Today in Part II of the 2011 baseball preview, we'll take a look at the AL Central. Like the AL East, this division is a race between three really good teams, with two not-so-good teams bringing up the rear. And I think that three-team race between the Tigers, White Sox and Twins will last all season.
1. Detroit Tigers-I'm not sure how the Tigers haven't won this division yet. Based on talent, they're the best team in the AL Central. And the addition of Victor Martinez is what gives Detroit the narrow edge over Minnesota and the White Sox in this division. This team had Johnny Damon last year, but the emergence of Brennan Boesch made him expendable. They also have Carlos Guillen, Mr. Super-Utility himself (the guy who founded the position before it was forced upon Michael Young). Guillen can DH (which I think he'll do on Opening Day) or play any infield position. That's good, considering they've got rookie Will Rhymes penciled in at second and who knows what's going on with Miguel Cabrera? But with Martinez, a not crazy Cabrera and a healthy Magglio Ordonez, Detroit's lineup is dangerous. And leadoff hitter Austin Jackson should be a lot better this year than he was last season, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. They don't have a fifth starter, but few teams do. And the front of Detroit's rotation--Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny--is as good as any in the American League. Plus, closer Jose Valverde was an all-star last season. Of course, they've become notorious for falling apart down the stretch, which can't happen in this division. But with their talent and Jim Leyland calling the shots, I think the Tigers are the team to beat in the AL Central.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF; Carlos Guillen-DH; Victor Martinez-C; Miguel Cabrera-1B; Magglio Ordonez-RF; Jhonny Peralta-SS; Brennan Boesch-LF; Brandon Inge-3B; Will Rhymes-2B
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander; Rick Porcello; Brad Penny; Max Scherzer; Phil Coke
Projected Record: 91-71
2. Minnesota Twins-On paper, there's not much separating the Tigers and the Twins. The Twins have won this division in each of the last two years, and they have the best all-around player in the American League in Joe Mauer. Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau are one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball, but how healthy is Morneau after missing the second half of last season with a concussion? But keep in mind, Minnesota went on that incredible second half tear without him last year. A healthy Morneau and another moster year from future Hall of Fame DH Jim Thome could bring more playoff losses to the Yankees to Target Field. But it could also mean too much of a good thing, since Morneau and Thome both being in the lineup means either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel has to sit. Although, playing Cuddyer at third is potentially a way around that. The Twins' rotation isn't great, but it's good enough. But they have to be weary of Francisco Liriano's vulnerability to injury and can't expect the same numbers out of Carl Pavano that they got in 2010. The bullpen gets back closer Joe Nathan, who they amazingly didn't really miss that much. Like I said, Detroit and Minnesota are incredibly even. But the Tigers get the slight edge because their rotation is slightly better.
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF; Tsuyoshi Nishioka-2B; Joe Mauer-C; Justin Morneau-1B; Jim Thome-DH; Michael Cuddyer-RF; Delmon Young-LF; Danny Valencia-3B; Alexi Casilla-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano; Carl Pavano; Nick Blackburn; Brian Duensing; Scott Baker
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Chicago White Sox-The White Sox are slightly less good than the Tigers and Twins, which makes them the third best team in this division. Their big offseason is Adam Dunn, who was a DH stuck in the National League for a long time. Now that he's in the AL like he should be, Dunn could have an even more ridiculous year than he'd been having when nobody noticed in Washington. Plus, he can share first base duties with Paul Konerko, which could definitely help Konerko's production. But the White Sox' big problem is that they're old. Juan Pierre is their leadoff hitter and A.J. Pierzynski is their starting catcher. For the White Sox to contend, one of the two has to have a big year. Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez have potential, but Alex Rios is probably the only poistion player in this lineup other than Dunn who's actually in his prime. But the White Sox will be about pitching as long as they have Mark Buehrle (which might only be until July). Buehrle's a stud and a workhorse. When your best player is a starting pitcher, that's both a good thing and a bad thing. A healthy Jake Peavy gives the White Sox a nice 1-2 punch, but Peavy got hurt again the other day and, sadly, might never again be the same pitcher who was the ace of the Padres' staff. Losing Bobby Jenks hurts. Matt Thornton was an all-star set up guy last season, but won't be an all-star closer.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF; Gordon Beckham-2B; Paul Konerko-1B; Adam Dunn-DH; Carlos Quentin-RF; Alex Rios-CF; A.J. Pierzynski-C; Mark Teahen-3B; Alexei Ramirez-3B
Projected Rotation: Mark Buehrle; Jake Peavy; Edwin Jackson; Gavin Floyd; John Danks
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Kansas City Royals-In the battle for last place in the AL Central, the Royals are slightly less bad than the Indians. Based on the talent they have in the minor leagues, Kansas City looks to be maybe three years away from being the 2008 Rays. But let's keep things real. Most of the major league talent consists of players that other teams decided weren't good enough. All of the castaways on this Island of Misfit Toys are established major leaguers, but it's not like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are headed to Cooperstown. Still, Kansas City is talented enough to annoy the good teams. Yes Jason Kendall is 62 years old, but Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are very good and would be much more appreciated if they played somewhere else. The lineup's not really the problem, though. Like all teams that aren't quite at the top level, they don't have the pitching. Zack Greinke left for the Brewers as a free agent, and Gil Meche isn't a Royal anymore either, which means Luke Hochevar will be the Opening Day starter. Joakim Soria is a very good closer, but the value of a good closer is lost when he only gets the opportunity to save two games a week.
Projected Lineup: Melky Cabrera-CF; Alcides Escobar-SS; Billy Butler-DH; Alex Gordon-LF; Kila Ka'aihue-1B; Jeff Francoeur-RF; Wilson Betemit-3B; Jason Kendall-C; Mike Aviles-2B
Projected Rotation: Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies; Bruce Chen; Vin Mazzaro
Projected Record: 68-94
5. Cleveland Indians-They're talking about making another Major League, which the Indians would probably embrace, since the first time that movie came out, Cleveland became good. This is a far cry from the team that was in the playoffs every year in the late '90s and, as recently as 2007, was in Game 7 of the ALCS. Like all teams, there are some good players in Cleveland, but this isn't the 1995 World Series team that had Manny Ramirez batting seventh. Grady Sizemore is working his way back, and his health is a key. So is Shin-Soo Choo's. Choo would've been the Indians' all-star last year until he got hurt just before the all-star break. They still have Travis Hafner, who either hits the ball 400 feet or strikes out every time he comes up, and I really like the young talent (Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana), but let's call a spade a spade. The Indians aren't very good. Plus, they evidently had a space on the DL that they needed to fill, so they signed Nick Johnson. Other than Fausto Carmona, the Indians pitching staff consists of a bunch of guys you've never heard of.
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF; Orlando Cabrera-2B; Travis Hafner-DH; Shin-Soo Choo-LF; Matt LaPorta-1B; Asdrubal Cabrera-SS; Austin Kearns-LF; Carlos Santana-C; Jason Donald-3B
Projected Rotation: Fausto Carmona; Justin Masterson; Mitch Talbot; Carlos Carrasco; Josh Tomlin
Projected Record: 61-101
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