story with Joey Votto. But that's exactly why I'm not sure Cincinnati can repeat as division champions. Votto's going to put up his Votto-like numbers, but will Rolen and Phillips put up all-star numbers again? I'm not sure. Reality set in against the Phillies in the Division Series and we all saw what happened. Even still, the Reds have the best lineup in the NL Central, and they're going to score a bunch of runs. The top of the rotation consists of three quality arms in Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Cueto will start the season on the DL (and so will No. 4 starter Homer Bailey), but the arms behind them (Mike Leake and Travis Wood) can certainly hold their own in his absence. The very good Reds bullpen is anchored by all-star closer Francisco Cordero, and don't forget about Aroldis Chapman. Cincinnati caught lightning in a bottle last season. I'm not saying it can't happen again. I'm just not positive it will.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Phillips-2B; Edgar Renteria-SS; Joey Votto-1B; Scott Rolen-3B; Jay Bruce-RF; Drew Stubbs-CF; Johnny Gomes-LF; Ramon Hernandez-C
Projected Rotation: Bronson Arroyo; Edinson Volquez; Johnny Cueto (starting season on DL); Homer Bailey (starting season on DL); Travis Wood; Mike Leake
Projected Record: 87-75
3. St. Louis Cardinals-As tempted as I was to put the Cubs in front of the Cardinals, I simply couldn't do it. In what's possibly Albert's last season in St. Louis (it's not), the Cardinals went from potential division favorites to likely also-rans all because of one guy--Adam Wainwright. Wainwright's injury gives the Cardinals exactly one established starting pitcher, and it's not exactly like Chris Carpenter is the most durable guy in the world. Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse are good, but they won't exactly make up for the loss of Wainwright. The Cardinals are somewhat offensively challenged, but at least they have Albert. Even in his bad years, Albert puts up Pujols-like numbers. That's a good thing, becuse the Cardinals don't really have much besides him. Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina are still all-star caliber players, but their big off-season addition was Lance Berkman to play right field, and Berkman has gotten old in a hurry in the past couple years. Tony LaRussa always manages to figure out something and keeps the Cardinals competitive even when people think they aren't going to be. While they're not the best team in the division by a long shot entering the season, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cardinals find a way to win the NL Central. When you have the best player in the game, the supporting cast only needs to be good. And Albert's supporting cast is better than the ones Barry Bonds had in San Francisco, and one of those Giants teams went to the World Series.
Projected Lineup: Colby Rasmus-CF; Skip Schumaker-2B; Albert Pujols-1B; Matt Holliday-LF; Lance Berkman-RF; Ryan Theriot-SS; Yadier Molina-C; David Freese-3B
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter; Jake Westbrook; Jaime Garcia; Kyle Lohse; Kyle McClellan
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Chicago Cubs-Just like the Orioles started to resemble a Major League franchise once Buck Showalter took over last season, the same thing happened with the Cubs and Mike Quade. There are two main differences between the Cubs and the Orioles, though. The Cubs are a lot more talented, and the Cubs don't play in the AL East. If they ever put everything together, the Cubs could win 100 games and run away with this division. As it is, 85 wins will probably be enough to be competitive. They still have to pay the ridiculous contracts of Kosuke Fukudome, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez (who at least is actually still good), but they play in Chicago so it's not like they don't have the money to do that. And those three guys are less useless than the guys the Mets are stuck paying, which is a plus. Carlos Pena's a good pickup. So is Blake DeWitt. Add them to a lineup that already features Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto, as well as the aforementioned trio, and the Cubs should be able to score plenty of runs this season. Matt Garza's a great addition at the front of the rotation to create a nice 1-2 punch with Ryan Dempster. I'm not really sure why Carlos Zambrano's still on the team, but if he stays not crazy, he could return to his all-star form of a couple years ago. Kerry Wood's back to keep Carlos Marmol company in the bullpen, which gives the Cubs as good a late inning tandem as any team in the National League. They could contend, but they're the Cubs. They won't.
Projected Lineup: Alfonso Soriano-LF; Starlin Castro-SS; Carlos Pena-1B; Aramis Ramirez-3B; Marlon Byrd-CF; Kosuke Fukudome-RF; Geovany Soto-C; Blake DeWitt-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Garza; Ryan Dempster; Carlos Zambrano; Randy Wells; Andrew Cashner
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Houston Astros-Not only are the Astros bad, they're boring. The only two players on this team that are even worth the price of admission are Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Carlos Lee makes more than the rest of the team even though he hasn't been good in about five years. Other than that, I'm not even sure who plays for the Houston Astros. I think they went out and good Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, but those guys are backups on any other team, and frankly I'm not sure how much they're going to help. Houston's not going to hit. It's that simple. As for the pitching staff, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez aren't Mike Scott and Nolan Ryan. Closer Brandon Lyon is decent, but good closers are irrelevant on bad teams. This team is a far cry from the Astros squads that were competitive every year from the mid-90s to the mid-00s. If not for the good fortune of being in the same division as the Pirates, the Astros would be destined for last place. That's really about all I've got about Houston. Sorry. Just know they're not going to be very good.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF; Clint Barmes-SS; Hunter Pence-RF; Carlos Lee-LF; Chris Johnson-3B; Brett Wallace-1B; Bill Hall-2B; Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Brett Myers; Wandy Rodriguez; J.A. Happ; Bud Norris; Nelson Figueroa
Projected Record: 68-94
6. Pittsburgh Pirates-Quick, name a member of the Pirates other than Andrew McCutchen. Can't do it, can you? Therein lies the problem with baseball's most sorry team. At least they're trying. Hiring Clint Hurdle as manager was a giant step forward, but the player personnel is Pittsburgh's real problem. I really don't understand how a team that's continually this bad (and thus continues to get really high draft picks) doesn't have any minor league talent that can contribute at the major league level. The guys they have are decent, but you've never heard of any of them. The one free agent they actually managed to convince to come to Pittsburgh was Lyle Overbay, who wore out his welcome in Toronto, but is a good veteran guy to have on this team. The rotation is anchored by ex-Padre Kevin Correia, who I didn't even realize was on the Pirates now. And I think Paul Maholm will eventually be a valuable starter for whatever team he goes to next. But the bottom line is that it'll take a miracle for Pittsburgh to avoid a third straight 100-loss season. At least they play in a nice ballpark. And Albert Pujols comes to visit nine times a year. Don't worry Pittsburgh faithful, if the lockout is settled in time, it's only five months until the first Steelers game.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-CF; Neil Walker-2B; Garrett Jones-RF; Lyle Overbay-1B; Pedro Alvarez-3B; Jose Tabata-LF; Ronny Cedeno-SS; Chris Snyder-C
Projected Rotation: Kevin Correia; Paul Maholm; Ross Ohlendorf; Charlie Morton; James McDonald
Projected Record: 59-103
Our next installment will be the sixth and final part of the 2011 baseball preview, a look at the NL West.
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