MLB 2024 (NL Central)

The NL Central is probably the most unpredictable of the six divisions.  By "unpredictable," I don't mean something weird's gonna happen and somebody will come out of nowhere to be playing in October.  What I do mean is that it's the hardest division to predict.  I can easily see four of the five teams winning the division, and I can just as easily see them each losing 90 games.

Just look at the Cardinals last year.  They were one of the preseason favorites in the division, then went on to have a miserable season!  But would it surprise anybody if they completely turned it around this year and won the division?  Same with the Reds.  Cincinnati's an up-and-coming team.  If they get enough pitching, can they arrive?  The defending division champion Brewers are kind of like Tampa Bay.  They manage to be good every year regardless.  Although, their manager, Craig Counsell is now in Chicago with a Cubs team that can really go either way.  The Cubs making the playoffs wouldn't surprise me at all.  Neither would them finishing well under .500.

So, how will the NL Central play out?  My best guess is that the Brewers will once again do what they do, but the Cardinals will keep it close before Milwaukee wins the division by a game or two.  Even with Counsell at the helm, the Cubs will hover around .500 all season, while Cincinnati doesn't have enough pitching to hang in the race.  As for the Pirates...well, they'll also be there.

There's one other important thing worth noting regarding the NL Central.  While 90ish wins will probably be enough to win the division, it may not be enough for a wild card.  Not with how loaded the East and West are.  So, it's entirely possible that second place in the NL Central gets you absolutely nothing!  Which makes winning the division that much more paramount.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: Everything that could possibly go wrong in St. Louis last season did.  As a result, the Cardinals had their worst year since 1995.  Which also makes them a prime candidate for a rebound in 2024.  The Cardinals and Yankees are probably the two teams that seem most likely to make a complete turnaround after an extremely disappointing season last year.  And the Cardinals sure made moves that will almost certainly help them improve and put 2023 behind them.

Most notably, St. Louis addressed the pitching staff.  They brought in two guys whose teams made the playoffs last year (Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson), as well as a veteran (Lance Lynn) who's pitched for them in the World Series twice.  Three starters with proven track records to join Miles Mikolas in a revamped rotation.  If they can give the Cardinals anywhere near the type of production they have throughout their careers, this could be a playoff team.  Because we all know they're gonna hit.  They've got Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado anchoring the lineup, Willson Contreras can't possibly be as bad as he was last year, and they added another veteran presence with multiple World Series rings in Brandon Crawford (who it'll be weird to not see in a Giants uniform).  Last year, everything went wrong.  If things go right this year, the Cardinals can be a playoff team.
Projected Lineup: Dylan Carlson-CF, Jordan Walker-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Willson Contreras-C, Tommy Edman-SS, Matt Carpenter-DH, Brendan Donovan-LF, Brandon Crawford-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Zack Thompson
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Projected Record: 91-71

1. Milwaukee Brewers: Both Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams will miss the beginning of the season.  Williams is expected to be out a "significant" amount of time.  That could be a devastating blow for a Brewers team that's also missing Corbin Burnes, who was traded to the Orioles.  If there's a team that can weather losses like that to its pitching staff, though, it's Milwaukee.  They're in the race no matter what every year.  Although, this season we'll find out whether that was because of the players or because of Craig Counsell or a combination of both.

I'm also not entirely sold on their lineup.  A lot of unfamiliar names and some veterans looking for a bounce back.  Gary Sanchez, for example, is projected to be their starting DH.  They've also brought in Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of last year and ended up losing his job in the process since the Phillies decided to move Bryce Harper to first base full-time.  Hoskins and William Contreras will need to provide production in the middle of the lineup, and Christian Yelich will have to play like the MVP he once was.  So far in Spring Training, the returns look good.  Can they keep it going throughout the season?  If they can, and you mix in a little Brewer Magic, a playoff berth doesn't seem out of the question at all.
Projected Lineup: Willy Adames-SS, Christian Yelich-LF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, William Contreras-C, Sal Frelick-RF, Jackson Chourio-CF, Gary Sanchez-DH, Joey Ortiz-3B, Brye Turang-2B
Projected Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, Robert Gasser
Closer: Joel Payamps
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)

