Shrinking In Brisbane

Under Thomas Bach's 12-year IOC presidency, the Olympics kept getting bigger.  It was his idea to let the local organizing committees choose sports to add to their edition of the Games along with the core Olympic sports.  It's how we ended up with 33 sports in Tokyo and breaking in Paris.  Two years from now in LA, there will be more sports and events than ever--353 gold medal events in 36 sports, with nearly 13,000 athletes participating (far exceeding their target number of 10,500).

Kirsty Coventry succeeded Bach last year and has already made it clear her vision for the Olympics is much different than his.  She's on record as saying the Games can't keep "getting bigger and bigger."  So, it's safe to say that the 2032 Olympics in Brisbane won't be anywhere near as big as the LA Games...in terms of number of events, number of sports or number of athletes.  The Olympics will be slimming down when they get to Australia, getting back closer to that 10,500 number.

So, it's safe to say that lacrosse and flag football will probably be one-and-dones on the Olympic program.  I wouldn't be surprised if squash is, too.  Baseball, softball and cricket might have a chance at staying because Australia is strong in those sports.  But they're all team sports, which means a lot of athletes for one set of medals, so it wouldn't be totally surprising if they aren't contested, either. 

It's also probably not a good sign for the sports federations looking to get their shot at Olympic inclusion in Brisbane.  Ditto about summer sports/disciplines that were hoping the 2030 Winter Games might be their shot.  Coventry has made it clear that the Winter Games are for winter sports...meaning those on snow and ice.  That may change in the future, but for 2030 at least, the Winter Olympics will remain what they should be.  Winter Games, not overflow Summer Games.

There's a practical reason for all of this.  Cost.  Bach's big thing was using existing and temporary venues so that cities weren't blowing their Olympic budgets building new venues that had no post-Games use.  That worked spectacularly in Paris, and that model is being used again in LA.  It's also the plan for Brisbane.  But, as we saw in Milan-Cortina, the use of only preexisting venues results in a very spread out Games.

Brisbane's venue plan has changed multiple times since they were first awarded the Games (another argument for not awarding the Olympics with 11 years of lead time!), and will likely change again before it's finalized.  But the current plan is to have three venue clusters throughout Queensland, as well as a few outlier venues elsewhere in Australia.  And, interestingly, it's not the location of the venues but the number of venues that could lead to the downsizing.

The number of sports on the Olympic program isn't really the problem.  It's the number of disciplines within those sports.  Specifically the number of disciplines that require their own dedicated venue.  So, while the 31 core sports aren't in jeopardy, some of the disciplines within those sports could be in danger when they look at the Olympic program and finalize the event schedule for Brisbane.  They'll likely get plenty of pushback if they try to cut certain disciplines within a sport.  But that doesn't mean they won't do it.  Especially if downsizing the program is the goal.

With that in mind, there could be some obvious targets.  Coastal beach rowing is making its Olympic debut in LA, replacing the lightweight boats in traditional rowing.  Lightweight rowing was contested within the main rowing program, though.  Coastal beach rowing will require a different venue.  So, it could easily be dropped and have the lightweight events return.  Although, would it be fair to determine coastal beach rowing's fate before it even debuts?

BMX freestyle is fairly new, but it shares a course with skateboarding, so it's probably in a fairly good position to stay on the Olympic program.  BMX racing and mountain biking, though, are exactly the type of events they're talking about as possible drops.  They both require their own venue for just that discipline (although, they could add cross country running and have it on the same course as mountain biking), and they're both only the single men's and women's events.  (There are so many events in track cycling that it justifies the existence of a velodrome.)

Modern pentathlon is a core sport, but has been on life support for quite a while.  It originally wasn't on the Olympic program for LA and was only added after they replaced equestrian with an obstacle course (which won't take effect until after the 2028 Olympics, where it'll still be equestrian).  The sport also has a champion in Juan Antonio Samaranch, Jr., the son of the longtime IOC President who was a candidate against Coventry last year.  It's the same thing with modern pentathlon, though.  A sport that isn't too popular and needs its own venue for just men's and women's individual events.  So, while it wouldn't be a shock to see the sport completely dropped, I'd expect it to survive at least one more cycle.

Equestrian presents an interesting dilemma.  There have been the same six equestrian events on the Olympic program for quite a while.  Show jumping isn't going anywhere.  And dressage can be done in the same space as show jumping.  Eventing involves both of those disciplines, as well as a cross country race.  The cross country course obviously isn't the same as the dressage/jumping stadium (although, in Paris, they used the whole grounds at Versailles for the entire equestrian competition, which was awesome!).  Would they ever consider eliminating eventing?  Or does the fact that it's so seeped in Olympic history protect equestrian from any cuts?

Then there's slalom canoeing.  Personally, I prefer slalom canoeing to flatwater canoeing.  But, the simple reality is that there aren't many slalom canoeing courses, and a purpose-built one for the Olympics would almost certainly become the type of white elephant the IOC and Olympic host cities are trying to avoid.  That's why slalom canoeing at LA28 will be in Oklahoma City, where they already have a course.  So, as entertaining as slalom canoeing is, the need for a venue could make it a candidate for elimination.

They won't make any decisions until the summer, but I'm very curious to see what they ultimately do.  One thing is for sure.  Brisbane 32 will look very different than LA 28.  The question is how different?  And how much input will the Brisbane organizers have in the decision-making process?  Because that's another thing Coventry has made clear.  The organizers will get a say, but the final say belongs to the IOC.

What the IOC does with that final say will set the course for the direction of the Olympic movement throughout Kirsty Coventry's tenure as President.  The Olympics were getting too big.  The supersized LA Games are Exhibit A of that.  So, Brisbane will be scaled back to something more manageable.  Which means something will have to be sacrificed.  What that'll ultimately look like remains to be seen, however.