MLB 2024 (NL East)

The NL East is very similar to the NL West in one major regard.  The Braves, like the Dodgers, are unfairly good.  In fact, if there's any team in the National League who can give the Dodgers a run for their money as the "best team," it's Atlanta.  The Phillies, meanwhile, would be the clear favorites if they played in any other division (except maybe the NL West).

I also give the Phillies and Mets credit.  They've got the resources to try and spend their way to a division title.  They've both tried it, in fact, and it didn't work.  Now they're taking a smarter approach.  They know the Braves are better than them and have the division title on lockdown.  So, why go after the division when they just need to make the playoffs?  Which means they just need to be one of the six best teams in the NL.

It's not crazy to think all three can make the playoffs.  Frankly, it would be a shock to not see at least the Braves and Phillies.  They're probably the second- and third-best teams in the National League.  The Mets are more of a question mark.  They have the talent, but they're also the Mets.  Can they make the playoffs?  Absolutely!  Can they be so far under .500 that they sell off their parts at the deadline?  Also absolutely.

Then there are the Marlins and Nationals.  Miami was the third NL East team in the playoffs last season, losing to the Phillies in the Wild Card Series.  Was that a one-year anomaly or the start of something?  (Don't forget, they also made the playoffs in 2020.)  Washington, meanwhile, is still in the midst of a rebuild.

1. Atlanta Braves: Atlanta's dynasty in the 90s was built around its three Hall of Fame starting pitchers.  While they don't have a Maddux, Glavine and/or Smoltz in their current rotation, they have ridiculous starting pitching depth that other teams can only envy.  The Braves have seven legit starters, two of whom (Bryce Elder & A.J. Smith-Shawver) are starting the season at Triple A.  Then they've got Raisel Iglesias waiting at the end of games.

Their offense ain't to shabby either.  Atlanta has the advantage over the Dodgers on the mound, and at the plate, it's close.  Everybody's locked up to long-term deals, too, so they didn't need to make many offseason moves on the offensive side, but they did anyway.  They brought back Adam Duvall to be their fourth outfielder, while they traded for Jarred Kelenic to be their new left fielder.  Kelenic has never lived up to the potential that made him a Top 10 pick, but he had a great Spring and doesn't need to be "The Man."  Maybe a change of scenery is what he needed.
Projected Lineup: Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Ozzie Albies-2B, Matt Olson-1B, Austin Riley-3B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Sean Murphy-C, Orlando Arcia-SS, Jarred Kelenic-LF, Michael Harris II-CF
Projected Rotation: Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 95-67

2. Philadelphia Phillies: After winning the pennant in 2022, the Phillies might've been even better last season, even though it didn't end in a return trip to the World Series.  One of the things they did last season was out of necessity.  They moved Bryce Harper to first base.  Well, as it turns out, that went so well, they decided to make it permanent.  That also freed up the DH spot for Kyle Schwarber, which improves their defense since they won't have to stick him in left field anymore.

They also kept their 1-2 of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler together.  Those two will need to stay healthy for them to have any prayer of finishing ahead of the Braves (which, again, I'm not even sure they particularly care about).  I also really like their bullpen, even without new Oriole Craig Kimbrel.  Really, though, the Phillies just need to not screw up and they'll get back to the playoffs.  Even if they have to deal with an injury or two, they'll overcome it or, worst case, make a trade at the deadline.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-1B, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Nick Castellanos-RF, Alec Bohm-3B, Brandon Marsh-LF, Bryson Stott-2B, Johan Rojas-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull
Closer: Gregory Soto
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)

3. New York Mets: Last year, the Mets were all-in at the beginning of the season.  They had a rotation headlined by future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  Those two both pitched in the postseason last season...against each other...in the ALCS.  The Mets cashed in their chips at midseason and started looking ahead to this year, where they're taking a new approach.  They didn't try to outspend teams this winter.  Instead, they were more measured and looked for players who fit what new manager Carlos Mendoza wants to do.  And in that area, they were successful.

Two of their additions came over from across town--Luis Severino and Harrison Bader.  Severino was an All*Star before his Yankees career fizzled out at the end, but he's a great low risk/high reward option who was worth taking a one-year flier.  They also added Sean Manaea, another former All*Star to the rotation.  They don't have the star power of Verlander and Scherzer.  But they're also considerably more affordable.  And, don't forget, closer Edwin Diaz is back after missing last season following his World Baseball Classic injury.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Nimmo-LF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Starling Marte-RF, Mark Vientos-DH, Francisco Alvarez-C, Brett Baty-3B, Harrison Bader-CF, Jeff McNeil-2B
Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 84-78

4. Miami Marlins: Can the Marlins do it again?  This season, they won't sneak up on anybody.  But did that taste of the postseason set this team on a new path?  Unfortunately, they'll be without their ace Sandy Alcantara all year, so that severely complicates things for the Marlins.  They simply don't have the pitching depth to be without Alcantara for even a short period, let alone the entire season!  That's why I think we'll see the Marlins take a step back this year.  Even though they're actually in pretty good shape offensively, they simply don't have the pitching.

Luis Arraez came over in a trade with the Twins last season and followed up his tremendous 2022 in Minnesota with an outstanding season for the Marlins.  Now alongside him will be Tim Anderson, who the White Sox decided to let walk in free agency.  That's a formidable middle, both in the infield and the lineup.  Josh Bell also returns after coming over from Cleveland at the deadline last season.  He's been on four different teams since the start of 2022, so how will the stability of a second season in Miami impact his production?  It was great to see them in the playoffs last year.  To think they can return might be a little optimistic.  I'm not even sure they finish .500.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Luis Arraez-2B, Josh Bell-1B, Avisail Garcia-DH, Jake Burger-3B, Jesus Sanchez-RF, Bryan de la Cruz-LF, Nick Fortes-C, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, Ryan Weathers
Closer: Tanner Scott
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Washington Nationals: When the Nationals signed Joey Gallo, the jokes came fast and furious.  Although, I think Washington might be the perfect place for him to try and resurrect his career.  There's no pressure to win there at all, so, if he struggles, it doesn't really make much of a difference to the team's success.  And if he doesn't, then it's mission accomplished for him, and the Nationals can either keep him or convert him into draft picks by sending him off to a contender in July.  Draft picks that can be used to build their next championship-caliber team when they're ready to contend again in a few years.

That strategy has already worked for the Nationals once, so who's to say it won't again?  They won't be as bad as the pre-Strasburg, pre-Harper teams when the franchise arrived in D.C. two decades ago.  They just won't be particularly good, either.  A 100-loss season could definitely be on the horizon.  They aren't the worst team in the National League.  That's the Rockies.  But the Nationals don't stand a chance in this division and they know that.
Projected Lineup: Victor Robles-CF, Nick Senzel-3B, Joey Meneses-DH, Lane Thomas-RF, Stone Garrett-LF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Joey Gallo-1B, CJ Abrams-SS, Luis Garcia Jr.-2B
Projected Rotation: Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Mackenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin
Closer: Hunter Harvey
Projected Record: 60-102