MLB 2024 (AL Central)

The AL Central is probably the worst division in baseball.  In fact, there's no probably about it.  The AL Central IS the worst division in baseball.  Which means we're most likely looking at the division winner making the playoffs and that's it, and that team maybe not even needing 90 wins.  And that team will almost certainly be either Minnesota or Cleveland.

Kansas City seems committed to its rebuild, but already has the foundation for a future led by Bobby Witt Jr.  The White Sox were expected to be good last year, but weren't.  This season, the expectations are much lower.  In fact, they're not expected to be any good at all.  As for the Tigers, who knows?  They finished third last season and are better than the Royals and White Sox.  But can they finish in front of both the Twins and Guardians, too?

It's because of how mediocre the AL Central as a whole is that I think this division will be completely wide open.  On paper, Minnesota is the best team, but Cleveland should have the best pitching, and that could be enough to be the difference.  Or maybe one of the other three teams will surprise.  Doubtful, but not entirely out of the question either.

So, really, the AL Central is a crapshoot.  Which should actually make for a pretty tight division race.  Whether it's Minnesota or Cleveland, I don't see either one running away with the division the way the Guardians did in 2022 or the Twins did last year.  I'm really expecting it to be a one- or two-game difference between winning the division (and the 3-seed in the AL playoffs) and staying home in October.

1. Minnesota Twins: Last season, the Twins didn't just won the division, they snapped their playoff losing streak!  Minnesota even advanced to the Division Series!  And they did it with Sonny Gray pitching at a Cy Young-caliber level.  Gray is now pitching in St. Louis.  So, it's up to Pablo Lopez, who was also very good in his first season with the Twins, to anchor the rotation.  And that pitching staff will really be the key if they're going to repeat as division champions.  Their bullpen is highly suspect, though.

On the offensive side, Carlos Santana has added the Twins to his Immaculate Grid repertoire.  They've also added Manuel Margot in a trade with the Dodgers (who he never actually played for).  The interesting thing about the Margot acquisition is that his best position is center field, where they already have Byron Buxton, who finally displayed that massive talent everyone's long known he has last season.  A healthy Buxton, a healthy Carlos Correa and a healthy Max Kepler, combined with a Santana who's actually healthy and productive, should make for a pretty solid lineup that will score plenty of runs.  Which they may need to.  Especially if the pitching doesn't hold up its end of the bargain.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Carlos Santana-1B, Carlos Correa-SS, Max Kepler-RF, Alex Kirilloff-DH, Royce Lewis-3B, Edouard Julien-2B, Manuel Margot-LF, Ryan Jeffers-C
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Chris Paddack
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 85-77

2. Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland's bread and butter has always been its pitching.  The Guardians' rotation is the strength of the team.  When healthy.  That's a key qualifier.  Last season, their rotation wasn't particularly healthy, which is a big reason why the Twins finished ahead of them.  Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, especially, need to stay healthy.  They also really only need to give them six innings.  Because Cleveland has a lights-out bullpen, headlined by All*Star closer Emmanuel Clase.

They'll need the pitching staff to be the strength of the team, too.  Because Jose Ramirez doesn't have much help in the lineup.  They've got a legit superstar who gives them 30 & 100 every year at third base, but not really much else around him.  If they're in the mix at the deadline, I can see them adding a bat.  Especially since they're relying on a lot of similar hitters.  They've got a lot of leadoff-type guys, but not really much power.  Outside of Ramirez, the only real power threat in the lineup is Josh Naylor, and even he's more of a contact hitter.  Figuring out how to squeeze runs out of this lineup is the biggest challenge for first-time manager Stephen Vogt.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Ramon Laureano-RF, Jose Ramirez-3B, Josh Naylor-1B, Myles Straw-CF, Andres Gimenez-2B, Austin Hedges-C, Will Brennan-DH, Brayan Rocchio-SS
Projected Rotation: Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 82-80

3. Detroit Tigers: Call me crazy, but I really think the Tigers have a shot at making some noise this season.  They're still probably a year or two away from the playoffs, but they also really remind me of last year's Orioles.  This is a team on the rise.  All of the high draft picks they got from those years of not being good are either already in the Majors or close, and they've made some smart free agent additions either as regulars or placeholders until those other guys are ready.  And it may work!

These aren't the Verlander-Scherzer Tigers, though, which is why I'm not sure they break through just yet.  They don't have the pitching of Cleveland.  They're definitely on their way, though, as they officially begin a new era with franchise mainstay Miguel Cabrera now retired.  This is Spencer Torkelson's team now, and he'll be the cornerstone around which they build.  Even if it's not this year, it'll be soon.  Either way, they showed great improvement in 2023, and they should improve even more in 2024.
Projected Lineup: Parker Meadows-CF, Spencer Torkelson-1B, Javier Baez-SS, Mark Canha-LF, Riley Greene-RF, Kerry Carpenter-DH, Gio Urshela-3B, Jake Rogers-C, Colt Keith-2B
Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson
Closer: Andrew Chafin
Projected Record: 77-85

4. Chicago White Sox: For the most part, the projections for the White Sox this season are not very favorable.  They had a pretty rapid fall from a division title in 2021 to 100 losses in 2023 with essentially the same roster.  That roster has now been overhauled significantly, with Tim Anderson the most notable name no longer applying his trade on the South Side.  They also traded ace Dylan Cease to the Padres, so they're clearly closer to rebuild mode than being all-in.

Still, though, I don't think it's possible for the White Sox to be as bad as they were when they completely bottomed out last season.  Don't get me wrong.  They won't be good.  I'm just not sure they'll be as bad as some people are predicting.  They've got too many talented players like Luis Robert Jr. and Yoan Moncada to lose 100 games two years in a row.  They're a long way from the playoffs, but they could surprise.  If everything goes right and everyone stays healthy, I don't think it's crazy to suggest they could finish around .500.  Even if they don't, they aren't as bad as some other teams, so the 100-loss projections seem a bit harsh.
Projected Lineup: Andrew Benintendi-LF, Paul DeJong-SS, Yoan Moncada-3B, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Eloy Jimenez-DH, Nicky Lopez-2B, Dominic Fletcher-RF, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Michael Soroka, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, Nick Nastrini
Closer: Michael Kopech
Projected Record: 73-89

5. Kansas City Royals: Now that Miguel Cabrera is retired, Salvador Perez has become the elder statesman of the AL Central.  He's been through a lot in Kansas City.  He's seen the Royals go from terrible to World Series champions back to terrible.  Now, he's on the tail end of his career, but he can still provide some pop.  So much pop, in fact, that it's very likely he'll be used as the DH on days he doesn't catch.  More importantly, he's a veteran presence in the clubhouse who's ready to hand over the leadership reins to Bobby Witt Jr.

Much like Spencer Torkelson in Detroit, Witt will be the foundation upon which the Royals build their next championship-caliber team.  They are further behind in that process than the Tigers, though.  Whereas Detroit has a lot of homegrown prospects, Kansas City's roster is stocked with lower-priced free agents.  It's simply a fact of life for small-market teams, but it's also not a very encouraging sign.  Is Kansas City the worst team in baseball?  Not by a long shot.  They're not even the worst team in the American League.  And, if the experts are right and my feelings about the White Sox are totally wrong, they might not even be the worst team in the AL Central.  I have trouble finding where the Royals will get wins from, though, so I've still got them at the bottom of the standings.
Projected Lineup: MJ Melendez-LF, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Salvador Perez-C, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Nelson Velasquez-DH, Kyle Isbel-CF, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Maikel Garcia-3B, Adam Frazier-2B
Projected Rotation: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 64-98