2026 Baseball Preview (AL West)

Last year, we finally saw a changing of the guard in the AL West.  The division had been dominated by Houston for so long, but the Astros not only didn't win it in 2025, they didn't even make the playoffs.  Instead, it was the Mariners winning the AL West for the first time in 25 years and coming oh so close to making the first World Series appearance in franchise history.

This season shouldn't be much different.  The Mariners aren't just the best team in this division, they're arguably the best team in the entire American League.  Although, they're also now the hunted.  How will having the target on their backs affect them, if at all?  After all, they're the only team in the Majors that's never been to the World Series, and now there are expectations that they can get there.

Texas is really the only team in the division that has any chance at dethroning Seattle.  Even if they don't, the Rangers are plenty capable of snagging a wild card.  Especially since those three teams in the East will be in a dogfight all season and could easily eat each other alive.  And who knows what Houston will do?  The Astros have been shedding players left and right over the past few years, to the point that they're a middle-of-the-pack team now.

There will also be American League baseball played in the State of California.  The A's will continue their vagabond existence as not the worst team in the division and with actual reasons to be optimistic they'll be good once they do officially relocate to Las Vegas.  The Angels, meanwhile, will be doing battle with the White Sox for the worst record in the AL.  Fortunately for them, there are National League teams that are worse.

1. Seattle Mariners: Can they repeat what they did last year?  There's no reason to believe they won't.  Is it realistic to think Cal Raleigh will hit 60 home runs again?  Of course not!  But he doesn't need to.  The Mariners have built a really complete lineup.  Losing Eugenio Suarez's bat hurts, but they did re-sign Josh Naylor, which was huge.  And you also know that they'll be active at the deadline if they need a bat.  They might not need to do anything major at the deadline, though.  Because this team is really good as-is.

That includes their starting rotation, which is really underrated.  None of them are superstars, but the top four are all top-notch Major League starters.  If they can stay healthy, that's an even bigger strength than their devastating lineup.  Especially since they've got one of the best closers in the business in Andres Munoz.  As you can tell, I really like this team.  I have a lot of reason to.  There's a real possibility the Mariners could run away with this division.
Projected Lineup: Julio Rodriguez-CF, Randy Arozarena-LF, Cal Raleigh-C, Josh Naylor-1B, Victor Robles-RF, Brendan Donovan-3B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Rob Refsnyder-DH, Cole Young-2B
Projected Rotation: Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller
Closer: Andres Munoz
Projected Record: 92-70

2. Texas Rangers: Just imagine how different things would've been for the Rangers had they been healthy at all at any point in the two seasons since they won the World Series.  Especially in their pitching staff.  Texas built a top-tier starting rotation, but it's been ravaged by injuries.  Which isn't entirely bad since it allowed Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker to develop at the Major League level.  With the two of them, Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and new addition Mackenize Gore, who came over from Washington, that's the strength of the team.

Their lineup will look different, too.  Marcus Semien is gone.  So is Adolis Garcia.  Which really puts the onus on Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter to perform at a high level.  I'm also curious to see what they get from longtime Met Brandon Nimmo, who Texas acquired in the Semien trade.  He replaces Garcia in right, but is a very different type of player without that same power.  If players stay healthy, they're the AL West team most capable of challenging in Seattle.  If they don't, the Rangers are looking at another season out of the playoffs.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Nimmo-RF, Wyatt Langford-LF, Corey Seager-SS, Jake Burger-1B, Jace Jung-3B, Joc Pederson-DH, Evan Carter-CF, Kyle Higashioka-C, Josh Smith-2B
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Mackenzie Gore, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker
Closer: Robert Garcia
Projected Record: 90-72

3. Houston Astros: To say the Astros' roster looks different than it has in recent years is an understatement.  Seemingly everybody not named Jose Altuve has either been traded or left as a free agent when the time game.  The latest former Astro to join that list is Framber Valdez, who's now a part of that sensational rotation in Detroit.  It leaves Hunter Brown as the ace of the staff, with the rest of the rotation likely to be filled out by whoever's healthy at the moment.  They do have an elite closer in Josh Hader, though.

The big news on the lineup front is that Altuve moves back to second base after that ill-fated adventure in left field last season.  Instead, Yordan Alvarez is projected to be out there, even though his best position is actually DH.  Houston's biggest problem over the past couple seasons has been keeping people healthy.  This lineup can be incredibly dangerous if everybody's in it at the same time.  But, in addition to the lineup, they have to keep the pitching staff healthy, too.  Should both of those things happen, the Astros could regain their once seemingly permanent place in October.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Carlos Correa-3B, Yordan Alvarez-LF, Christian Walker-1B, Isaac Paredes-DH, Jeremy Pena-SS, Jake Meyers-CF, Yainer Diaz-C, Cam Smith-RF
Projected Rotation: Hunter Brown, Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr.
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 85-77

4. Athletics: Something strange happened last season in Sacramento.  The team without a home playing in a Minor League park showed promise.  They had the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting and added them to a talented young core that already included Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers.  This season, they threw a veteran into the mix, making a trade with the Mets for Jeff McNeil.  It won't translate into a playoff berth, but Not Oakland/Not Las Vegas will definitely be watchable.

While they're set up lineup-wise for when they move to Las Vegas, the pitching staff is still a weakness.  They made the big splash last winter to bring in Luis Severino, only for him to complain about pitching in Sacramento and being terrible at home.  Unfortunately, they don't have much of a rotation behind Severino.  There's also a question about who'll finish games.  They had an All*Star closer in Mason Miller, but traded him to San Diego at the deadline last season.  So, who'll be their closer?
Projected Lineup: Lawrence Butler-RF, Jacob Wilson-SS, Nick Kurtz-1B, Brent Rooker-DH, Shea Langeliers-C, Tyler Soderstrom-LF, Jeff McNeil-2B, Max Muncy-3B, Denzel Clarke-CF
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez, Luis Morales
Closer: Elvis Alvarado
Projected Record: 74-88
 
5. Los Angeles Angels: Here's the good news: Anthony Rendon is no longer taking up a roster spot!  They restructured his contract to spread the money they're wasting on him over seven years, which was a necessary move.  That contract was an albatross that was holding them back from doing the things they need to do to become competitive again.  And they used some of that money to help their bullpen by signing Kirby Yates.  That's the first step, with so many left to go.

