No division benefited more from the breakup of the Marlins and Royals than the NL Central. The Cardinals and Brewers are, on paper, two of the most improved teams in the game heading into 2018. Which means the division looks like it might actually be competitive after two years of Cubs domination.
Make no mistake. Milwaukee and St. Louis are nowhere near the Cubs' level. But they're among that group of mid-level teams who you can expect to see in the wild card hunt. In fact, I've got all three NL Central teams making the playoffs.
As for the Pirates and Reds, not so much. Pittsburgh had that nice little run. But they threw up the white flag on this season before it even began with the McCutchen and Cole trades (and the pursuit of others). And Joey Votto will spend another season in Baseball Purgatory (aka Cincinnati). It could be worse, though. He could be stuck on the Marlins.
1. Chicago Cubs -- Whatever they did last season really wasn't going to matter one bit after the euphoria of 2016. And they definitely had some World Series hangover for the first half of the season before getting their acts together and beating the Nationals in the Division Series. This year they won't be able to get away with that. For a couple reasons. One, the rest of the division is much stronger than it was a year ago. Two, the Cubs aren't as strong. Sure, they've still got all of the key players from the teams that made the last three NLCSes, plus Ben Zobrist on the bench (there's no way Zobrist can be happy with that situation, either). And they won the Yu Darvish sweepstakes, which is basically an even trade for the departed Jake Arrieta. I wonder what type of effect his World Series failures will have on Darvish, though. Personally, I think he'll be fine in Chicago. Jon Lester's the "Man," so he doesn't need to be. And slotting him in at No. 3 in the rotation gives the Cubs a deeper group of starters than most teams in the National League. Simply put, they have too much talent not to make the playoffs again. How far they'll advance once they get there, though? That's a different question.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Willson Contreras-C, Jayson Heyward-RF, Addison Russell-SS, Javier Baez-2B
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood
Closer: Brandon Morrow
Projected Record: 92-70
2. St. Louis Cardinals -- It's been two years since the Cardinals made the playoffs, which is entirely too long in their eyes. Don't expect that streak to reach three straight seasons. The Cardinals could even challenge the Cubs at the top of the NL Central. Although, this year, they're gonna do things a little differently. They've actually got players you've heard of now! And I'm including Tommy Pham in that group. St. Louis loves him, and they think he's going to be a star. They also added a star to the outfield in Marcell Ozuna. Not a bad consolation prize after a certain more well-known former Marlins outfielder turned them down. Ozuna gives their offense the added pop that Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuk certainly didn't bring. Pitching-wise, they're fine...for now. They're solid at the top with Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright (provided he's healthy), but it definitely wouldn't hurt them to get deeper in the rotation. A lefty starter wouldn't hurt, either. Otherwise, I don't think a long postseason run is in the Cards (pardon the pun). But do they have enough to, at the very least, appear in the wild card game? Absolutely.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Paul DeJong-SS, Matt Carpenter-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Tommy Pham-CF, Jedd Gyorko-3B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 88-74 (Wild Card)
3. Milwaukee Brewers -- A Cardinals return to the playoffs probably isn't that much of a stretch. A Brewers return, on the other hand, would be a little more unexpected. It shouldn't be, though. Because Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in baseball. On the offensive end, at least. Two-thirds of their outfield is new. They liberated Christian Yelich from Miami after snagging Lorenzo Cain as a free agent. Although, that puts them in a weird situation where Ryan Braun is going to move to first base in order to make room for them...except first base is the position Eric Thames plays. This is a National League team we're talking about, so no DH, which means somebody has to sit. It does mean that they'll have a really good pinch-hitting option every game, though. Do they have the pitching to match what should be a solid lineup? No. That might be the only thing that holds them back. But if the pitching is good enough, the Brewers could/should be able to score enough runs to win a bunch of games. And they just might snag a wild card in the process.
Projected Lineup: Eric Sogard-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Ryan Braun-1B, Travis Shaw-3B, Domingo Santana-RF, Manny Pina-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, Jimmy Nelson
Closer: Corey Knebel
Projected Record: 86-76 (Wild Card)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Moving Andrew McCutchen wasn't really a surprise, but moving Gerrit Cole certainly was. And it was a clear sign that the Pirates have turned the page. Pittsburgh won't be terrible. Not with guys like Starling Marte (make no mistake, this is his team now) and Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison (although Harrison will be continually be mentioned as trade bait until he actually is). But they won't be good, either. They're kinda stuck in the middle, and in this division they're the fourth-best team. Which is why I don't think they'll be able to crack .500 (which they would in the NL East). I do think they're on their way back to being a playoff team, though. It just won't be this year. Offensively, they're solid, but not overly strong. On the mound, though, they'll really feel the impact of no longer having Gerrit Cole. Because that puts a lot of pressure on Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon. And, keep in mind, Nova's in the No. 1 spot, which means he'll regularly go against the Jon Lesters and Carlos Martinezes of the division. Not to mention the Scherzers and Kershaws and Syndergaards of the rest of the NL. In other words, they'll need to get a lot of wins from the back end of the rotation, which I'm not sure they will.
Projected Lineup: Josh Harrison-2B, Jordy Mercer-SS, Starling Marte-CF, Gregory Polanco-RF, Josh Bell-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Colin Moran-3B
Projected Rotation: Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, Joe Musgrove
Closer: Felipe Rivero
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Cincinnati Reds -- I really thought it was funny how many people were flipping out about Joey Votto not winning MVP last year. For starters, Stanton deserved to win. Second, did anyone realize Votto had that good a season in 2017? Of course not. Because Cincinnati hasn't been relevant in a few years. And don't expect that to change this year. Because, frankly, outside of Votto, there isn't much to see here. Especially since Zack Cozart, their second-best player, is now in Anaheim. They'll hit a lot of home runs, just like they always do (it's nicknamed the Great American Small Park for a reason). But they'll also give up a lot. As for Votto, yes, you can probably expect an average over .310 and somewhere around 30 home runs. It won't stop the Reds from finishing last, though. Their pitching staff simply isn't strong enough. Homer Bailey deserves the Opening Day start for his decade of service and all he's meant to the franchise, but he's no higher than a No. 3 on any other team. The bullpen is a mess. Although, I do like closer Raisel Iglesias. The Reds are nowhere near the worst team in the National League. But in a competitive Central Division, they are. A realistic goal for them this season is finishing fourth instead of last.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Jose Peraza-SS, Joey Votto-1B, Adam Duvall-LF, Scott Schebler-RF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Scooter Gennett-2B, Tucker Barnhart-C
Projected Rotation: Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafini, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 71-91
So, that's five out of six divisions down. Tomorrow we wrap it up with the NL West, as well as the World Series pick. Teams have departed Florida and Arizona for their first games. Opening Day is so close I can taste it!
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