With Opening Day right around the corner (Opening Day should be on a Monday, not a Thursday, but that's a blog for another day), it's time to conclude our 10-day, six-blog journey that has been my 2011 baseball preview. Some might even say that I'm saving the best for last, since the defending World Champions call the NL West home. While this is the Giants' division to lose, I don't think they'll run away with the NL West title. But that doesn't mean they'll be challenged until the final day of the season again, either.
1. San Francisco Giants-Somewhat unexpectedly, the Giants came out of nowhere last season to win their first World Series title since moving to California in 1958. But when they decided to make the transition from Barry Bonds' team to one built on awesome young pitching, you kind of saw that coming eventually. The thing that made their 2010 World Series championship so wonderful, though, was that outside of the pitching staff, they don't really have many stars. Buster Posey is going to be, but did anybody really expect him to be THAT good as a rookie? Aubrey Huff was picked up off the scrap heap and ended up an MVP candidate and a World Champion. The Giants were wise to re-sign him as quickly as they possibly could this offseason. Only two World Series starters don't return. One is World Series MVP Edgar Renteria, but they replaced him with Miguel Tejada, who's basically the same player defensively and hits for a little more power. Jose Uribe is also gone, which gives the third base job back to the guy with the best nickname in baseball--"Kung Fu Panda" Pablo Sandoval, who was relegated to pinch-hitting duty in the playoffs and had a grand total of three at-bats in the World Series. Everyone else is back, and super-utility guy Mark DeRosa returns from injury. He played so sporadically last season that DeRosa's return is just like adding him as a free agent. But the pitching staff remains the bread and butter of this team. San Francisco has the only staff in the National League that can go toe-to-toe with the Phillies, as the proved in the NLCS. Tim Lincecum is still in need of a haircut, but it doesn't change the fact he's a ridiculous pitcher. Then throw in Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. Oh yeah, and Barry Zito's the FIFTH starter! Closer Brian Wilson and his ridiculos black beard will start the season on the DL, but they should be able to get by without him for a little while. The Giants can weather injuries to one or two position players, but an injury to one of those starters (especially Lincecum, who's an arm injury waiting to happen, or Cain) is the only thing that can derail this train on its way back to the playoffs.
Projected Lineup: Andres Torres-CF; Freddy Sanchez-2B; Buster Posey-C; Aubrey Huff-1B; Pat Burrell-LF; Miguel Tejada-SS; Cody Ross-RF; Pablo Sandoval-3B
Projected Rotation: Tim Lincecum; Matt Cain; Madison Bumgarner; Jonathan Sanchez; Barry Zito
Projected Record: 97-65
2. Colorado Rockies-In a tight call over the Dodgers, I'm picking the Rockies to finish second in the NL West. I think there's just too much talent in Colorado. Let's start with Carlos Gonzalez, who came virtually out of nowhere in the second half of last season to join Albert and Joey Votto in the MVP conversation. Now everybody knows about CarGo. I just wish those of us outside of the Mountain Time Zone would get the opportunity to see him more often. Joining him in the outfield is supremely talented center fielder Dexter Fowler. With CarGo, Fower and all-star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who's on the verge of becoming a superstar, anchoring the lineup, runs aren't going to be hard to come by in Colorado (it's not like they were anyway, but they won't need the thin air to score). Even though he's pushing 40, Todd Helton, the Rockies' all-time greatest player, still puts up consistent numbers, and this year they'll put another rocking chair in the locker room for new acquision Ty Wigginton (who was an all-star last season in Baltimore) to occupy. As always, the Rockies' Achilles heel might be their pitching staff. Ubaldo Jimenez was dominant in the first half of last season and started the All-Star Game before doing absolutely nothing in the second half. To be the ace of a staff, you need to pitch like it for six months, not three. The rest of the rotation is questionable. However, Huston Street is one of the best closers in the National League, and he anchors a pretty solid bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF; Jose Lopez-2B; Carlos Gonzalez-LF; Todd Helton-1B; Troy Tulowitzki-SS; Seth Smith-RF; Chris Iannetta-C; Ian Stewart-3B
Projected Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez; Jorge De La Rosa; Aaron Cook; Jhoulys Chacin; Jason Hammel
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Los Angeles Dodgers-Donnie Baseball, you were a great Yankee. Now we get to see if you can manage. Replacing Joe Torre is quite a task (just ask Joe Girardi), but Torre couldn't win with better Dodgers teams than this one, so how much can really be expected from Mattingly? It's not that the Dodgers are bad. The Giants are just better. And this crap with the McCourts' divorce is going to drag the franchise down for as long as it continues. James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are all in their prime, but the guys around them are all role players. Rafael Furcal and Juan Uribe are solid up the middle, but I'm not sure about Uribe at second base and Furcal seems to only play well when he wants to. I like the addition of Rod Barajas (I don't even know who the Dodgers' catcher was last season), but I'm not sure about the signing of Marcus Thames or the plan to start him in left field. Thames was good as the Yankees' primary right-handed pinch hitter last season, and I think that's the role he's best suited to. The guys they signed (Jay Gibbons, Tony Gwynn Jr., Dioner Navarro) to be pinch hitters are exactly that. Pinch hitters. However, the Dodgers have a very solid starting rotation, which is the second-best in this division. It's a nice mix of young guys (Clayton Kershaw, Clay Billingsley) and veterans (Ted Lilly, Jon Garland) with a Japanese guy (Hiroki Kuroda) thrown in. Jonathan Broxton is one of the best closers in baseball.