They have the longest playoff drought in Baseball, and it will likely continue this season.  Their pitching staff is a mess, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.  So, it doesn't really matter how good their offense is if their pitchers can't hold a lead.  They also have no depth, which will make it tough to navigate around Mike Trout's inevitable injury.  And they can't even DH Trout since Jorge Soler is there.  This isn't the worst Angels team, but it isn't exactly good either.
Projected Lineup: Josh Lowe-LF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Mike Trout-CF, Jorge Soler-DH, Nolan Schanuel-1B, Logan O'Hoppe-C, Jo Adell-RF, Adam Frazier-2B, Zach Neto-SS
Projected Rotation: Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Johnson
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 64-98

2026 Baseball Preview (NL Central)

Isn't there something wonderful about the pure chaos the NL Central causes?!  Last year, it was the Brewers who went on that three-week stretch when they couldn't lose and ended up as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.  And it was Cincinnati who came out of nowhere to grab the last wild card and knock the Mets out of the playoffs.  All of this while many people thought the Cubs were actually the most talented team in the division.

So, the real question is: What does the NL Central have in store for us this season?  Will it cause just as much chaos?  Can the division manage to get three playoff teams again?  And, if not, which of the three falls off?  Because, make no mistake, it's still those three.  It sounds really weird to be talking about the NL Central and making absolutely no mention of the Cardinals, but St. Louis is committed to a rebuild and figures to be a non-factor this season.

Although, I think it's probably a bit unrealistic to think the NL Central will get three playoff berths again.  It might even be a stretch to see them getting two.  So, which of the three will it be?  And what will their win total look like?  Because I'm not sure any of them reach 90.  I do see them all finishing in the mid-to-high 80s.  Which won't be enough for a wild card.

I've gotta think the Brewers are the team to beat, though.  Milwaukee is just so consistently good year-after-year, and there's nothing to indicate that won't be the case again this season.  I give the Reds the slight edge over the Cubs for second place, while, I can't believe I'm saying this, the Pirates are better than the Cardinals.  After going more than 30 years between last-place finishes, St. Louis will have its second in four seasons.

1. Milwaukee Brewers: We saw just how good some of the Brewers' core players are during the WBC.  Brice Turang made the All-Tournament Team.  William Contreras and Jackson Chourio contributed to Venezuela's championship (as did reliever Angel Zerpa).  They aren't unknowns anymore, and they'll be key to Milwaukee's success again.  They're the perfect type of player for the type of team Milwaukee is.  The Brewers don't have a bunch of superstars.  They just have a bunch of really good guys who know their roles.  Much like Toronto and Tampa Bay.

The closest thing the Brewers have to a star is Jacob Misiorowski, who took the NL by storm when he was called up in June and ended up making the All*Star team after just five Major League starts.  Now he's tasked with being the ace of the staff.  If Misirowski has a sophomore slump, there go Milwaukee's chances.  The rest of the rotation simply isn't strong enough behind him.  Their bullpen will have a new look, too, as closer Trevor Megill and setup man Abner Uribe have swapped roles.  Still, these aren't exactly the days of Josh Hader and Devin Williams basically being interchangeable in the Brewers bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Jackson Chourio-LF, Brice Turang-2B, Christian Yelich-DH, William Contreras-C, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Sal Frelick-RF, Luis Rengifo-3B, Joey Ortiz-SS, Garrett Mitchell-CF
Projected Rotation: Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Brandon Woodruff, Kyle Harrison, Aaron Ashby
Closer: Abner Uribe
Projected Record: 87-75

2. Cincinnati Reds: In news that will shock absolutely no one, Terry Francona is a really good manager!  In his first year after the Reds coaxed him out of retirement, he took Cincinnati to the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2013 after a ridiculous stretch run.  People thought the Reds were a team on the brink, but nobody expected a playoff berth in the first year.  Now the challenge becomes following it up.  Which they certainly can do.  They might have the best pitching staff in the division and a homer-happy lineup playing in a homer-happy ballpark.

Bringing back Eugenio Suarez was such a huge addition.  Not only is it a big veteran bat to put in the middle of the lineup, it signifies a commitment to building a team that can contend for the playoffs.  They also get a full year of Ke'Bryan Hayes.  And, of course, their franchise shortstop Elly de la Cruz.  But it's the pitching I really like.  Hunter Greene heads a rotation that's sneaky good.  Closer Emilio Pagan, meanwhile, had 32 saves and a 2.88 ERA last year.  They're in really good shape with their pitching staff for the first time in quite a while.  If anyone's gonna challege Milwaukee for the division title, it'll be the Reds.
Projected Lineup: TJ Friedl-CF, Noelvi Marte-RF, Elly de la Cruz-SS, Eugenio Suarez-DH, Spencer Steer-LF, Tyler Stephenson-C, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Sal Stewart-1B, Matt McLain-2B
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder
Closer: Emilio Pagan
Projected Record: 85-77

3. Chicago Cubs: Last year, they made the big splash by trading for Kyle Tucker, which made them the preseason NL Central favorites.  Instead, they ended up losing a five-game Division Series to the Brewers, then saw Tucker leave for the Dodgers as a free agent.  So, they pivoted and signed Alex Bregman, who fits right into their loaded lineup that already featured Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner.

