More NFL Schedule Analysis

Leading up to the NFL schedule release, people had things to say about the Arizona Cardinals having the third-hardest schedule in the league despite being terrible last year.  I found this incredibly humorous because every team's 2026 opponents were set immediately after last season ended, so it's not like this was a surprise.  I was also like, "What did you expect?"  The other three teams in their division made the playoffs last season!

The Cardinals won't be the only NFC West team with a schedule that's less than favorable next season.  Because the 49ers would certainly like a word.  San Francisco will log more travel miles than anybody else by a wide margin.  They begin the season in Melbourne and also have a game in Mexico City!  The Vikings had two international games in two different countries last season, but Ireland and England (in back-to-back weeks, so it was really just one trip) is much different than Australia and Mexico 11 weeks apart!

Then there's the Los Angeles Rams, who the NFL is really banking on being good this season.  Remember when the Jets got Aaron Rodgers, so the NFL became obsessed with giving them primetime games because of that?  Well, the 2026 Rams are getting similar treatment.  Their first three games and four of their first five are in primetime.  Then they have back-to-back primetime home games on a Wednesday and a Thursday, starting with that Thanksgiving Eve contest against the Packers.  

Teams can play a maximum of eight primetime games.  The Rams already have seven, including Christmas night in Seattle.  If either their Week 17 game against Tampa Bay or the rematch with the Seahawks in Week 18 is selected for one of the Saturday windows (which is a definite possibility), they'll play on six different days of the week this season.  They're basically the new Chiefs.

Right behind the Rams with six primetime games are the Dallas Cowboys, who always get a bunch since they're a consistent ratings generator.  And, as usual, it's not just in primetime.  America will see plenty of the Cowboys in the national doubleheader window on Sunday afternoons.  They've got four on their schedule, including the Rio de Janeiro game against Baltimore.  And, of course, the late game on Thanksgiving is traditionally the highest-rated regular season game on the NFL schedule.  This year, they play the Eagles.

Same thing with Kansas City.  The Chiefs have six primetime games and a bunch of others in national windows.  So, expect to see plenty of the Chiefs once again this season.  I know plenty of people hate-watch Kansas City.  They hate-watch Dallas, too.  Are the two of them overexposed?  Maybe.  And that certainly contributes to it (people are just sick of seeing them every week).  But they also draw, which is why the NFL likes having both teams in national broadcasts as much as possible.

It's also interesting that the Giants' first two games are both in primetime.  They have their annual Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup against the Cowboys, then are the Rams' opponent on Monday night in Week 2.  In total, they've got four, with a Thursday night game against Washington and another Monday night game in Detroit.  The Giants are a draw, so they're gonna get primetime games regardless.  But they've also been consistently bad, so you'd figure one or two.  Not four.  I guess the NFL is banking on a turnaround under John Harbaugh. 

Speaking of John Harbaugh, his former team, the Ravens, has four primetime games, but not one against Pittsburgh.  At least, not yet.  They play the Steelers in Week 18, so that could get flexed in.  But it's still odd to see that rivalry not automatically featured in a primetime window.  Baltimore also has a non-primetime marquee game against Dallas at 4:30 in Week 3 from Rio.

Baltimore's game in Buffalo, which you would've figured might be a candidate for primetime, is instead a 1:00 CBS regional game in Week 8.  It's not even a national doubleheader game!  Meanwhile, as was pointed out during the schedule release show, the Bills-Chiefs game won't be called by Jim Nantz and Tony Romo this season.  That matchup, which somehow always ends up on CBS as a national doubleheader game, will instead be on Thanksgiving night.

One of the Bills' schedule requests that the NFL granted was to open their new stadium in primetime.  I figured that meant they'd be at home on either Sunday or Monday night in Week 1.  Instead, it'll be a Week 2 Thursday night game against the Lions.  Certainly an interesting selection for their first game in the new stadium.  They're also playing in Denver on Christmas, which caps a span where they play four national games in five weeks late in the season.  So, the NFL is clearly banking on the Bills being good, too.

On the flip side of that, America was spared from seeing five teams in primetime, at least initially.  I remember when they first expanded Thursday Night Football to the full season, they guaranteed every team a Thursday night game, both so that all 32 teams could get the exposure and for the competitive reasons of everybody having to play on a short week only once.  That requirement has obviously long gone out the window.  Not only do you have the Rams playing on almost every day of the week and teams getting multiple Thursday night games, you've got the five who'll need to play their way into primetime.

A few years ago, the Houston Texans played at 1:00 on Sunday every week until they were flexed into one of the Week 18 Saturday slots.  That's essentially the schedule the New York Jets have this season.  The Jets' only non-1:00 games are on the road against the Cardinals and Chargers.  If those two didn't have to be in the late window, they probably would've gone 17-for-17.

Surprisingly, Miami doesn't have any primetime games, either.  Neither do the Raiders.  You could usually rely on both of those teams having at least a Thursday night division game.  But not this year!  The Raiders are especially surprising since they have Heisman Trophy winner/No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza.  The other two that don't have a primetime game probably could've been predicted--Tennessee and Arizona.

Even Cleveland has one!  The Browns have a Thursday night game against the Steelers in Week 4.  That week ends with Falcons-Saints in New Orleans, which led to many a double-take when the schedule came out, but Roger Goodell offered a reasonable explanation for why that game's on a Monday night.  It's to mark the 20th anniversary of the Saints' return to the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina, which was also a Monday night game against the Falcons.  If that's the reason, that's fine.  Although, it is odd that it's the middle game of three straight in primetime for Atlanta.  (I guess they're figuring get the Falcons in early while they're still somewhat good before they choke in November.)

This season won't feature a Bears-Packers game in primetime for the first time in forever.  Their first game is a FOX national doubleheader game, which makes sense.  The other is the opener of the Christmas tripleheader.  On Netflix.  Which already has plenty of Wisconsin politicians up in arms (as we found out when they put the Bears-Packers playoff game on Prime last season, the Packers' "local area" doesn't extend to the entire state, so if you're outside of Green Bay or Milwaukee, you can't watch without a subscription to the streamer).  So, that decision has clearly gone over well.

We're starting the season with a Super Bowl rematch, which is what I was hoping for when looking at the Seahawks' home opponents (and knowing the Rams and 49ers were out of the equation).  That's about as good as the NFL could've given us for the opener.  Sure, it's on Wednesday, which will be weird.  And it could very well end with the Seahawks, too, if their Week 18 game against the Rams is picked for Sunday night.  But we won't find that out for a while.