Roland Garros 2026

Leading up to the French Open, there was some talk among top players about a boycott.  Aryna Sabalenka and Novak Djokovic were two of the most vocal in their dissatisfaction with the prize money structure, specifically the players' percentage of tournament revenue compared to the other three Grand Slams.  A full-scale boycott was unlikely.  They mainly spoke out to get their point across.  But they did stage a mini boycott by limiting their availability at the pre-tournament media day.

It'll be interesting to see what develops from that moving forward.  But in 2026, the players are set to receive less at Roland Garros than they are at the other Grand Slams.  Which is still a hefty payday for the winners.  Who will those winners be, though?  That's the question.  Because, on the men's side especially, we enter this year's tournament without a clear favorite.

That's because Carlos Alcaraz is injured and missing this year's French Open.  Last year, he won that classic final against Jannik Sinner in what might've been the defining match of their rivalry so far.  Alcaraz then went and started this year by winning the Australian Open, the only Grand Slam title he was missing.  He's the two-time defending champion here and the best clay court player on tour, so Alcaraz would've been the heavy favorite to make it three in a row.  Instead, you'd probably have to say it's Sinner's tournament to lose.

Sinner has been on a roll since losing to Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals.  He regained the No. 1 ranking in April and won every clay court tune-up he played, including his hometown Italian Open.  Alcaraz completed his career Grand Slam with his victory in Australia.  Sinner can complete his with a victory here.  And, like his rival in Melbourne, winning the French Open is Sinner's goal for 2026.  That goal is easily achievable, too.

But, if it isn't Sinner, who else could it be?  The No. 2 and 3 seeds both got their tournaments started with victories on Sunday.  Djokovic has been sitting at 24 Grand Slam titles since the 2023 US Open (Sinner and Alcaraz have won the last nine between them), but he beat Sinner in the Australian Open semifinals.  He just turned 39.  Now he's the veteran.  And no one that age has made a Grand Slam semifinal since Ken Roswell 50 years ago.  Would you put it past him at all to make a run, though?

Or maybe Alexander Zverev can finally get his first Grand Slam title.  Zverev is up to No. 2 in the world and has been a French Open finalist in the past.  More importantly, with Alcaraz out, he doesn't need to worry about beating both him and Sinner.  Which isn't to say his road is easy.  He still has to deal with Djokovic in the semis.  But that's certainly a winnable match.  And he might be one of the only players who can beat Sinner in the final.

If it's anybody other than one of those three, I'd be surprised.  Felix Auger-Aliassime is the No. 4 seed, but he has no chance.  He's never been past the fourth round at Roland Garros.  I do think Daniil Medvedev might have a shot.  Although, he hasn't had a very good clay court season.  They're both in Sinner's half of the bracket, which only makes me even more confident that Sinner will get back to the final.

Then there's the Americans.  Can they continue the momentum from 2025, when three (Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton) reached the round of 16 and two (Tiafoe & Paul) made the quarterfinals?  If the seeds hold, Tiafoe and Shelton would face each other in the round of 16, with Sinner waiting for the winner in the quarters.  It's definitely realistic to see that Sinner vs. American quarterfinal happening, even if that's as far as the American men get.

This is also set to be the final French Open for a retiring French legend.  Gael Monfils is calling it a career at the end of the season.  He was given a wild card for his farewell appearance and takes on countryman Hugo Gaston, another wild card, in the first round.  Whenever Monfils is eliminated, it'll mark the end of an era.

On the women's side, it would be easy to say Iga Swiatek is the one to beat.  She was the three-time defending champion when her reign was ended by Sabalenka in the semifinals last year.  Swiatek then went on to win Wimbledon out of nowhere, getting herself back on track.  However, Swiatek's Achilles heel is Jelena Ostapenko, who's 6-0 all-time against her.  And who would Swiatek meet in the third round?  Ostapenko.  For that reason alone, I can't go with her to win.

Instead, I've got to go with Sabalenka.  She reached her maiden French Open final in 2025, falling to Coco Gauff in three sets.  It was her first Grand Slam final not on hardcourt.  Sabalenka's been to five of the last six Grand Slam finals.  She's had a rough clay court season (she was eliminated in the third round at the Italian Open), so we'll see if that has any bearing.  But I still like Sabalenka to make another deep run.

The draw sets up for a rematch of last year's final between Gauff and Sabalenka in this year's semifinals.  And Gauff has a real shot of defending her title.  She comes in as the No. 3 seed and has had a very good clay court season.  But she needs to get past the other Americans to have a shot at Sabalenka.  Madison Keys, Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova are all in the top half of the draw with Gauff and Sabalenka.  So, it'll be a challenge.

Another one to watch is Elina Svitolina (who's Gael Monfils' wife).  She started the season by reaching the semifinals in Australia and won the Italian Open tune-up event, where she defeated Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff.  So, Svitolina's a definite player.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her in the final.

Rybakina, meanwhile, won the Australian Open and has risen to a career-high ranking of No. 2.  Her best-ever French Open result is the quarterfinals twice, so she isn't considered a favorite.  But it's not totally inconceivable that she can make a deep run, either.  After all, her Australian Open title came a little out of nowhere.  And we've seen some unlikely French Open women's champions before.  A Rybakina title wouldn't be completely out of nowhere like it was Australia, though.

Last year, French wild card Lois Boisson was the out of nowhere semifinalist.  Who will it be this year?  Will there be one?  Or will this be a year when all of the semifinalists are higher seeds?  Could that be our unexpected French open result in 2026?  Either way, I think the ending could be somewhat predictable.

While I'm not completely confident in my pick (I think there are four or five women who can win), give me Sabalenka for the women's title.  She's the best women's player in the world, after all.  And she came so close last year.  So did Sinner.  Without Alcaraz here this year, Sinner gets his first French Open title and completes his career Grand Slam.