Meanwhile, can their rotation follow up what it did in 2025?  Cade Horton was a Rookie of the Year finalist and Matthew Boyd was a Cy Young contender for much of the year.  Then there's that bullpen with a great setup man in Phil Maton and an exceptional closer in Daniel Palencia, who's coming off getting the save in the WBC Championship Game.  I have a feeling the Cubs will either end up being really good or hover around .500 and miss the playoffs.
Projected Lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong-CF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Alex Bregman-3B, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Ian Happ-LF, Michael Busch-1B, Nico Hoerner-2B, Moises Ballesteros-DH, Carson Kelly-C
Projected Rotation: Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon
Closer: Daniel Palencia
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: During the WBC semifinals, John Smoltz made a really good point that was sad, but true.  That was the biggest game Paul Skenes will pitch all year and might be the biggest he pitches until the next WBC.  Don't think the Pirates don't realize that, either.  They know that there's only a limited amount of time to put a competitive team on the field behind him before Skenes inevitably leaves as a free agent much like Gerrit Cole did before him.  Unfortunately, this won't be the year when that happens.

When your best player is a starting pitcher who'll only appear in 34-35 games all season, it speaks volumes about your offense.  Give Bryan Reynolds credit for sticking it out in Pittsburgh all this time, and moving Oneil Cruz to center field was a great move.  They've also made some additions, most notably Marcell Ozuna, who got squeezed out in Atlanta but will get regular DH at-bats with the Pirates.  They also added second baseman Brandon Lowe in a trade with Tampa Bay.  So, they are building up the roster.  They aren't there yet, but if they keep adding and those guys perform, they may actually be able to field a competitive team behind Skenes before he's gone.  But, hey, at least they'll be watchable every five days when he pitches!
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-LF, Oneil Cruz-CF, Brandon Lowe-2B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Jared Triolo-3B, Ryan O'Hearn-RF. Spencer Horwitz-1B, Nick Gonzalez-SS, Henry Davis-C
Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Jose Urquidy
Closer: Dennis Santana
Projected Record: 72-90

5. St. Louis Cardinals: This is really weird.  The St. Louis Cardinals figure to be a complete non-factor this season.  After dangling Nolan Arenado out there all of last season, they finally traded him to Arizona.  He was really the last veteran position player that St. Louis had.  Now, they've completely turned it over to the youth movement.  Sure, there's some talent there in the likes of Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker, but not nearly enough.  And your guess is as good as mine who'll be the Cardinals' All*Star this season.

It'll be a similar situation on the pitching staff.  Sonny Gray is now in Boston, and their oldest starting pitcher is 28-year-old Kyle Leahy.  They do have Ryne Stanek in the bullpen, but he's really the only veteran presence on the roster.  There will be some growing pains in St. Louis with this young roster.  The experience they'll gain will prove valuable when they become the core of the Cardinals' next window of contention in a few years.  This year will produce a lot of losses, though.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-LF, Jordan Walker-RF, Ivan Herrera-DH, Alec Burleson-1B, Nolan Gorman-3B, Thomas Saggesse-2B, Victor Scott II-CF, Pedro Pages-C, Masyn Winn-SS
Projected Rotation: Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, Andre Pallante
Closer: JoJo Romero
Projected Record: 67-95

2026 Baseball Preview (AL East)

Last year, the AL East was the best and most competitive division in baseball by far.  Three teams made the playoffs, with the Blue Jays coming literally within an inch of winning the World Series.  And it figures to be more of the same this year.  Toronto, the Yankees and Boston should once again be in a three-way race at the top, and all six of those possible combinations seem very plausible.  It's also very realistic to think they can all win 90 games.  And that they'll all be in the playoffs once again.

It's such a razor-thin margin between the three that they all legitimately believe they're the best team in the AL East, if not the entire American League (although, I'm sure Seattle would have something to say about that).  It's such a narrow margin that their games against each other could very well determine who wins the division.  Whoever has the best record in their 26 games against the other two likely wins the division.  And whoever has the worst record in those 26 games among the three likely starts the playoffs on the road.

Whoever wins the AL East will almost certainly be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.  As we saw last season, that's such a huge advantage.  Especially since second place means not only having to play in the Wild Card Series, but also having to start the Division Series (against a very familiar opponent) on the road.  So, yeah, with this division especially the difference between first and second place is massive!  And winning the division could very well be the difference between winning the pennant and making an early playoff exit.

Let's not forget about the Orioles and Rays, either.  Baltimore has been one of the most disappointing teams over the past two seasons, but still has most of the pieces from a team that was the AL's No. 1 seed in 2023.  And Tampa Bay's 2025 season was never really able to get going because of the stadium situation.  Now that they're back at home, expect the Rays to rebound.  Enough to contend in a loaded division, though?  That's the question.

1. New York Yankees: The Yankees essentially decided to run it back with a team that got its asses kicked by Toronto in both the regular season and the playoffs last year.  So, why do I have them as the division favorites?  Two reasons.  First, despite their struggles against the Blue Jays last season, they still finished with 94 wins and tied for the best record in the American League.  Second, they didn't have Gerrit Cole last year.  They'll get their ace back sometime in May or June, which obviously makes their rotation that much better.

