Happy Opening Day! As baseball season starts, it's time to conclude our season preview. And we end it with the division that gave us the team that had the best record in the game, as well as two other playoff teams, last season.
If you're expecting things to be much different this season, keep dreaming. Because the Dodgers aren't just the class of the NL West, they've got an argument for being the best team in the entire National League. The real battle will be for second place behind LA. I think each of the other four teams has a legitimate reason to believe second place is theirs for the taking, although those battles with each other (as well as the fact that they all have to play the Dodgers 19 times) could end up costing the NL West a wild card team.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers -- Last season they finally broke through and got back to the World Series for the first time in nearly 30 years, an eternity in Dodgertown. But, they didn't come away with a championship, so 2017 can also be viewed as somewhat of a failure. And they won't settle for anything less than a World Series return this season. Of course, the Nationals and Cubs will have something to say about that, but it's nice to be worrying about October in March. That's what happens when you have the best team in your division by a wide margin. They're simply too good NOT to win another division title. How good? There are plenty of guys coming off the Dodgers bench who would be starters on other teams, including former All*Star Yasmani Grandal and World Series hero Joc Pederson. They've also brought back Matt Kemp because it's evidently 2012 all over again. (Speaking of 2012, Andre Ethier, who's been on the team since they played in Brooklyn, is nowhere to be seen on the Dodgers' roster.) But anyway, when you have a solid lineup and the best starting pitcher of his generation, you have every reason to have high expectations. Simply winning the NL West again won't be enough. The Dodgers and their fans want to do what the Royals did. They want to turn a home Game 7 loss to a World Series triumph the next season. And they've got the talent to do it.
Projected Lineup: Chris Taylor-CF, Logan Forsythe-3B, Corey Seager-SS, Cody Bellinger-1B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Kike Hernandez-2B, Matt Kemp-LF, Austin Barnes-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 95-67
2. San Francisco Giants -- I'll be honest. Prior to Madison Bumgarner's injury, I had the Giants making the playoffs this season (it is an even year, after all). I've since adjusted that. San Francisco's not going to approach the 90 wins I originally thought when Bumgarner won't be available until June. But, I still think they'll be a lot better than most people are projecting after last year's disaster of a season. Last season was rock bottom. Everything that could go wrong did. Yes, the roster is aging. And, no, they're nowhere near as good as the Dodgers. But the Giants did a very good job of addressing the holes in their lineup with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Adam Longoria. Neither one is still in All*Star form, but they're both brand names and, more importantly, upgrades over what they had. Of course, the issue will be the pitching. Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija will both start the season on the DL, which puts quite a burden on Johnny Cueto. If San Francisco can weather the storm until their rotation is in tact, they'll be in really good shape. They might even be in the wild card conversation.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Joe Panik-2B, Andrew McCutchen-RF, Buster Posey-C, Evan Longoria-3B, Brandon Belt-1B, Hunter Pence-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Stratton, Ty Blach
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 84-78
3. Colorado Rockies -- Here's the thing about the Colorado Rockies: They're an awful lot of fun to watch. Their offense is explosive, and they're going to score a whole bunch of runs. The question, as usual, is whether they'll get enough pitching to keep pace with that exciting offense. Last year it did, and it resulted in a Wild Card Game appearance. But, one of the things about the National League last season was that the entire league was down. Not to take anything away from the Rockies. They definitely deserved their place in the postseason. I'm just saying that so many teams are improved (more so than Colorado) that it's going to be that much harder for them to get back. Of course, the Rockies are also improved. They signed Wade Davis, giving them a significant upgrade at closer. It'll be up to the rest of the pitching staff to get Davis save opportunities. Because this offense won't be kept down. They'll score 5-6 runs on most nights. The goal is to win 6-4 instead of losing 7-6. If they end up on the right end of that score often enough, they could make a postseason return. It seems like a stretch to see them finishing too much above .500, though.
Projected Lineup: Charlie Blackmon-CF, DJ LeMahieu-2B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Carlos Gonzalez-RF, Ian Desmond-LF, Trevor Story-SS, Chris Iannetta-C, Ryan McMahon-1B
Projected Rotation: Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, Kyle Freeland
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 82-80
4. San Diego Padres -- There are few teams that were more active during the offseason than the San Diego Padres. They were aggressive in free agency, which is how they got Eric Hosmer, and they brought Chase Headley back two-plus years after trading him to the Yankees. They also traded for Freddy Galvis, meaning 3/4 of their infield will be different. Of course, Wil Myers played first base last year, but he moves back to the outfield to make room for Hosmer, one of the best first basemen in the game. That moves Travis Jankowski to the bench, although I'd like to see Jankowski get semi-regular at bats. I think he has a ton of upside and brings tremendous value. San Diego is perpetually stuck in a state of rebuilding. But Hosmer is the best everyday player they've had since a young Adrian Gonzalez (not the Dodgers version). He'll instantly make San Diego a few wins better. Will he lead the Padres to the playoffs? Probably not. Will they be better than they were last season? Most likely. How much better? That's the million dollar question. But I think .500 is an attainable goal.
Projected Lineup: Jose Pirela-LF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Eric Hosmer-1B, Chase Headley-3B, Wil Myers-RF, Austin Hedges-C, Manuel Margot-CF, Carlos Asuaje-2B
Projected Rotation: Clayton Richard, Luis Perdomo, Bryan Mitchell, Colin Rea, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Arizona Diamondbacks -- The Diamondbacks are kinda like my National League version of Oakland. By that I mean every time I think they're going to be good, they end up being terrible, and every time I think they're gonna suck, they end up in the playoffs. Kinda like last season. That playoff run came out of nowhere. And I should probably be expecting the Diamondbacks to do it again. But I also think it's just as likely they'll end up out if it by the All*Star break and selling off their tradeable parts. Can I see another trip to the postseason, though? Yes. They've got a legitimate superstar in Paul Goldschmidt and a solid pitching staff anchored by Zack Greinke. So, basically what I'm saying is that I have no idea what the 2018 Diamondbacks have in store for us. They're clearly nowhere near the same league as the Dodgers, but the other four teams are so close that they could just as easily finish second or last. If all goes well, they could end up back in the playoffs. But, the teams they'll be fighting for the wild card (and within the division) have gotten better. I'm not saying it can't happen. It'll just be extremely tough.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-SS, David Peralta-LF, A.J. Pollock-CF, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Jake Lamb-3B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Alex Avila-C, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley
Closer: Brad Boxberger
Projected Record: 79-83
That gives us a National League playoff field of the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers as division champions (stop me if you've heard that before), with the Cardinals taking on the Brewers in the Wild Card Game. St. Louis wins the Wild Card Game and advances to face the Dodgers, where LA moves on to its third consecutive NLCS. They won't get a third straight NLCS showdown with the Cubs, though. Because this will finally be the year Washington wins a playoff series. In fact, I think they win two and reach their first World Series against defending champion Houston.
So, there you have it. My World Series pick is Nationals-Astros. There's been a lot of talk about the title droughts for both the Expos/Nationals franchise and the City of Washington as a whole. Well, they'll be a parade in DC come November (and I'm not talking about Trump's ridiculous military parade). If this is the last year of the Harper-Scherzer Era in Washington, it'll at least end with a championship, the Nationals' first.
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