Projected Lineup: Rafael Furcal-SS; Juan Uribe-2B; Andre Ethier-RF; James Loney-1B; Matt Kemp-CF; Marcus Thames-LF; Casey Blake-3B; Rod Barajas-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw; Clay Billingsley; Ted Lilly; Hiroki Kuroda; Jon Garland
Projected Record: 88-74
4. San Diego Padres-I'm not sure how the Padres almost won this division last season. Their team consisted of one player, Adrian Gonzalez, who's since been traded to Boston. With Gonzalez gone, their star power consists of former all-stars Ryan Ludwick and Orlando Hudson, who don't exactly excite you. San Diego was the landing place of former Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett, an actual above-average Major League player in his prime. But for a team that couldn't score even when it had an all-star first baseman, I'm not sure how much the addition of a singles-hitting middle infielder is going to help. However, Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, and pitching is how San Diego was actually able to stay in contention last season (I think). They used to have Jake Peavy. He's on the White Sox now. Nowadays, the San Diego pitching staff is anchored by the likes of Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard. Mat Latos is good, but he'll start the season on the DL. A decent bullpen featuring Luke Gregerson and Chad Qualls bridges the gap between the starters and all-star closer Heath Bell, who needs to convert every save opportunity he gets, because there might not be that many. Teams that are randomly good have a tendency to fall back closer to where they belong the following season. Expect that to happen with the 2011 Padres. San Diego managed to stay in the race until September last year. That won't happen again.
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin-CF; Jason Bartlett-SS; Ryan Ludwick-LF; Brad Hawpe-1B; Will Venable-RF; Chase Headley-3B; Orlando Hudson-2B; Nick Hundley-C
Projected Rotation: Mat Latos; Tim Stauffer; Clayton Richard; Aaron Harang; Dustin Moseley
Projected Record: 71-91
5. Arizona Diamondbacks-The Diamondbacks are hosting the All-Star Game this season, which means their fans will get to see one game featuring actual major league stars this season. As for the other 81 games at Chase Field (or whatever it's called now), different story. Chris Young and Justin Upton might as well be Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence (considering the Diamondbacks and Astros have basically the same uniforms, they could be interchangable and I don't think anybody would notice). They're legitimate potential stars stuck on a team that's making no effort to win. Arizona doesn't have a terrible lineup, and the team's strikeout total should drop by about half now that Mark Reynolds is gone, but they have no pitching. Armando Galarraga, he of the almost-perfect game, is now a Diamondback, but that's about it for the rotation. The rest of them are either castoffs from good teams (Ian Kennedy-Yankees, Joe Saunders-Angels) or guys you've never heard of (Daniel Hudson, Barry Enright). The closer is J.J. Putz, who was good as the Mariners closer a couple of years ago before going to the Mets as a setup guy and ending up like pretty much anybody who signs with the Mets as a free agent. It's the 10th anniversary of their 2001 World Championship, which means the best team in Diamondbacks history will be on the field at Chase Field at some point this season. Except those guys are all retired, and they'll only be there for one game. If you get Diamondbacks season tickets, you'll get to be there for that reunion. And you'll probably get to go to the All-Star Game, too. Those might be the only reasons to buy Diamondbacks season tickets.
Projected Lineup: Chris Young-CF; Kelly Johnson-2B; Stephen Drew-SS; Russell Branyan-1B; Justin Upton-RF; Melvin Mora-3B; Miguel Montero-C; Gerardo Parra-LF
Projected Rotation: Ian Kennedy; Daniel Hudson; Joe Saunders; Barry Enright; Armando Galarraga
Projected Record: 63-99
So there you have it, all six divisions have been broken down. In the playoffs, I'm taking the Red Sox over the A's and the Yankees over the Tigers in the ALDS, and the Red Sox over the Yankees in the ALCS. In the National League, I'm going Phillies over Brewers, Giants over Braves and Giants over Phillies in the NLCS rematch. And as much as it pains me to say it, I'm picking the Red Sox over the Giants in the 2011 World Series. But that's not until October. All that matters now is that it's baseball season. Play Ball!
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