And the team that they had was already pretty good.  Aaron Judge is an otherworldly talent.  Keeping Cody Bellinger was the offseason priority for a reason.  He showed last year that he's a perfect fit in this lineup.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Rice breaks out even more now that he's entrenched as the starter at first base.  They also have depth, which is something that's been lacking in recent years, and will help them navigate Giancarlo Staton's inevitable stint on the IL.  And, if the bullpen is even remotely better than the sorry unit that went out there most nights last year, there's reason to think running it back might not have been a terrible strategy after all.
Projected Lineup: Trent Grisham-CF, Aaron Judge-RF, Cody Bellinger-LF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Ben Rice-1B, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-2B, Austin Wells-C, Jose Caballero-SS, Ryan McMahon-3B
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, Luis Gil
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 95-67

2. Toronto Blue Jays: Was Toronto's dream 2025 season a flash in the pan that was the result of everyone staying healthy and having career years at the same time?  Or was it the Blue Jays marking their arrival as a consistent force in the American League?  Or maybe it was a combination of both.  Personally, I can't possibly see every player on the Blue Jays having as good a year in 2026 as he did in 2025.  But they also don't all need to.  Because the way they play where they grind out at-bats and wear you down forces opposing pitchers into making mistakes, which is just as damaging.

Anyway, Vlad Guerrero Jr. signing the long-term extension at the start of last season is obviously what got everything started.  Locking up your best player for a decade and having him play like it certainly shows the investment was worth it.  Vlad Jr.'s far from alone, too.  Yes, they lost Bo Bichette, but they replaced him with Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto.  And they added Dylan Cease to front a rotation that's otherwise intact from the World Series (although Trey Yesavage is already out to start the year).  So, even if they're not as good as last season, the Blue Jays will still be pretty damn good!
Projected Lineup: George Springer-DH, Nathan Lukes-LF, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Daulton Varsho-CF, Kazuma Okamoto-3B, Addison Barger-RF, Ernie Clement-2B, Andres Gimenez-SS
Projected Rotation: Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios
Closer: Jeff Hoffman
Projected Record: 93-69

3. Boston Red Sox: Seemingly all of the breakout stars at the WBC were Red Sox.  Roman Anthony (USA).  Wilyer Abreu (Venezuela).  Jarren Duran (Mexico).  Masataka Yoshida (Japan).  Greg Weissert (Italy).  They're, for the most part, all young, too.  This youth movement in Boston started with the Rafael Devers trade in the middle of last season, and this young core will make or break the Red Sox' season.  They'll be complimented by some veterans, although I think the loss of Alex Bregman could be significant since it means they'll need to rely on the likes of Anthony and Duran even more.

They've significantly upgraded their rotation behind Garret Crochet, as well.  Ranger Suarez comes over from the Phillies and Sonny Gray comes over from St. Louis.  That pushes Brayan Bello back to the No. 4 spot, which is a more appropriate place for him, and one where I think he'll be very successful.  Aroldis Chapman's career was revived when he signed with Boston last season, but can that resurgence continue?  This is a playoff team.  But it's also a team with a lot of questions around it.  Which is why I think the Red Sox are a third-place team.
Projected Lineup: Roman Anthony-DH, Jarren Duran-LF, Trevor Story-SS, Willson Contreras-1B, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Caleb Durbin-3B, Marcelo Mayer-2B, Carlos Narvaez-C, Ceddanne Rafaela-CF
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 91-71

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Things were never going to go their way last season.  Having to play the entire season on the road, with all of their "home" games frontloaded, the Rays running out of gas at the end easily could've been predicted.  With the stadium situation (mostly) resolved, Tampa Bay can shift its focus back on the field and attempting to do what we've grown so accustomed to seeing.  Pretty much every year, the Rays contend for the division title despite having a roster that isn't nearly as flashy (or high-priced) as some others.  So, would it surprise anyone if they did it again?

That's not to say there aren't some legit stars on this team.  Junior Caminero.  Jonathan Aranda.  Yandy Diaz.  Gavin Lux arrives in a trade with the Reds.  Will he finally get the chance to show what made him such a highly regarded prospect with the Dodgers?  They also have Cedric Mullins to roam center field now, too.  So, they shouldn't have a problem hitting.  If they can get the pitching to back it up, we could see the Rays once again be in the conversation come late September.  After all, they've done more with less before.
Projected Lineup: Chandler Simpson-LF, Yandy Diaz-DH, Junior Caminero-3B, Jonathan Aranda-1B, Jake Fraley-RF, Gavin Lux-2B, Taylor Walls-SS, Nick Fortes-C, Cedric Mullins-CF
Projected Rotation: Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan
Closer: Griffin Jax
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore made one of the biggest splashes of free agency by singing Pete Alonso.  He doesn't just give the Orioles more star power, he's a veteran to mix in with all those young guys.  Although, at this point, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman aren't necessarily "young guys" anymore either.  They still have plenty of them, though.  And that includes their new manager, 43-year-old Craig Albernaz.  He's got a tough task ahead of him.  Because the Orioles aren't nearly as good as the top three teams in the division.

In addition to being youth-reliant in the lineup, Baltimore's pitching staff simply isn't as deep in the rest of the division.  Trevor Rogers comes over from the Marlins and Chris Bassitt comes over from the Blue Jays.  They also have a new closer in former Cardinal Ryan Helsley.  If this bargain-basement rotation can get the job done, though, the Orioles may surprise.  I think the fact that expectations are low could actually work in their favor.  If they aren't good, they're not supposed to be.  If they are, they can complicate life for the top three teams in the division.
Projected Lineup: Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschman-C, Pete Alonso-1B, Tyer O'Neill-RF, Taylor Ward-LF, Samuel Basallo-DH, Colton Cowser-CF, Coby Mayo-3B, Blaze Alexander-2B
Projected Rotation: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, Zach Eflin
Closer: Ryan Helsley
Projected Record: 73-89

2026 Baseball Preview (NL West)

We've been so spoiled by the World Baseball Classic that it's almost hard to believe that the regular season is only about a week away.  Which means it's time for the annual six-part MLB season preview.  And, since we have that Yankees-Giants standalone season opener, it makes sense to start with those two divisions.  It's a San Francisco home game, so I'll start there.

