Not On Board With 2042

Over the weekend, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced her support for a 2042 Winter Olympic bid.  The Games would follow the Milan-Cortina model where all of the outdoor sports would be held at existing facilities in Lake Placid, while the Greater New York City area would host indoor sports.  You'd think I'd be all about this idea.  I'm not.  For a number of reasons.

For starters, New York City and Lake Placid are nowhere near each other!  Granted, neither are Milan and Cortina.  And the 2030 Winter Olympics don't even have a host city.  They're just labeled "French Alps" and will be spread throughout the region.  But Lake Placid is closer to both Ottawa and Montreal than it is to New York City.  And it's not exactly an easy trip through the Adirondacks to a tiny town of 2,000 people that was borderline too small in 1980, when the Winter Olympics were much smaller.

Co-brand it as "Lake Placid/New York" all you want.  A majority of the events would end up in Lake Placid since that's where the venues are.  Lake Placid has the bobsled track.  Lake Placid has the ski jump.  Lake Placid has the mountains for skiing.  Lake Placid has the biathlon/cross country course.  Lake Placid has the 1980 Olympic arena that was the site of the Miracle On Ice and could conceivably be used for curling.  And the 1980 Olympic Stadium would also likely figure in somehow.

The speed skating oval made famous by Eric Heiden is still in use, but it's outdoors.  Olympic speed skating competition has been held exclusively indoors since 1994.  (That's one of the reasons the speed skating venue for 2030 hasn't been announced yet...the 1992 venue in Albertville is also outdoors.)  Would they allow them to use the outdoor facility?  Because there aren't really any other options.

What does that leave for New York City?  Pretty much just figure skating, short track (which shares a venue with figure skating) and hockey.  Which would take both Madison Square Garden and presumably Barclays Center offline in the heart of NBA season.  And they'd still need another hockey venue, so they could theoretically use all three NHL arenas (only one of which is actually within the city limits) and leave Barclays for the Nets (while forcing the Knicks on the road and St. John's to play on campus for two weeks).

And, where would the Opening Ceremony be?  You'd have to figure they'd want to have it at MetLife Stadium (which is in New Jersey) or, possibly, Yankee Stadium, but a majority of the athletes would be situated 275 miles away in Lake Placid.  But Lake Placid doesn't have a suitable venue to hold an Olympic Opening Ceremony (and, not to mention, the fact that the town is just too small).  Logistically, I don't see how it would possibly work.

One of the other politicians involved in the Governor's announcement pointed to the fact that Paris and London have hosted the Olympics three times, while Los Angeles will host its third in 2028.  Tokyo and Beijing have hosted twice.  Yet, the Olympics have never been in New York City.  That's true.  But it's also not a reason to just give the Winter Olympics to New York.  With the exception of Beijing, which has hosted one of each, all of those cities have hosted multiple Summer Olympics.  If you want the Olympics in New York (which I very much do), a Summer Games would make way more sense.

He also argued that it was the East Coast's "turn" after LA 2028 and Utah 2034.  I'm not sure how the fact that New York is on the East Coast has anything to do with it.  All three are in the United States.  That's the only relevant point.  And a huge one that would work against any potential Lake Placid/NYC bid.

If Lake Placid/New York were to host in 2042, that would be three Olympics in the U.S. in 14 years.  If that sounds like a lot, that's because it is.  The six years between LA and Utah is close, but that's not uncommon.  It was also six years between the last two Olympics in the United States (Atlanta 1996, Salt Lake 2002), and it'll be six years between the 2024 Paris Games and the 2030 Winter Games in the French Alps.  Three in 14 years, though, that's a heavy burden to put on the USOPC.  More significantly, it'll also get everybody else wondering "Can we go somewhere else?"

That, I think, is the biggest point to be made against a Lake Placid/New York bid for 2042.  It's too soon.  Even with the dwindling amount of potential hosts and interested bidders, it's highly unlikely that they'd return to the U.S. for another Winter Games just eight years after Utah 2034.  Especially since it will have been 20 years since the last Winter Olympics in Asia by that point.  (Remember how everyone had Asia fatigue after the three in a row from 2018-22?  It would be the same thing.  U.S. fatigue.)

Who's to say if the USOPC would even be on board with it?  Yes, it's the local organizing committee that has the responsibility of actually putting on the games.  But the bid has to come from the National Olympic Committee.  So, it's ultimately up to the USOPC if an American bid is even put forward...and if that bid is from Lake Placid/New York or somewhere else.

Unless there were absolutely no other bidders, a bid for the 2042 Winter Games from any American city would probably be DOA.  Especially since the IOC is again reforming the bid process and likely moving away from the "preferred candidate" system favored by Thomas Bach.  We don't know what the bid process for 2042 will look like or who the other bidders will be, but many in Olympic circles have been looking towards Sapporo, Japan as a favorite when/if they ever decide to pursue the Winter Games again.  And 2042 will be 20 years since the Winter Olympics were last in Asia and 21 years since the Olympics were last in Japan.  That's certainly a reasonable amount of time for a return.

It's also incredibly early in the process.  Gov. Hochul expressing interest could be just that.  Interest.  It might ultimately amount to nothing.  They may realize that it would be too big of a logistical challenge or determine that support is just lukewarm.  Or they may deem that it's simply not worth the cost to put into a bid that doesn't have that high a chance of success.  We don't even know what the bid process for an Olympics 16 years from now will look like!

In a way, I love that Gov. Hochul wants to host the Olympics.  And if she was talking about a Summer Olympics just in New York City, I'd be all for it.  An NYC/Lake Placid joint bid, though?  I just don't think it would work.  Especially not in 2042, when the Winter Olympics will almost certainly take place somewhere else.