I'm done with my division-by-division preview of the American League, so now it's time to move on to the Senior Circuit. Now, as a Yankees fan, I don't watch the National League anywhere near as much as I watch the AL. But that doesn't mean I don't know what's going on in the NL. And it certainly doesn't mean that I don't feel qualified doing an NL East preview. With that in mind, here we go:
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Yes, this is an easy one. The Phillies have been the best team in this division, if not the entire National League, for the last few years, and it would be really surprising if that changed this season. They already had one of the best starting rotations in the National League, then added Cliff Lee to give them FOUR! guys who could be No. 1 starters (and have been at some point). Seriously, this is the only team in baseball that can get away with Lee not starting on Opening Day, but when you have Roy Halladay, picking an Opening Day starter isn't hard. Just in case they actually need it, the Phillies have a stacked bullpen, too. Closer Brad Lidge is hurt, but they don't lose anything with Ryan Madson closing, and former Rays closer Danys Baez has joined the fray. The lineup is so good that they let Jayson Werth walk away as a free agent and handed the right field job to rookie Domonic Brown, who's an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Chase Utley is going to start the season on the DL, so they signed former Mets space taker-upper Luis Castillo (who's 60 percent there on his journey through the NL East) to hold his place until he comes back. The only potential flaw I see in this lineup (and it's a small one) is the lack of right-handed hitters. Rollins and Victorio are switch-hitters, but the three main power guys (Howard, Utley, Ibanez) are all lefties, which means you can bring in a lefty out of the bullpen to knock out all three of them, which the Giants did in the NLCS last year. Even still, that flaw is minor. The Phillies were horrible in the beginning of the season last year and still ended up winning 97 games. I'd be surprised if they don't win 100 this year.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS; Placido Polanco-3B; Chase Utley-2B; Ryan Howard-1B; Raul Ibanez-LF; Shane Victorino-CF; Domonic Brown-RF; Carlos Ruiz-C
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay; Cliff Lee; Cole Hamels; Roy Oswalt; Joe Blanton
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Atlanta Braves-The Braves won the wild card last season, sending Bobby Cox out in style. A new manager shouldn't be the story for a team going into a new season, but when the guy he's replacing was the manager for 20 years, it can't not be a story. The new guy in charge is Fredi Gonzalez, who I'm pretty sure is a Bobby Cox clone, which means things won't really change that much in Atlanta. Derrek Lee left as a free agent, but the Braves are replacing him at first base with rookie Freedie Freeman. But considering how well Jason Heyward did last season, it's not really much of a risk to put Freeman there. (If you haven't yet, check out the SI article on Heyward and Freeman. It's fantastic.) The best move they made in the offseason was the addition of Dan Uggla at second base, then quickly locking him up to a long-term deal. That frees up Martin Prado to move to left field, where he'll replace Melky Cabrera, who didn't work out that well in Atlanta. Super-utility guy Omar Infante is gone, which could create problems when Chipper's yearly injury pops up. But Chipper Jones, who was on his retirement tour when he tore his ACL last season, deserves to go out on top. The pitching staff anchored by Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe can certainly help that happen. The Braves don't have enough to get past the Phillies, but another wild card berth could certainly be in the cards.
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-CF; Martin Prado-LF; Jason Heyward-RF; Chipper Jones-3B; Dan Uggla-2B; Brian McCann-C; Freddie Freeman-1B; Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson; Tommy Hanson; Derek Lowe; Jair Jurrjens; Brandon Beachy
Projected Record: 92-70 (Wild Card)
3. Florida Marlins-In their final year as the "Florida" Marlins, their lack of dysfunction gives them a slight edge over the Mets for third place. Yes, they lost Uggla, their second-best player, but their best player is still Hanley Ramirez. I'm not sure anybody outside Miami (or even that many people in Miami) actually knows how good Hanley Ramirez is, but he's a consistent .300-20-75 guy (and that RBI total would be higher if there were actually other guys in the Marlins lineup for him to drive in). Those other guys are coming, though. Chris Coghlan was the Rookie of the Year two years ago, Gaby Sanchez actually got two first-place votes in Rookie of the Year voting last season (why I don't know), and Mike Stanton has the potential to be a perennial all-star. They replaced Uggla with Infante, who's not as good, but they also brought in all-star catcher John Buck, which was a good move. Josh Johnson is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball and Ricky Nolasco is a solid No. 2 starter. But the rest of the rotation behind them is kind of shaky. Javy Vazquez isn't a Yankee anymore (Bye!), but he doesn't suck when he's in the National League, so this might be a steal. Anibal Sanchez, the No. 4 starter, has thrown a no-hitter in his career, but he's just that, a No. 4 starter. The closer is Leo Nunez, who I've never heard of. The Marlins have tried to be good twice in their history, and they won the World Series both times. They don't plan on being good this season, but when they finally get out of that gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls next year, look out!