The NL West, of course, has been the Dodgers' domain for the better part of a decade.  They're the two-time defending World Series champions, and they're the favorite to make it three straight.  Even though the Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites, though, to think the outcome in October is predetermined couldn't be further from the truth.  After all, just think about how close they came to not winning either World Series!  They were down 2-1 in the 2024 Division Series against the Padres, and we all saw how close the Blue Jays came to beating them in Game 7.  So, don't think anything's guaranteed.

Still, the rest of the NL West knows that they're likely fighting for second place.  Which is enough.  Because being good enough to get into the playoffs and taking your chances once you get there is an entirely reasonable goal.  And there are two NL West teams in particular who'll be in that fight for the wild cards.  Which may even be closer and more exciting than the division race.

Both the Giants and Padres should be in the wild card mix.  San Diego has made the playoffs in each of the last two years and four times in the last six seasons.  San Francisco is a really dangerous team that should be much improved and will definitely be a factor in the playoff race.  The Diamondbacks are only three years removed from a World Series appearance and are on the fringes of contention, but are stuck in a stacked division.  Colorado, meanwhile, is still one of the worst teams in baseball.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Yes, we're likely headed to a lockout after this season.  Yes, the Dodgers will be blamed for it (although they're far from the only reason).  And the rich continued to get richer as they once again signed one of the premier free agents on the market in Kyle Tucker, who's actually a perfect fit in that lineup.  If there's any negative to the Tucker signing, it's that they added another lefty bat when they're already lefty-heavy, but that's a minor quibble.

Whatever weakness this team has is in the pitching staff.  Not that their pitching staff is bad.  They also signed Edwin Diaz, giving them a true closer for the first time since Kenley Jansen left.  The rest of the bullpen will be mix-and-match depending on who's healthy.  The same could be said about their rotation, which only includes about nine starters now that Clayton Kershaw is retired.  Still, Roki Sasaki moves back into the rotation after his star turn as a reliever during the playoffs last season.  A rotation that's already stacked, assuming they stay healthy.  Even if they don't, the Dodgers have plenty of backup options available waiting to step in.
Projected Lineup: Shohei Ohtani-DH, Mookie Betts-SS, Freddie Freeman-1B, Will Smith-C, Kyle Tucker-LF, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Max Muncy-3B, Andy Pages-CF, Tommy Edman-2B
Projected Rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 100-62

2. San Francisco Giants: For some reason, I think the Giants are gonna be really good this year.  Good enough to challenge the Dodgers for the division title?  Probably not.  But I wouldn't be surprised if they end up hosting the 4 vs. 5 Wild Card Series.  Buster Posey has slowly been putting together a real contender.  And, the unconventional managing hire of Tony Vitiello, formerly of the University of Tennessee was either a stroke of brilliance or the thing that will hold the team back.

Some of the moves regarding the roster could end up being questionable, too.  Moving Luis Arraez back to second base.  A full year of the Rafael Devers-as-a-first-baseman experiment.  If they work, though?  Look out!  And the front of San Francisco's rotation can hold its own against anybody.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness, but it's also the area they'll address at the deadline should they be in the mix.  I just have a feeling about the Giants this season.  I may be way off.  But I have a feeling they're gonna have a really good year.
Projected Lineup: Luis Arraez-2B, Jung Hoo Lee-RF, Rafael Devers-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Heliot Ramos-LF, Willy Adames-SS, Harrison Bader-CF, Bryce Eldridge-DH, Patrick Bailey-C
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Carson Whisenhunt, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle
Closer: Ryan Walker
Projected Record: 92-70

3. San Diego Padres: It has to be an incredibly frustrating time to be a Padres fan.  The team has been consistently good for half a decade, but still hasn't gotten over the hump and made the World Series.  They know the window is closing, too.  It isn't closed yet, but they're running out of time and that pesky team two and a half hours north isn't going anywhere.  If there's any team that isn't scared of the Dodgers, though, it's the Padres.  They're one of the few teams with a lineup that can go toe-to-toe against them.

Even without Luis Arraez, San Diego's lineup is loaded.  They're, of course, led by a pair of superstars in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., but don't sleep on Jackson Merrill or Jake Cronenworth.  And I love the addition of Nick Castellanos at DH!  They'll probably need to rely on outscoring teams, however, since their rotation is what's taken the biggest hit in free agency.  They have the All-World closer in Mason Miller, but will they be able to get the ball to him enough?  I'm just not sure San Diego is one of the six best teams in the National League anymore, so they'll likely be watching in October.
Projected Lineup: Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Jake Cronenworth-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Nick Castellanos-DH, Jackson Merrill-CF, Gavin Sheets-1B, Freddy Fermin-C, Ramon Laureano-LF
Projected Rotation: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez
Closer: Mason Miller
Projected Record: 84-78

4. Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona is the fourth-best team in this division.  Which says more about the quality of the NL West than the Diamondbacks.  Because if they played in the NL Central, we'd be talking about them as potential division champions.  As it is, in the NL West, they'll be battling for a wild card at best and will be fighting to finish .500 at worst.  It's really a pretty thin line, too.  If it all clicks, though, it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if this team ends up in the playoffs.

Their lineup doesn't have many holes.  And they added a pair of veterans in Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana.  Their rotation also, surprisingly, remains mostly intact.  Losing ace Corbin Burnes will hurt, but Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are plenty capable of picking up the slack.  Their bullpen is where I worry, though.  Most of the Diamondbacks' top relievers are injured, so I don't know where they'll go at the end of games.  And that bullpen could be their Achilles' heel.
Projected Lineup: Corbin Carroll-RF, Carlos Santana-1B, Ketel Marte-2B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Geraldo Perdomo-SS, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Jordan Lawlar-DH, Alek Thomas-CF, Gabriel Moreno-C
Projected Rotation: Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
Closer: Ryan Thompson
Projected Record: 79-83

5. Colorado Rockies: Forgive the pun, but last season was rock bottom in Colorado.  No one expected the Rockies to be good, but I don't think anybody thought they would be that bad!  So, the good news is this season can't be much worse.  At least it probably can't.  They can at least take solace in the fact that they might not be the worst team in baseball, too.  They may not even be the worst team in the National League.

