No More NCAA Tournament As We Knew It

When I was writing about the ridiculous, unnecessary expansion of both the College Football Playoff and the NCAA Tournament, I knew it was pretty much already a done deal in basketball.  It was just a matter of them finalizing all the details, but it was happening.  And, sure enough, the NCAA made the announcement that the March Madness field will be increasing from 68 teams to 76 next season.  Which is something nobody (other than a handful of conferences) asked for or wanted.  Yet, we're getting it anyway.

The NCAA Tournament has long been seen as about as close to perfect as a sporting event can be.  Not just because the math works out perfectly with the 64-team main bracket.  Not just because of the all-day basketball bonanza on Thursday and Friday of the first weekend.  Not just because of the upset potential with a 14-seed from a mid-major taking on a blue blood No. 3 seed from a Power 4 conference.  Rather, it was because of all those things.
 
That NCAA Tournament is effectively dead.  By adding eight at-large teams (who will, almost assuredly, all be from the Power 4 conferences and Big East), they're taking away a lot of the things that make their marquee event so special.  And for what?  Just to make the Power 4 conferences happy?  Because mediocre power conference teams weren't getting in?

In their announcement, the NCAA defended the move by citing the number of Division I teams in 1985 (when the tournament expanded to 64), 2001 (when it went to 65), 2011 (when it increased to 68) and now.  They also gave the percentage of overall teams that make the tournament, which will go from roughly 18 percent to a little over 20.  NCAA President Charlie Baker also said earlier this year that he thinks "too many good teams are being left out."  All of which was used to justify such an unnecessary expansion that will only serve to benefit Power 4 teams while hurting everyone else...and the tournament as a whole.

Let's not pretend that this is anything other than what it is.  A blatant power grab.  The Power 4 (and Big East) wanted more access to the tournament.  And, since the NCAA was never going to get rid of autobids for smaller conferences, tournament expansion was the only way to achieve that.  In the NIL Era, the Power 4 have essentially wiped out any chance mid-major teams have of competing in the tournament anyway.  This expansion further tilts the balance in the direction of the major conferences, while taking away everything that makes the NCAA Tournament great in the process.

It had already become an uphill battle for a team from a conference outside the five biggest leagues to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, there hasn't been a team from outside of the top five conferences to even make the Sweet 16 since 2024, when San Diego State and Gonzaga both made it (and they're both joining the rebuilt Pac-12 next season).  The last true mid-majors to reach the Sweet 16 were Princeton and Florida Atlantic in 2023.  Princeton was a 15-seed that year.  In the last three years, only three double-digit seeds (all from Power 4 conferences) have reached the Sweet 16.

There always used to be at least one mid-major team that would reach the second weekend and get adopted by America.  Now, we're lucky to see a mid-major team get to the second round.  The first-round upsets, the thing that helped make the NCAA Tournament what it is, have already gotten fewer and further between.  Don't be surprised if next season, they truly become a remnant of the past.  I'm not saying it'll never happen again.  But it'll be a rare occurrence when it does.

Under the new format, the 12 lowest-ranked conference champions will play in the opening round (I don't know what they plan on calling it, but it can't be the "First Four" anymore).  When it was four teams, there was at least a chance a conference could avoid having its champion go to Dayton.  For some conferences, that will no longer be the case.  Because, even if they're not in the bottom four, they won't be in the top 20 (next year, the revived Pac-12 brings us back to 32 conferences with automatic bids).  So, the chances of those conference champions not having to go to Dayton (or the other opening round site) range from slim to nonexistent.

Consider the impact this has on the bracket as a whole, too.  All four 16-seeds will come out of the opening round (which I'm actually OK with, since that means all four 1-seeds will play a team that already played a game instead of just two), and so will two 15-seeds.  But, with eight at-large teams being added to the field, that knocks down everybody else.  If this year's tournament had been 76 teams, the other two 16-seeds, all four 15-seeds and two of the 14-seeds would've had to play in the opening round...while the 12- and 13-seeds would become 14s and 15s.

First-round upsets used to be something you could count on.  In the last two tournaments, do you know how many top four seeds lost in the first round?  Zero!  The 5-12 upset is still pretty reliable, but even that seems likely to go away now that the highest-rated conference champions from outside the Power 5 will be 14-seeds instead of 12-seeds.  Seeing those potential upsets is part of the fun!  What even is the point if you go in knowing the chances of one happening are slim to none?

And, frankly, how "good" are these middle-of-the-pack power conference teams that stand to gain the extra at-large bids.  The first four out of this year's tournament (who would be comfortably in next year) were Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State and Indiana.  Was the tournament lacking because they were missing?  Does anyone think any of those four teams would've made a deep run?  I didn't think so.  It's adding them for the sake of adding them.

All the tournament expansion accomplishes is rewarding mediocre teams for being in ginormous Power 5 conferences.  If the additional at-large bids resulted in increased opportunities for mid-majors, as well, that would be one thing.  But you and I know full well that at least six of those eight additional bids will go to the same five leagues (I'm not including the new Pac-12 yet, so it's just the Power 4 and Big East right now).  Because Heaven forbid we hold the NCAA Tournament without the 11th-place team from the Big Ten or the 13th-place team from the SEC!  

Those debates over who "deserves to be in" and who should get in over somebody else won't stop, either.  If anything, they'll get worse.  Because now that the tournament is being expanded, the quality of the field won't be the same.  What constitutes an NCAA Tournament team will be different.  President Baker was right that there are some quality teams that don't get into the tournament each year.  That's always the case.  But, while there might be one or two more teams you could argue belong in the field, can you really make that argument for eight teams?!

This will, no doubt, also be framed as an "opportunity" for those mid-to-low-major teams that are now being relegated to the opening round.  It'll be sold as "enhancing the student-athlete experience" (which, apparently, the NCAA suddenly cares about again).  Six of those 12 teams will get an NCAA Tournament win and have the chance to play in a second NCAA Tournament game.  Just think about all the extra NCAA Tournament units their conference will get because of that extra game!  (Yeah, and think about all the extra NCAA Tournament units the Power 5 will get because of their additional teams in the field!)

I'm also curious how the schedule will work.  The NCAA has said it'll be two tripleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday at both sites.  So, they're going to have teams find out where they're going on Sunday night, then four of them have to play at 5:00 on Tuesday?  And who's broadcasting that second doubleheader?  I'm assuming TNT or TBS will, but does the NCAA even know?  Or are they just leaving it up to Turner (and ESPN on the women's side) to figure that out?  

Bottom line, the NCAA didn't have to do this.  Nobody was clamoring for NCAA Tournament expansion.  They did it because they could and because it will make the Power 4 conferences happy.  This isn't a case where bigger makes better, though.  It should've been a case where less is more.  But, hey, at least they didn't go to 96, so I guess we dodged a bullet there!