Projected Lineup: Chris Coghlan-CF; Omar Infante-2B; Hanley Ramirez-SS; Gaby Sanchez-1B; John Buck-C; Mike Stanton-RF; Logan Morrison-LF; Wes Helms-3B
Projected Rotation: Josh Johnson; Ricky Nolasco; Javy Vazquez; Anibal Sanchez; Chris Volstad
Projected Record: 80-82
4. New York Mets-Ah, our beloved New York Mess. The team that brings a new meaning to the word "dysfunction." I'll give them credit for this--they're so unintentionally hilarious that they can't stay off the back page of the papers, which is tough to do in New York. Seriously, they're like driving by a car accident or watching a Charlie Sheen webcast. You don't really want to see it, but you just can't look away. Any-hoo, Bernie Madoff's investors have been getting what they paid for in the likes of Ollie Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran, two of whom are now gone. Problem is, Beltran's still there. And it's not like they can trade him, so Mets fans will be subjected to one more year of him before they can finally say good riddance. Beltran's moving to right this year "for the good of the team," but what's really good for the team would be doing what they did with the other two--continue paying him to be useless while he plays for somebody else. But the Mets' best players are really good. How does a team with the likes of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Ike Davis continue to not win? Seriously. Josh Thole isn't good enough to be a starting catcher and, as useless as he was, Castillo at least stood there at second base. I don't really know who they plan on having do that now. But the Mets' real problem is that they only have one starter, who happens to be out until at least June. Mike Pelfrey should've been an all-star last season, but R.A. Dickey's a one-year wonder and I'm not really sure about Chris Young and Chris Capuano's ability to stay both healthy and good. The bullpen is anchored by Francisco Rodriguez. Need I say more?
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS; Angel Pagan-CF; Carlos Beltran-RF; David Wright-3B; Jason Bay-LF; Ike Davis-1B; Brad Emaus-2B; Josh Thole-C
Projected Rotation: (Johan Santana doesn't return until June) Mike Pelfrey; Jonathan Neise; R.A. Dickey; Chris Young; Chris Capuano
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Washington Nationals-Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John surgery last year, so stop polishing his plaque in Cooperstown. Without him this year, the Nationals aren't going to be good (although, in fairness, they wouldn't be very good with him either). But I give them credit for trying. No, Jayson isn't Werth the money they're giving him, but they at least went out and got a big-name free agent. Add him to Ryan Zimmerman and Pudge Rodriguez (Bryce Harper isn't there just yet), and the Nationals actually have a formidable middle of the lineup. Plus, they added Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel, too. Both of those guys could help this team. However, trading Nyjer Morgan seriously limits Washington's depth, which wasn't that great to begin with. The Strasburg-less rotation is anchored by Livan Hernandez, who wears No. 61 because he's 61 years old. Hernandez is the franchise's last remaining link to their time as the Montreal Expos, and I think that nostalgic feeling might be the only reason why they keep him around. John Lannan has been a solid member of this rotation for a couple years and Jordan Zimmermann is the second best Zimmerman(n) on the team. Tom Gorzelanny was a Pirate, and now he's a National. This guy can't catch a break! For his sake, I hope Chien-Ming Wang is able to finally get healthy and regain the form from his Yankee days, but sadly, I'm not sure that's ever going to happen. I don't think Drew Storen is ready to be a major league closer, but in Washington, where there's going to be a maximum of three save opportunities a week, that might not matter. For years, Senators fans had a saying, "First In War, First In Peace, Last In the American League." Nationals fans can keep the saying and just change the league, 'cause it's the same old story.
Projected Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS; Danny Espinosa-2B; Jayson Werth-RF; Ryan Zimmerman-3B; Adam LaRoche-1B; Ivan Rodriguez-C; Rick Ankiel-CF; Roger Bernadina-LF
Projected Rotation: John Lannan; Livan Hernandez; Jordan Zimmermann; Jason Marquis; Tom Gorzelanny
Projected Record: 68-94
So there you have it. Probably similar to everybody else's NL East projections. I promise you, though, our next installment, the NL Central, will have some surprises.
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