Still, expect 100 losses again.  There simply isn't enough talent to compete.  Especially in the NL West.  They have some individual stars (Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar) just not nearly enough of them.  And their rotation behind ace Kyle Freeland is three veterans who all pitched for different countries in the WBC.  That's why I think there's room for improvement in Colorado this season.  The Rockies still aren't good, but they are better.
Projected Lineup: Tyler Freeman-RF, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Hunter Goodman-C, Mickey Moniak-DH, Willi Castro-3B, Edouard Julien-1B, Jordan Beck-LF, Brenton Doyle-CF, Ryan Ritter-2B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jose Quintana, Ryan Feltner
Closer: Seth Halvorsen
Projected Record: 59-103

Joe Men's Bracket, 2026

All of the bubble teams will be watching the Atlantic 10 Championship Game with great interest.  Dayton upset Saint Louis in the semifinals and is playing VCU in the final.  If Dayton wins, they steal a bid.  Although, it might be VCU's bid they steal, so the A-10 Championship Game could very well be an NCAA Tournament play-in.  Still, you'd have to think teams like Miami (OH), SMU and all those SEC teams will be rooting pretty hard for VCU just in case.

Last year, basically the entire SEC made it.  They set a record with 14 teams, including two 1-seeds, who ended up meeting each other in the Final Four, with Florida winning the championship.  Florida tried to play itself out of a 1-seed this year, but so did UConn.  That blowout loss to St. John's in the Big East Championship Game I think sealed it.  Despite its loss to Vanderbilt, Florida will be the fourth No. 1 seed.

The other three No. 1 seeds are incredibly easy calls.  Duke will be No. 1 overall.  Arizona and Michigan will be No. 2 and 3 overall.  The order doesn't really matter since they'd be matched up against each other in the Final Four anyway.  The only difference is who wears their home jerseys should they both get there.  Since Arizona beat a very good Houston team for the Big 12 title, they get the nod as the higher overall seed.

Three of the 2-seeds are easy, as well.  Houston and UConn both had the chance to be No. 1's.  They didn't quite get there, so that keeps them on the 2-line.  Iowa State wasn't moving off the 2-line.  As for the fourth 2-seed, my choice might surprise you a bit.  I think if Vanderbilt wins the SEC Championship Game, they get it.  There has to be some sort of reward for winning the conference tournament.  Likewise, I think winning the Big East moves St. John's from a 4-seed to a 3-seed.

As for one of the other 3-seeds, Nebraska is the only Power 4 school that has never won an NCAA Tournament game.  That could very well change this year.  In fact, I'd be surprised if it doesn't.  It's not even a stretch to say the Huskers could reach the Sweet 16.  They're one of many Big Ten teams that could.  Not only will the Big Ten place the most teams in the field, they're all quality teams.  Six of them should get a 5-seed or higher.

Now, about that pesky bubble.  The conversation has been around whether Miami (OH) deserves an at-large bid after falling in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the First Four simply because of how the bubble is shaking out.  I do think they're in the Tournament, though.  As I said the other day, it sets a terrible precedent and sends a terrible message if they aren't.  I've actually got them in the last at-large spot before the First Four, in fact.

Whether Miami (OH) gets in as they should or not, this is looking to be a pretty good year for mid-majors.  Saint Louis is a lock, and the West Coast Conference should get both Saint Mary's and Santa Clara.  Miami (OH) would make four at-large bids from conferences outside the Power 4 and Big East (which only gets at-large bids for UConn and Villanova).  That's still not a lot compared to years past.  But I don't think we're ever going back to that, so four is pretty good.

Part of the reason for that is the SEC won't be getting an absurd number of teams this year.  I've "only" got them with 10, and that includes Missouri and Texas playing in the First Four.  That's only one more than number of teams I have from the Big Ten.  The ACC and Big 12, meanwhile, have eight each.  Then, counting up all the other at-large bids, it's the Big East and West Coast Conference with three, then the Atlantic 10 and MAC with two apiece.

That conference breakdown and where certain teams slot actually created a whole bunch of difficulty filling out the bracket.  As a result, I ended up flipping Akron from a 12-seed to an 11 and pushing one of the First Four games into that 12-seed slot.  It was the only way to keep Missouri, Texas and their opponents away from conference teams.  (I know they're allowed to have conference teams potentially play each other on the first weekend now, but I still don't like it and try to avoid it on my bracket if possible.)

EAST (Washington)
Greenville: 1-Duke (1) vs. 16-UMBC, 8-TCU vs. 9-Iowa
Tampa: 5-Wisconsin vs. 12-High Point, 4-Alabama vs. 13-Hofstra
Buffalo: 6-Tennessee vs. 11-South Florida, 3-Michigan State vs. 14-Wright State
St. Louis: 7-Kentucky vs. 10-NC State, 2-Iowa State vs. 15-Queens

SOUTH (Houston)
Tampa: 1-Florida (4) vs. 16-Lehigh/Prairie View, 8-Ohio State vs. 9-Utah State
San Diego: 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-Missouri/SMU, 4-Illinois vs. 13-Northern Iowa
Greenville: 6-BYU vs. 11-VCU, 3-Virginia vs. 14-Tennessee State
Philadelphia: 7-Saint Mary's vs. 10-Texas A&M, 2-Connecticut vs. 15-Siena

WEST (San Jose)
San Diego: 1-Arizona (2) vs. 16-Idaho, 8-Saint Louis vs. 9-Villanova
Portland: 5-Purdue vs. 12-McNeese State, 4-Gonzaga vs. 13-North Dakota State
Oklahoma City: 6-Louisville vs. 11-Central Florida/Texas, 3-Nebraska vs. 14-Hawai'i
St. Louis: 7-Miami vs. 10-Miami (OH), 2-Vanderbilt vs. 15-Furman

