Yesterday I unveiled my men's NCAA Tournament bracket. Today, it's the women's turn. And, stop me if you've heard this before, UConn is the team to beat. Once again, the Huskies rolled through the regular season undefeated. Once again, they'll be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. And once again, they'll be favored to win their 12th National Championship.
Mississippi State, the team that beat UConn in last year's Final Four, is a clear No. 2. They were also undefeated until a loss to South Carolina (the defending National Champions) in the SEC Championship Game. Louisville and Notre Dame, meanwhile, appear to have the other two 1-seeds on lockdown. The only question is which order the two ACC teams will be in the overall seedings (meaning which one ends up getting shipped out west). Louisville won the ACC Tournament, so I'll give them the nod for both the Lexington Regional and the UConn avoidance.
So, that means I've got my Final Four matchups as Albany (UConn) vs. Spokane (Notre Dame) and Kansas City (Mississippi State) vs. Lexington (Louisville). The real drama will come in when it comes to assigning the 2-seeds. All of those seem obvious, too, but where they get sent could end up making a big difference.
Because, unlike the men's tournament, this women's field is very top-heavy (and not just because the top four seeds in each region host the first two rounds). It'd be a surprise if a team seeded lower than third getting to Columbus (frankly, I'd even be surprised to see a 3-seed make it). Which means other top teams like Baylor and South Carolina will be hoping for a favorable regional location more than anything else. And by "favorable location," of course, I mean staying out of Albany.
"Top-heavy" also refers to the number of bids coming out of the top conferences. The SEC, as usual, can expect to be well-represented. I've got even, including four that will be at home on the opening weekend. My other top-four seeds (which means first- and second-round home games) include a pair of additional ACC teams, three from the Big 12 and three from the Pac-12. That accounts for 14 of the 16, with UConn and Ohio State the other two.
As for my full bracket, here it is:
ALBANY
16-Saint Francis PA at 1-Connecticut (1); 8-George Washington vs. 9-Minnesota
13-Princeton at 4-Florida State; 5-Georgia vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
14-Little Rock at 3-Ohio State; 6-Duke vs. 11-Western Kentucky
15-Stephen F. Austin at 2-Texas; 7-Arizona State vs. 10-Duquesne
SPOKANE
16-North Carolina A&T at 1-Notre Dame (4); 8-Michigan vs. 9-California
13-Drake at 4-Texas A&M; 5-South Florida vs. 12-Quinnipiac
14-Boise State at 3-Tennessee; 6-Iowa vs. 11-South Dakota State
15-Seattle at 2-Oregon; 7-Dayton vs. 10-Syracuse
KANSAS CITY
16-Grambling at 1-Mississippi State (2); 8-Miami vs. 9-Marquette
13-American at 4-Stanford; 5-Maryland vs. 12-Belmont
14-Elon at 3-NC State; 6-LSU vs. 11-Rutgers
15-Liberty at 2-Baylor; 7-Oregon State vs. 10-Green Bay
LEXINGTON
16-UC Davis at 1-Louisville (3); 8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Central Michigan
13-Northern Colorado at 4-UCLA; 5-Missouri vs. 12-Gonzaga
14-Mercer at 3-West Virginia; 6-DePaul vs. 11-Nebraska
15-Maine at 2-South Carolina; 7-Virginia vs. 10-Villanova
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