We've been here before. In fact, we've been here in each of the past few seasons. I don't want to say the Nationals have the division already won (I said that in 2015 and they didn't even make the playoffs while the Mets ended up in the World Series), but it's clearly theirs to lose. They aren't thinking about the NL East. They're thinking bigger. Because they know this might be their last shot with this current group.
Some people have described the NL East as the "worst division in baseball," which is harsh, but I think fair. The NL East is kinda like Baseball's equivalent of the AFC East. The Nationals are the Patriots. Everyone else is the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. Part of the reason the Patriots have been so dominant over the last decade and a half has been because of how pathetic the rest of the division is. Same thing here.
Two years ago, we had the Braves intentionally sucking. Last year it was the Phillies. This year, it'll be the Marlins. Atlanta and Philadelphia may actually be somewhat decent this season, but they're nowhere near the class of the Nationals or even the Mets. As for Derek Jeter's Marlins, they'd have trouble beating good Triple A teams on a daily basis.
1. Washington Nationals -- This is the make-or-break year in Washington. Bryce Harper is a free agent after this season, so they know this might be their last best chance at that elusive pennant (I, personally, think Harper will re-sign with the Nationals, but that's a whole separate discussion). Especially after seeing the Cubs and Dodgers finally end their droughts, the time is now in DC. They've got the best pitching staff and one of the best lineups in the National League. Although, they aren't very deep, so one injury could change that. Especially an injury to one of their big three in the rotation. Max Scherzer is their ace, their work horse, and arguably the best right-handed pitcher in the game. But if he goes down, Stephen Strasburg is perfectly capable of stepping into that No. 1 spot. It's a luxury few teams have. And their bullpen, which always lagged behind their solid rotation, was addressed at the trade deadline last year. It's still not great. But it's much better than it was. The bottom line with this franchise is simple, though. Winning the division is not enough. Dusty Baker got fired after back-to-back division titles. New manager Dave Martinez's task isn't just getting to the playoffs. It's winning once they do. And if they don't this year, they really might blow it up and start over.
Projected Lineup: Michael Taylor-CF, Trae Turner-SS, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Daniel Murphy-2B, Anthony Rendon-3B, Adam Eaton-LF, Matt Wieters-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, A.J. Cole
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 93-69
2. New York Mets -- The Mets are incredibly reliant on their starting pitching. This isn't Earth-shattering news that I'm sharing with everybody. We've seen the results of it both good (2015 World Series) and bad (last season). So, if all of their pitchers stay healthy, they're in really good shape to make a playoff run. And new manager Mickey Callaway is a pitching guru, which is one of the reasons he was hired. The Mets will need to get something more than they got last year out of their offense, as well. That's why they brought Jay Bruce back. That's why they brought in Todd Frazier, too. Speaking of Todd Frazier, David Wright knows it's OK to retire, right? He's been the face of the franchise for so long that it's noble he wants to get back on the field, but it doesn't look like it's ever going to happen. The Mets aren't going to force him out, but the Frazier signing makes it clear they aren't holding out hope Wright will be an impactful member of the roster anytime soon. That lineup, by the way, is actually pretty solid, and it'll only get better when Michael Conforto comes off the DL. If enough people stay healthy, the Mets could easily be a wild card team. If not, they'll still probably finish second (which shows just how bad the other three teams are), but they won't be in the playoff discussion.
Projected Lineup: Ahmed Rosario-SS, Asdrubal Cabrera-2B, Yoenis Cespedes-LF, Jay Bruce-RF, Todd Frazier-3B, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Juan Lagares-CF
Projected Rotation: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Stephen Matz, Matt Harvey, Seth Lugo
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Philadelphia Phillies -- You want a sign that the Phillies are ready to transition out of their rebuild? How about the fact that they signed Carlos Santana early in free agency, then they were the ones who finally pounced on Jake Arrieta? Nobody expected Arrieta to end up in Philadelphia, so it was obviously quite a coup that the Phillies snagged him. They now have the ace that they haven't had since trading Cole Hamels. And Santana gives them a veteran bat to anchor a lineup built around good young stars Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco. They're still a year or two away from being totally relevant again. But they'll be one of the most improved teams in baseball this season. And, with the number of games they play against the Braves and Marlins each season, finishing around .500 is possible. Realistic? Probably not. They'll definitely be decent, though. Especially with Arrieta pitching every fifth day.
Projected Lineup: Cesar Hernandez-2B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Rhys Hoskins-LF, Carlos Santana-1B, Maikel Franco-3B, Odubel Herrera-CF, Nick Williams-RF, Jorge Alfaro-C
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 76-86
4. Atlanta Braves -- Last year's Braves actually resembled a professional baseball team. And this year they'll likely add a few more wins to the 72 they had last season. They're moving in the right direction, and they pulled off a major steal when they got Charlie Culberson from the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp deal. Except their young guys need a bit more seasoning, so contending in 2018 probably isn't in the cards. Instead, they'll likely be battling the Phillies for third place (although I've seen some predictions that have the Braves finishing second). I give Philadelphia the slight edge because of the Santana and Arrieta additions, but Atlanta's had its own ace in Julio Teheran for a few seasons. They've kept him around waiting for the time they'll once again be contenders, but should they ever decide to move him, he'll be a hot commodity. Same thing with Freddie Freeman, who's having his own Joey Vottoesque career. At least that ridiculous experiment of playing him at third base is over. And, with former No. 1 overall pick and career Brave Chipper Jones entering the Hall of Fame this year, the time seems appropriate to wonder if another former No. 1 overall pick, Dansby Swanson, can truly live up to the potential the Braves see in him or if he's another bust.
Projected Lineup: Ender Inciarte-CF, Ozzie Albies-2B, Freddie Freeman-1B, Nick Markakis-RF, Tyler Flowers-C, Preston Tucker-LF, Rio Ruiz-3B, Dansby Swanson-SS
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Mike Folytnewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Miami Marlins -- Does anyone else think that if Derek Jeter and Don Mattingly were to activate themselves, they'd be the best players on the team? They didn't trade the entire roster during the offseason. It just felt like it. Because anyone on the Marlins you've ever heard of is now no longer on the Marlins. It got so bad that even Starlin Castro, who they got from the Yankees for Giancarlo Stanton, asked to be traded...before even playing a game for the franchise! This is by far the worst team in baseball, and it's really not even that close. They know it, too. It'll be a shock if they don't lose 100-plus games. I will say this, though. Their offense won't be that God awful. They didn't trade everyone. J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour are still there, and they've actually added a couple pieces in Starlin Castro and Cameron Maybin. Their pitching staff, however, is another story. Brad Ziegler's a decent closer, but he's not gonna have many opportunities to save games.
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin-RF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Starlin Castro-2B, Justin Bour-1B, Derek Dietrich-LF, Brian Anderson-3B, Lewis Brinson-CF, Miguel Rojas-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Urena, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, Jacob Turner
Closer: Brad Ziegler
Projected Record: 56-106
While it'll be a surprise to see someone other than the Nationals at the top or the Marlins at the bottom, positions 2-4 are almost interchangeable. One injury, especially an extended one to a key player, could change everything. Regardless, Washington is far and away the class of the division. If not the entire National League.
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