MIDWEST (Chicago)
Buffalo: 1-Michigan (3) vs. 16-Long Island/Howard, 8-Clemson vs. 9-Georgia
Portland: 5-Arkansas vs. 12-Yale, 4-Kansas vs. 13-Utah Valley
Philadelphia: 6-North Carolina vs. 11-Akron, 3-St. John's vs. 14-Troy
Oklahoma City: 7-UCLA vs. 10-Santa Clara, 2-Houston vs. 15-Kennesaw State 

In the Final Four, it'll be East vs. South and West vs. Midwest.  Will we see a repeat and have all four No. 1 seeds make it to Indianapolis?  Don't count on it.  It would be just the third time ever.  And I have a feeling this year's NCAA Tournament will be wide open.  After all, they call it March Madness for a reason.

Joe Women's Bracket, 2026

As we head into Selection Sunday, it's a familiar tune for the women's tournament.  Defending champion UConn is undefeated and the clear No. 1 overall seed.  Does that mean the Huskies are unbeatable, though?  Absolutely not.  They're the favorites, and they should be, but the other three No. 1 seeds are all very capable.  In fact, I think the talent at the top of the women's game might be better than it's ever been.

That talent at the top is reflected in just how many Power 4 teams figure to make the field.  There aren't many at-large bids to be had from outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.  In fact, Villanova is the only team from another conference that's a lock.  I do think Richmond will also get a bid, but as one of the last teams in and destined for the First Four.  So, that's 35 of 37 at-large bids going to the same four leagues.  The basketball is just that good in those conferences!

The strongest of those?  The Big Ten.  UCLA is the clear No. 2 overall team and a very legitimate threat for the title.  They made their first Final Four last season, and there's no reason to think they won't get back.  I've got UCLA leading 11 Big Ten teams into the field.

Texas and South Carolina met in the SEC Championship Game, with the Longhorns getting the win.  They were both headed to No. 1 seeds either way, but that victory flipped their overall rankings.  It made Texas No. 3 overall, which means UCLA in the Final Four instead of UConn.  It also means that instead of traveling to Sacramento, Texas gets the Regional in Fort Worth.  That's obviously a huge advantage for them.

In Fort Worth, they'll join UConn, which sends South Carolina out west with UCLA.  That's because the NCAA is still doing that ridiculous two Regional format they've been using for the past several years.  I have no idea why they think this format is better.  It's not.  It also makes for incredibly stupid-sounding Regional names of "Fort Worth 1" and "Sacramento 2," etc.

Because there are only two Regional sites, UConn has to hit the road despite being the No. 1 overall seed.  That's one of my biggest problems with this format.  You should want more fans to be able to attend games.  Four Regionals accomplish that.  Two Regionals doesn't.  It also makes no sense that the closest Regional site for the No. 1 overall seed is 1,500 miles away!  The men have every area of the country with their four Regionals.  The women should do the same thing.

But I digress.  There are four clear No. 1 seeds and three clear No. 2 seeds.  I'm not sure who'll get that fourth No. 2 between TCU, Iowa and West Virginia, but I'm giving it to Big XII regular season champion TCU.  If it doesn't go to the Horned Frogs, I'd imagine it'll probably be Iowa.

On the other end of the spectrum, I think there are five teams in the mix for the final three spots--three of which are also in the Big XII.  Of those three, Arizona State has the strongest tournament resume, so the Sun Devils are in.  Likewise, Utah has the weakest tournament resume of the three, so the Utes are out.  That leaves BYU, Richmond and Nebraska for the last two spots in the First Four.  Richmond's had such a good season that you can't leave them out.  So, it's down to BYU vs. Nebraska.  I think BYU is the better team.  That's my rationale for choosing them.

With that, it gives the Big Ten 11 teams instead of 12, which is still the most.  The SEC has 10, but the quality is so much higher with four of them among the top eight overall seeds and five hosting (which equals the Big Ten's number).  Nine teams each for the ACC and Big 12, with the Atlantic 10 and Big East landing two teams apiece.  That's it.  Just six conferences with multiple bids.

FORT WORTH 1
16-Holy Cross at 1-Connecticut (1), 8-Iowa State vs. 9-Syracuse
13-Green Bay at 4-Ohio State, 12-BYU/Richmond vs. 5-Mississippi
14-Louisiana Tech at 3-Iowa, 6-Baylor vs. 11-Fairfield
15-Western Illinois at 2-Vanderbilt, 7-Illinois vs. 10-South Dakota State

SACRAMENTO 4
16-FDU/Howard at 1-South Carolina (4), 8-NC State vs. 9-USC
13-Idaho at 4-Maryland, 5-Kentucky vs. 12-Murray State
14-UC San Diego at 3-Oklahoma, 6-Texas Tech vs. 11-Princeton
15-High Point at 2-Duke, 7-Alabama vs. 10-Colorado

SACRAMENTO 2
16-Stephen F. Austin at 1-UCLA (2), 8-Villanova vs. 9-Tennessee
13-Colorado State at 4-Louisville, 5-Michigan State vs. 12-Gonzaga
14-Vermont at 3-West Virginia, 6-Notre Dame vs. 11-Rhode Island
15-Jacksonville at 2-LSU, 7-Oklahoma State vs. 10-Rice

FORT WORTH 3
16-Southern/Samford at 1-Texas (3), 8-Oregon vs. 9-Clemson
13-Charleston at 4-North Carolina, 5-Minnesota vs. 12-James Madison
14-Miami OH at 3-Michigan, 6-Georgia vs. 11-Virginia/Arizona State
15-Cal Baptist at 2-TCU, 7-Washington vs. 10-Virginia Tech

Last year's National Championship Game was a matchup between UConn and South Carolina.  If all of the 1-seeds make it to Phoenix, they'll meet in this year's semifinals.  UCLA and Texas, meanwhile, would square off in the other semi.  And, if the top four seeds are the last four standing, that'll be a wide-open Women's Final Four where anyone can win.