3. Chicago Cubs: After reviving his career with the Cubs last season, Cody Belliger re-signed.  It took a while for it to happen, but it was the best move for both sides.  Because if he can keep it going and Craig Counsell can work some of that magic he worked year after year in Milwaukee, the Cubs could be a playoff team.  But they've spent a lot on managers before (Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Joe Maddon) and it didn't necessarily work out, so that's definitely an area of potential concern for a team that appears to be in win-now mode.

And they can win now.  That's the craziest thing.  All the pieces are there, and I can see them adding guys at the deadline to make a run for the playoffs.  The lineup is good, but they need Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Co. to stay healthy and productive.  The same goes for the pitching staff.  They scored a big coup in Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga, who slots in after Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks.  They also snagged Hector Neris for the back end of the bullpen.  So, no, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cubs playing in October.  It would require a lot going right, though.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Cody Bellinger-CF, Patrick Wisdom-DH, Christopher Morel-3B, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Michael Busch-1B, Nico Hoerner-2B, Yan Gomes-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto is no longer a member of the Cincinnati Reds.  That's such a weird sentence to write and a crazy thing to even think about, isn't it?  The reason why they moved on from the franchise icon is because they're committed to a youth movement.  And, frankly, I don't blame them.  Because these young guys are good!  And that's why I can actually see the Reds as a sleeper playoff contender.  It's unlikely that they'll get in, but they'll hang around until mid-August and get you thinking about how good this team might be in a year or two.

Cincinnati also has an All*Star closer in Alexis Diaz, who had 37 saves last season.  Getting the ball to Diaz could be a problem, though.  And it's the one thing I think will hold the Reds back.  Their rotation leaves a lot to be desired.  Although, considering how their last Yankees castoff starting pitcher went, Frankie Montas will probably make the All*Star team.  The lineup is set.  The back of the bullpen is set with Diaz.  The starting rotation is the one area the Reds need to address if they're gonna be a playoff team.  I don't think that'll happen this year.  But in 2025 or 2026, it certainly could.
Projected Lineup: Elly De La Cruz-SS, Jonathan India-DH, Spencer Steer-LF, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Christian Encarnacion-Strand-1B, Will Benson-RF, Tyler Stephenson-C, TJ Friedl-CF, Matt McLain-2B
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 74-88

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh still has Mitch Keller and David Bednar to start the season.  The Pirates also still have Bryan Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz.  You have to wonder if they'll all still be in Pittsburgh at season's end.  So is the life for a franchise that produces some really good young talent, only to trade it all away so that other teams can get better, turning those players into draft picks that they turn into new young talent.  And so goes the cycle.  Add Aroldis Chapman to that list, who's looking to do the same thing he did last year and sign a one-year deal with a bad team, then pitch well enough to get himself traded to a contender.  The Pirates knew that's what he was doing when they signed him, so I can't really knock either side for it as long as they're all OK with it.

While this year may not be much different in Pittsburgh, there's reason for the Pirates to be optimistic about the future.  They've actually got some pretty good players in the present, too, and they've added former Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez to give them some left-handed power, as well as Michael A. Taylor to play center field and lead off.  Pittsburgh's actually a great place for young players to get the opportunity to play, and that makes this team fun to watch.  Even if it isn't gonna win a lot of games.
Projected Lineup: Michael A. Taylor-CF, Oneil Cruz-SS, Bryan Reynolds-RF, Rowdy Tellez-1B, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Jack Suwinski-LF, Yasmani Grandal-C, Ji Hwan Bae-2B
Projected Rotation: Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzalez, Bailey Falter, Martin Perez, Quinn Priester
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 65-97