Working Russia Back In

Now that the IOC has lifted its ban on Russia, sporting federations are starting to do the same.  Slowly but surely, Russian athletes and teams are being incorporated back into the international fold.  The latest to welcome Russia back is the IIHF, which made the announcement this week at the World Championships.  It won't be right away, though.  Mainly because it's too late to work the Russian team into 2026-27 events.  But at the 2028 IIHF World Championships, we should probably expect to see the Russians there.

Throughout its suspension, Russia has continued receiving IIHF ranking points.  Why they didn't just freeze their points, I don't know (seeing as that would've made the most sense), but the point is they've gotten the points corresponding to what their ranking would be at every World Championships and Olympics since the suspension began.  While that's an absurd way of doing it, the number of points Russia has "accumulated" over the past five years are enough for them to be ranked No. 2 in the world.  When they officially reenter the rankings, I'd assume they'll be no lower than fourth.

Even though Russia's eligibility is being restored, the IIHF needs to figure out how to reincorporate them into the World Championships.  That's why it won't happen until 2028.  Because bringing them back isn't as simple as it sounds.  It impacts so many other nations that have already qualified for the 2027 tournament.  By delaying Russian readmittance until the 2028 World Championships, they're giving themselves a chance to sort out those logistics and make the necessary adjustments.

Russia's men's team will obviously immediately go back to the top level of the World Championships.  That's a necessary condition that I can't see Russia or the IIHF not accepting.  Not only is the team clearly one of the 16 best in the world, they were in the top level before their suspension.  Had they been relegated because of performance, that would be one thing.  But making them rise back up through the lower levels, where they'd dominate nations that have nowhere near the same talent level, wouldn't make any sense or be fair for anybody.

So, there's no question that they'll end up back in the main World Championships in 2028.  The question is how.  Expanding the field is one possible solution, but they're already at 16 teams and I doubt the IIHF would want to go beyond that.  It's also worth noting that whatever applies to Russia also needs to apply to Belarus.  While not one of the top teams like Russia is, Belarus was also playing at the main World Championships when they were suspended.  So, the same logic has to apply.  If Russia's going right back where they were, Belarus needs to as well.  Which actually would make things a little easier.

At the World Championships, the 16 teams are split into two groups of eight, with the bottom team in each group relegated and replaced by the top two countries in the second-level tournament.  One possible scenario could've been not having anybody promoted in 2027 and simply having Russia and Belarus replace the two relegated teams.  However, that's really not possible for 2027-28 because France, which is currently in that second tier, is hosting in 2028.  Which means the French have to be promoted for the 2028 tournament.  

Theoretically, they could do France and Russia as the promoted teams to replace those that are relegated, but what happens if France doesn't win the Division I-A tournament?  How could you justify taking only them and not the team that earned its way back to the top level by winning the tournament?  And what about Belarus?  Where do they go?  So, while that may sound like it could work in theory, in actuality, it wouldn't.  That option is out, then.

Another option, one that I think could work and may very well end up being what they do, would be to have the bottom two teams in each group relegated.  Those four teams would be replaced in 2028 by France and another team promoted from Division I-A, as well as Russia and Belarus.  That would (A) keep the top level at 16 teams, (B) keep the same promotion from Division I-A and (C) get Russia and Belarus back in with the least disruption to the main tournament.  It would create a trickle-down situation

No matter how they do it, when Russia and Belarus are back in IIHF tournaments, that's two additional teams to incorporate.  That's an obvious fact, but it complicates the math.  There are 16 teams at the top level, but each of the lower-level tournaments only feature six teams.  They'll have to readjust that in 2028, even if it's just for the one year.  Whether it's eight teams instead of six in Division I-A or seven in both Division I-A and Division I-B, it affects the promotion & relegation regardless.

The easiest thing might be to have seven teams in both levels of Division I for at least 2028, if not every year moving forward (that would account for the top 30 teams in the world).  Using the method I suggested, the four relegated teams would go into Division I-A with the three countries that finished third-fifth in 2027.  The last-place team from 2027 would still be relegated to Division I-B, but no one would be promoted to Division I-A.  Then, they could adjust everything accordingly so that each of the lower levels is back to six teams for 2029.  (There would still be the two extra teams, though, so they'd either need to keep one division with seven teams per group or just have eight teams at the lowest level--Division IV, which could then be split into two groups of four.)

In World Juniors, the problem is similar but far less pronounced.  There are only 10 teams at the top level of World Juniors.  However, only one team is relegated.  The two teams that don't make the quarterfinals face each other in a relegation game, with the winner staying at the top level.  To reinsert Russia, they could simply not play a relegation game and have both last-place teams relegated, with Russia joining the team that's promoted as their replacements in 2028. 

They'd still have to figure out the lower levels, but Belarus wasn't in the top level of World Juniors, so they won't need to worry about putting both them and Russia at the top when they reenter.  Although, they had earned promotion in 2022 (the last edition when they played), so an argument could be made for putting them in the top level.  I think it's more likely they'd go back in Division I, though.  Or, they could make the top level of World Juniors a 12-team tournament in 2028 only, having Russia and Belarus both in the main tournament and keep the standard promotion/relegation (with the adjustments then following in 2028-29).

On the women's side, Russia would slot in at No. 7 based on points.  Belarus doesn't have a women's national team, so they're a nonfactor.  Like World Juniors, the top level of the Women's World Championships is a 10-team tournament with a relegation playoff.  So, they could do the same thing and have two teams relegated with Russia and whoever's promoted replacing them in 2028.  Although, there are 47 women's teams in the world rankings (including Russia), so there would have to be an odd number at one of the lower levels.

All of this is why, despite being reinstated, Russia's reentry into international hockey won't be immediate.  Is it all easy enough to figure out?  Absolutely!  Will it all be figured out in the next few months without affecting the 2027 tournaments?  No.  But, they'll have plenty of time for 2028, when we'll finally see the Russian hockey team back in international play.