What to Do About the World Cup?

As much as we'd all like to believe sports and politics can be kept separate, sometimes it's unavoidable.  Sometimes sports and politics are so intertwined that it's impossible to keep them apart.  Especially when it comes to large-scale international sporting events.  Politics are why we've had Olympic boycotts and Olympic bans.  Politics are why "Chinese Taipei" is a thing and Israel, despite being in Asia, is a member of the European federation in every sport.  And, you can ask just about any athlete from Ukraine about how sports, politics and war have intersected over the past four years.

Unfortunately, this summer's World Cup has become one of those unavoidable intersections of sports and politics.  Iran was the first country to qualify for the World Cup.  The United States is the primary host of the World Cup, and Iran's three games are all scheduled to take place in the U.S.  The United States just started a war with Iran.  To say that "complicates" Iran's participation would be an understatement.

Iranian fans were already not allowed to travel to the World Cup because of the U.S. travel ban, but the team is qualified and still welcome.  FIFA President Gianni Infantino has reiterated that.  So has Donald Trump, who also "suggested" that Iran should consider withdrawing "for their own safety."  Which is similar to the position taken by Iran's Sports Minister, whose reasons for considering withdrawal are obviously much different.

While no decision has been made, I don't see any way in which Iran participates in the World Cup.  For a variety of reasons.  The optics are impossible to ignore.  It would be an uncomfortable situation all around, and Iranian players would be thrust right into the middle of it!  Which is something you don't want.  That's if they're even able to get the team together for training, travel to the U.S., etc., all of which are uncertain right now.

The Iranian women's team has already had very real issues.  They were in Australia for the Women's Asian Cup.  They arrived before the war started, but, by the time they were eliminated, the war had broken out, Iranian airspace was closed, and it was impossible to fly into Tehran.  They stayed in Australia for a few extra days (and five players were granted asylum) while officials tried to figure out travel arrangements before finally making their way to Malaysia.  When and how they'll make it back to Iran is anybody's guess.

FIFA likely won't require Iran to make its decision on any set timetable.  Nor should they.  However, they do need to start thinking about contingency plans.  Because more nations than just Iran will be impacted by whatever is ultimately decided.  And, for the sake of those countries, hopefully it's determined soon.  Ideally before the final qualifying tournament at the end of the month.

Four years ago, FIFA backed into lucking out with the late World Cup because COVID delays pushed the end of qualifying into March.  That's apparently a regular thing now, since the draw was made in December despite six teams not being qualified yet.  Those final qualifiers are set for the March FIFA international window, with the two intercontinental tournaments set for Mexico as World Cup tune-up events.

One of those intercontinental playoffs is set to feature Iraq playing a winner-take-all game against the winner of Suriname-Bolivia.  However, because of the instability in the Middle East, Iraq's ability to even get to Mexico for that tournament is in question.  Iraqi airspace is closed until at least April 1, making it difficult for the players and coaches to travel anywhere outside the region.  And, many of the players who are based in Iraq can't even get visas to enter Mexico right now.

With all of this uncertainty and turmoil, Iraq was already forced to cancel its scheduled training camp in Houston.  But their coach would like to take it one step further.  He's requested that FIFA postpone the playoff (at least Iraq's game).  The country is looking reach the World Cup for the first time in 40 years (which was, coincidentally, also in Mexico).  This qualifier is obviously a big deal for Iraq.  It wouldn't be right to make them play their most significant game in four decades without their first-choice squad, which he feels would be impossible if the playoff remains scheduled for March 31.

Delaying the playoff actually does make a lot of sense.  Yes, it screws up the timing tremendously and isn't ideal for Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand (the other teams in Iran's group) or France, Senegal and Norway (the other teams in the Iraq/Suriname/Bolivia group), but there are also plenty of potential positives.  Most notably, they should have a clearer picture of what's happening with Iran then, which would allow them to adjust how to handle their (assumed) withdrawal and how to replace them.

If they delay the playoff and Iran does withdraw, that's actually the most straightforward scenario.  Iraq could then move into Iran's place in Group G and the United Arab Emirates (the team Iraq beat to secure that Asian spot in the qualifier) would replace Iraq in the qualifier against Suriname/Bolivia.  That would give both Iraq and UAE adequate time to prepare while also removing the uncertainty about who'll replace Iran.

Meanwhile, if the playoff is held as scheduled and Iraq wins, then Iran withdraws after that date, what do you do then?  It would have to be another Asian team and UAE is next in line, so you'd figure they'd be the most likely replacement.  But that would raise questions of fairness with a team that had multiple chances to qualify being handed a spot at the last minute.  What would be the other option, though?  Having Iraq replace Iran and the Bolivia-Suriname winner advance regardless?  How is that fair to whoever loses in the other intercontinental playoff?

There's precedent for both options.  Denmark was added to Euro 92 as a replacement for Yugoslavia 10 days before the tournament started and ended up winning the whole thing.  Likewise, last year at the Club World Cup, Leon was removed from the tournament by FIFA after qualifying, so there was a play-in game between LA FC and Club America for the final spot on May 31 before the main tournament started on June 14.  This year's Champions League final is on May 30 and the World Cup starts on June 11, so it would be tight, but it's still doable.

June 11 is obviously three months away.  A lot can change between now and then.  But it doesn't just seem unlikely that Iran will play in the World Cup, it seems impossible.  It's not a question of if they'll withdraw, but when.  And how FIFA will replace them once that happens.