Over the past few seasons, the AL Central has emerged as one of the top divisions in baseball. Better than the AL East even. From the Tigers' sustained run of success to the Royals' back-to-back World Series appearances (and 2015 championship) to the Indians reaching Game 7 of the World Series, then posting the best record in the AL last season, it's been a good run.
That run looks like it's probably going to end in 2018, though. Because the East and West are significantly stronger top to bottom. And the Central teams are definitely weaker. The Royals were sold off for parts (which we all knew was going to happen as soon as they all became free agents), the Tigers have gone into a complete rebuild, and the White Sox are still in the midst of theirs. Which leaves the Indians and Twins, both playoff teams last season, to battle it out for the division title.
This year, there looks to be only one spot available. Although, if Cleveland and Minnesota both beat up on the other three enough, whoever finishes second could snag the second wild card. Either way, a win total in the high-80s is likely going to be enough to get it done in the AL Central.
1. Cleveland Indians -- After two really good seasons with nothing to show for it, the Indians are hoping the third time's the charm. They've definitely got the talent to do it, too. While not as strong as the Yankees or Astros (or even the Red Sox), the Indians are still definitely the class of the AL Central. It starts with their ridiculous starting rotation, which is among the best in the game. Then there's the 1-2 punch of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in the bullpen. Meanwhile, they had a player finish third in MVP voting last season, and he isn't even their best player! Jason Kipnis moved to center field against the Yankees in the playoffs because Jose Ramirez was at second, but with Ramirez moving back to third, Kipnis will no longer be out of position. They're hoping to actually get a full season out of Michael Brantley, too. He made the All*Star Team last season before missing basically the entire second half and serving exclusively as a pinch hitter in the playoffs. Cleveland lost Carlos Santana in free agency, but they're replacing him with Yonder Alonso, which is pretty much a wash offensively. They can thump. They just need to stay healthy. If they do, their combination of hitting and pitching will result in a third straight postseason appearance.
Projected Lineup: Jason Kipnis-2B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Jose Ramirez-3B, Michael Brantley-LF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Yonder Alonso-1B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF, Roberto Perez-C, Bradley Zimmer-CF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 88-74
2. Minnesota Twins -- From 100 losses in 2016 to the playoffs in 2017. Which version of the Twins is the real one? Was that incredible one-year turnaround the sign that the Twins will be contenders for the long run? I think so. They've got a lot of young talent, and they aren't going away. As long as there isn't any playoff hangover, Minnesota should be right in the thick of it again this season. They'll fight the Indians tooth and nail all year. However, I give Cleveland the slight edge because of the Indians' superior pitching. Don't sleep on the Twins, though. Too many teams did last year (especially after they threw up the white flag at the deadline, then somehow got better) and, before anyone knew it, Minnesota had a clear path to the playoffs. Their path isn't quite as clear this season, mainly because the division will likely be their only path. But if they hit the way they're capable of and get solid pitching, they'll be in contention all season. And if everything goes right, they just might edge the Indians for the division title
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Miguel Sano-3B, Logan Morrison-DH, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Jason Castro-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Phil Hughes
Closer: Fernando Rodney
Projected Record: 85-77
3. Kansas City Royals -- It was a nice little story for a while, but we knew it had to end once free agency hit. Well, free agency arrived, and the dismantling of the Royals began. Lorenzo Cain is in Milwaukee and Eric Hosmer (the best player on the team) is in San Diego. Mike Moustakas is back, on a one-year deal that he signed late because he didn't get any better offers. So, this will likely be his final season in Kansas City. Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez are still around (for now), but their replacements for Hosmer and Cain (Lucas Duda and Jon Jay) are both significant downgrades. They were also relying a lot on Jorge Bonifacio, who's suspended for the first 80 games. Meanwhile, their pitching staff took a hit when Jason Vargas left as a free agent. And you're definitely not going to make the playoffs with a rotation headed by Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy. Not when you're going up against Indians' and Twins' lineups regularly. They're definitely better than both the White Sox and Tigers, though.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Jon Jay-CF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Lucas Duda-1B, Alex Gordon-LF, Salvador Perez-C, Jorge Soler-DH, Whit Merrifield-2B, Paulo Orlando-RF
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, Jakob Junis
Closer: Kelvin Herrera
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Chicago White Sox -- The White Sox are an interesting bunch. They went into a rebuild last season, but still had plenty of serviceable players, which made them ideal trade partners at the deadline. It could be the same thing this year with Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and even James Shields. All of these moves have given them a really good young core group, though. With Yoan Moncada as the centerpiece. The big prize in the Chris Sale trade, he showed up in Chicago to stay late last season, playing in 54 games. Throw in Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico and Tyler Saladino, and you've got a team that could definitely be competitive in a year or two. As for being competitive in 2018...that seems unlikely. They simply aren't good enough, especially on the pitching side. James Shields is literally the only pitcher on the White Sox anyone has ever heard of. Well, him and Joakim Soria, who looks like he'll get another shot as a closer after spending the last two years as a setup man in Kansas City.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Yoan Moncada-2B, Jose Abreu-1B, Avisail Garcia-RF, Matt Davidson-3B, Tyler Saladino-DH, Nicky Delmonico-LF, Adam Engel-CF, Welington Castillo-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon
Closer: Joakim Soria
Projected Record: 73-89
5. Detroit Tigers -- Detroit is basically down to just Miguel Cabrera, who's a shell of his former self. The Tigers knew this time was coming, which is why they traded J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander at the end of last season. It's gonna take a few years for them to work their way back to the top of the division, but they won't be nearly as bad as they were last season, when injuries really took their toll. And, even without Verlander, they still have a solid rotation anchored by Michael Fulmer and Jordan Zimmermann. Plus, they still have Miggy and Victor Martinez. Cabrera probably won't return to his MVP form, but he's still a lethal bat in the middle of the lineup. The thing I'm most curious about regarding the Tigers, though, is how well Nicholas Castellanos transitions to right field. The move was to open up third base for Jeimer Candelario, one of the many new faces we'll see in Detroit this season, as the Tigers look to at least keep their record respectable in Ron Gardenhire's first season as manager.
Projected Lineup: Dixon Machado-2B, Leonys Martin-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Nicholas Castellanos-RF, Mikie Mahtook-LF, Jeimer Candelario-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Fulmer, Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Matthew Boyd
Closer: Shane Greene
Projected Record: 67-95
With the White Sox and Tigers in the midst of rebuilds and Kansas City caught somewhere in the middle, it'll be a surprise if the division title goes somewhere other than Cleveland or Minnesota. Although, no one thought that much of the Twins heading into last season, so you never know. Especially in the division known for surprises.
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