Joe (Men's) Bracketology, 2024

When I first started putting my "final" bracket together last night, it didn't look like this.  Purdue was my No. 1 overall seed.  They no longer are.  Fortunately, the 1- and 2-seeds all seem to be pretty set, so all I had to do there was switch which part of the bracket each region was.  I didn't actually have to move any teams around or take anybody out who I had in.

Then Arizona and Washington State both lost in the Pac-12 semis.  I had Colorado in the field, but in the First Four.  They can't go to Dayton if they're a conference champion, though, which means somebody had to get dropped into the First Four to make room for Colorado/Oregon as an AQ.  Then New Mexico, who I didn't even have making the tournament, won the Mountain West Tournament, which did knock somebody out.  Same with NC State winning five games in five days to pull off the shocker in the ACC.  Sorry, Mississippi State and South Florida!

The upsets in the Pac-12 and Mountain West were also bad news for the mid-major bubble teams.  Because I don't see any way either Indiana State OR Richmond gets in now.  Especially now that either UAB or Temple is getting the American's AQ.  So, that's a fourth team losing its spot entirely and another being relegated to the First Four because of conference tournament upsets.

Every other conference tournament remaining is either a one-bid league or both teams are already safely in, so that shouldn't impact who gets into the field.  Seedings?  Sure!  But all the bids have already been stolen.  It's just a matter of who steals them.

Purdue losing did have a bit of an impact on my bracket, but it was very minor.  As the No. 1 overall seed, I had the Boilermakers facing a First Four winner.  Now that they're not, that TBA 16-seed goes to Brooklyn to face UConn instead.  Which could actually be a good thing for Purdue.  They've lost to small schools from New Jersey (Saint Peter's and FDU) in the last two years.  New Jersey-adjacent Wagner figures to be headed to Dayton.  This way, Purdue can avoid them.  (And maybe the committee will throw them a bone and also keep Seton Hall and Saint Peter's away!)

Heading into Championship Week, the only real question was who would get the fourth 1-seed.  That was answered pretty quickly when Tennessee lost.  Although, with UConn in the East, Houston in the South and Purdue in the Midwest already set, whoever got the last 1-seed was getting sent out West regardless...and Arizona will be the No. 2 seed in the West, where the Regional is in Los Angeles!  So, ending up as a 2-seed might've put Tennessee in a better position (although, now they have to play UConn in Boston, so maybe not).

That's always an element of the bracket that I find fascinating.  They try to keep teams close to home, but it doesn't always work out in a nice, clean way.  Somebody has to travel regardless.  That's especially true this year since a majority of the first weekend sites are in the same general area of the country, and they also can't put Creighton in Omaha or Gonzaga in Spokane!

It's also interesting to see which lower-seeded teams end up having less travel.  BYU, for example, will probably be a 5-seed.  Do you send them to Salt Lake City, where they'll effectively have home-court advantage against a 4-seed in the second round?  (It's also worth noting that Salt Lake City is a Thursday/Saturday site, so it's one of only four BYU can go to!)  Likewise, do you put Washington State in Spokane as a 5-seed against a 4-seed that will definitely be traveling?

Before moving on to the bracket, a note on my bubble teams.  I had Seton Hall safely in, but those AQ bid-stealers has pushed them down to the point where I've got them headed to Dayton against Oklahoma, whose bye went to the Pac-12 winner.  The other First Four game is Michigan State, who can thank NC State for their extra NCAA Tournament game, against Texas A&M, who not only got in, but jumped over a couple teams, with that SEC Tournament run.

And with that, it's bracket time.  Since UConn's my No. 1 overall seed, that means it's East vs. West and South vs. Midwest in the Final Four.  Not that it makes any difference, but I have Houston as No. 2 overall (despite getting blown out by Iowa State!), with Purdue dropping to No. 3 overall.  That order could easily be reversed, though.  Either way, the defending National Champions are the clear No. 1 heading into the Big Dance.

EAST (Boston)
Brooklyn: 1-Connecticut (1) vs. 16-Wagner/Montana State, 8-Nebraska vs. 9-Texas
Omaha: 5-South Carolina vs. 12-VCU, 4-Kansas vs. 13-McNeese State
Pittsburgh: 6-Saint Mary's vs. 11-Oklahoma/Seton Hall, 3-Duke vs. 14-Akron
Memphis: 7-Nevada vs. 10-Colorado, 2-Tennessee vs. 15-Saint Peter's

WEST (Los Angeles)
Charlotte: 1-North Carolina (4) vs. 16-Stetson/Howard, 8-Boise State vs. 9-Northwestern
Pittsburgh: 5-BYU vs. 12-Grand Canyon, 4-Auburn vs. 13-UAB
Spokane: 6-Wisconsin vs. 11-New Mexico, 3-Baylor vs. 14-Colgate
Salt Lake City: 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-St. John's, 2-Arizona vs. 15-South Dakota State

SOUTH (Dallas)
Memphis: 1-Houston (2) vs. 16-Grambling, 8-Colorado State vs. 9-Drake
Brooklyn: 5-Washington State vs. 12-Vermont, 4-Illinois vs. 13-Yale
Charlotte: 6-San Diego State vs. 11-James Madison, 3-Kentucky vs. 14-Morehead State
Indianapolis: 7-Clemson vs. 10-TCU, 2-Marquette vs. 15-Oakland

MIDWEST (Detroit)
Indianapolis: 1-Purdue (3) vs. 16-Longwood, 8-Dayton vs. 9-Florida Atlantic
Spokane: 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-Samford, 4-Alabama vs. 13-Charleston
Salt Lake City: 6-Utah State vs. 11-Michigan State/Texas A&M, 3-Creighton vs. 14-Western Kentucky
Omaha: 7-Florida vs. 10-NC State, 2-Iowa State vs. 15-UC Davis

As for the conference breakdown, the Big 12 has been the strongest basketball conference in the country for the past few seasons, and that was the case once again this year.  I've got nine Big 12 teams in the field, including conference newcomers Houston and BYU (as well as soon-to-be Big 12 members Arizona and Colorado).  The SEC is next with seven, followed by the Big Ten and Mountain West with six each and the Big East with five.  The ACC gets four and the Pac-12 three, while the last three at-large bids go to the American, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference.

They call it March Madness for a reason.  We saw plenty of madness during Championship Week.  You can bet even more is in store once the Big Dance begins.  If these conference tournaments are any indication, we've got a heck of an NCAA Tournament coming up!