It's been an interesting year in college basketball to say the least. It started with a scandal that left a dark cloud over the entire season., and there hasn't been a single dominant team to capture our attention. Trae Young has, but we probably aren't going to see him in the Tournament (even though Oklahoma was arguably the best team in the country in mid-January).
But, that means we're probably in store for a great NCAA Tournament. There's roughly a dozen teams that don't just have legitimate Final Four aspirations. I think any of them could win it. This tournament is going to be so wide open that I really don't think seeds will matter at all. It's really all about the matchups.
Virginia, Villanova and Kansas have all but locked up No. 1 seeds, with the fourth likely to go to either Xavier or Duke. I thought it was Duke's for the taking...until they lost to North Carolina in the ACC Semifinals. Which puts the Musketeers back in the driver's seat for that last 1-seed. Although, they'll likely get shipped out west, where Arizona and Gonzaga will likely be waiting without having to travel.
The top overall seed will almost certainly be Virginia, which they should be based on their body of work. The Cavaliers likely won't be favored to win the title, though. In fact, I'd be more surprised if they make the Final Four than if they don't. Virginia's a very good regular season team. But their style of play makes them vulnerable come tourney time. Which I think makes them vulnerable.
We're also going to see some new blood in the field and some familiar faces miss out. Wisconsin is below .500 on the season, so their tournament streak is over. Louisville and Syracuse, meanwhile, are bubble teams that will likely end up on the outside looking in (there's no way that Louisville makes the tournament after the scandal).
Speaking of the bubble, Middle Tennessee's loss in the Conference USA Tournament definitely shook it up. Because I don't see how the Blue Raiders aren't in the field (although I've said this in the past about teams that ended up in the NIT). Same with Nevada, who got upset in the Mountain West Tournament. Saint Mary's might be the only other team outside of the top eight conferences with a shot at making the field.
As it is, I've got teams from 11 different conference earning at-large bids. The SEC had a really good year, and I've got them leading the way with eight NCAA teams, followed by seven each from the ACC in Big 12, then the Big East with six. Here's all 68:
SOUTH
Charlotte: 1-Virginia (1) vs. 16-LIU Brooklyn/Texas Southern, 8-Arkansas vs. 9-Creighton
San Diego: 4-West Virginia vs. 13-Montana, 5-Wichita State vs. 12-Western Kentucky
Wichita: 3-Kentucky vs. 14-UNC Greensboro, 6-Miami vs. 11-Loyola Chicago
Nashville: 2-Purdue vs. 15-Lipscomb, 7-TCU vs. 10-Butler
WEST
Detroit: 1-Xavier (4) vs. 16-Harvard, 8-Missouri vs. 9-Kansas State
Boise: 4-Gonzaga vs. 13-Murray State, 5-Ohio State vs. 12-Toledo
San Diego: 3-Arizona vs. 14-Georgia State, 6-Florida vs. 11-Texas/Middle Tennessee
Charlotte: 2-Duke vs. 15-UMBC, 7-Providence vs. 10-Nevada
EAST
Pittsburgh: 1-Villanova (2) vs. 16-UC Irvine/Radford, 8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Alabama
Boise: 4-Michigan State vs. 13-South Dakota State, 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-New Mexico State
Dallas: 3-Tennessee vs. 14-Iona, 6-Houston vs. 11-Saint Mary's
Nashville: 2-North Carolina vs. 15-Wright State, 7-USC vs. 10-St. Bonaventure
MIDWEST
Wichita: 1-Kansas (3) vs. 16-Hampton, 8-Rhode Island vs. 9-UCLA
Dallas: 4-Auburn vs. 13-Charleston, 5-Clemson vs. 12-Oklahoma State/Arizona State
Detroit: 3-Michigan vs. 14-Bucknell, 6-Seton Hall vs. 11-New Mexico
Pittsburgh: 2-Cincinnati vs. 15-Southeast Louisiana, 7-NC State vs. 10-Texas A&M
Final Four: South vs. West, East vs. Midwest
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