Already Talking Expansion

The powers-that-be at the College Football Playoff just can't help themselves, can they?  The 12-team playoff that they've wanted for years will make its debut this season and they're already talking about expanding it to 14 sooner rather than later.  They want to go to 14 potentially as early as the 2026 season.  Here's a plan--how about you see how it works with 12 first?!

All of this is a direct result of the drastic conference realignment coming up this summer that will see the Big Ten and SEC boast a combined 34 members between the two of them.  Of the 12 teams that played in the New Year's Six bowl games this season, 11 will be in either the SEC or Big Ten next season.  And the only reason it wasn't 12 out of 12 is because Liberty was guaranteed a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion.  So, it goes to figure that the SEC and Big Ten will get the majority of the berths in a 12-team playoff.  They want to make sure of it.  And consolidate their power in the process.

Under the proposed 14-team format, the SEC and Big Ten would each get three guaranteed berths in the playoff, with the ACC and Big 12 each guaranteed two and one spot going to the highest-rated Group of 5 champion.  There would also be three at-large bids.  So, there theoretically could be as many as six SEC or Big Ten teams in the playoff in a given season.  Or, to put it this way, the sixth-best team in the SEC or Big Ten would have a shot at the National Championship.

That's not the kicker, though.  The kicker is that there would only be two first-round byes, which would automatically go to the SEC and Big Ten champions.  So, an undefeated Florida State or Clemson team that's ranked No. 1 in the final CFP rankings would have to play a first-round game, while SEC and Big Ten teams that are ranked below them would not.  That alone is enough of a reason to be skeptical of the 14-team format.

Not to mention the idea of guaranteeing a certain number of berths to each conference.  It stands to reason that the third-place team in a 16-team SEC and an 18-team Big Ten will likely be among the top 13 in the final CFP rankings regardless, but let's, for argument's sake, say they aren't.  There's something fundamentally unfair about teams that are guaranteed a spot simply because of what conference they're in being able to displace a higher-ranked team from another conference.  (That's not exclusive to the third-place team in the SEC and Big Ten, either.  What if the second ACC team isn't ranked in the top 13 and takes a spot away from somebody else?  That would be just as bad.)

It's also worth noting that, while the SEC and Big Ten will almost certainly be the top two conferences, they won't be the only supersized leagues next season.  The collapse of the Pac-12 will also result in the Big 12 having 16 and the ACC with 17.  Yes, the Big 12 is losing its top two teams to the SEC.  I understand that.  But who's to say the league still wouldn't be capable of having multiple Top 10 teams?  And, if Notre Dame or Oregon State is 11-1, that takes away one of the three at-large bids.  (Notre Dame and Oregon State already can't get a first-round bye in the 12-team format.)

Guaranteeing at least two berths to every conference may seem like a fair option, but it would also render the conference championship games completely meaningless.  Both teams would almost certainly get into the playoff win or lose, so, really, all it would determine is their overall seeding.  But, if it's the ACC or Big 12, even that wouldn't matter since the SEC and Big Ten champions would get the only first-round byes.  Being the ACC champion would be no different than finishing third in the SEC!

In the 12-team playoff, meanwhile, the four first-round byes will go to the four highest-ranked conference champions.  Not only is that more than fair, it's an appropriate reward for winning your conference championship (which isn't exactly an easy thing).  But you know that's gonna end up creating just as much controversy when the team that loses the SEC Championship Game (for its first loss of the season) is pissed off it doesn't get a bye.  Or if an undefeated Notre Dame team has to play a first-round game because the Fighting Irish aren't even eligible for a bye since they aren't in a conference.

Coaches, particularly those in the Big 12, don't seem particularly fond of the 14-team playoff proposal.  TCU Head Coach Sonny Dykes (whose team reached the National Championship Game in 2022-23) didn't mince words.  He said it was the equivalent of the NFL giving the Cowboys a first-round bye over the Bengals since Dallas has more fans.  Oklahoma State Head Coach Mike Gundy was just as critical.  He pointed out how asinine the premise even is teams would be guaranteed a first-round bye before the season even starts (potentially at the expense of the No. 1-ranked team).  Gundy made an obvious point that shouldn't even need to be made.  Teams should decide it on the field, with the first-round byes going to the most deserving teams.

Those Big 12 coaches also likely see the writing on the wall, however.  With the way college football works, whatever the SEC and Big Ten want, the SEC and Big Ten ultimately get.  So, as terrible as the idea is on paper and as unfair as it would be in execution, that doesn't matter.  The SEC and Big Ten know that a 14-team playoff where they're guaranteed at least six bids combined (likely more), that's more money for them.  And that's all they care about.  What's best for college football be damned!

Let's not pretend that ESPN doesn't have a vested interest in a 14-team playoff, either.  The College Football Playoff is just as much a TV show as anything else.  That's one of the reasons they went from four teams playing three games to 12 playing 11 games in the first place.  Increasing that number from 12 to 14 means two more first-round games, which means two more games for ESPN to show on television.  And what conference just signed a new TV contract that makes ESPN its exclusive partner?  Oh, that's right!  The SEC!

So, ultimately, it does seem like a 14-team playoff is inevitable.  Which is a shame.  Because it will completely devalue the regular season.  Some might argue that's a good thing, pointing to the NCAA Basketball Tournament as an example of how anybody can win a National Championship (there's also rumblings about wanting to expand the NCAA Basketball Tournament again, but that's a discussion for another day).  However, the fact that every regular season game means so much is also something that makes college football unique, and a 14-team playoff would definitely take away from it.

There's one other point here worth making.  There aren't 14 teams worthy of playing for the National Championship each year.  Even 12 is pushing it.  It had gotten to the point where four was a little too exclusive, though, so going to 12 did make sense.  But the fact that they're already talking about expanding beyond 12 when they haven't even seen it in action is completely asinine.  Which is why it doesn't surprise me that they are.

While most would agree that expanding the playoff to 12 teams was in the best interest of college football, very few would argue that going from 12 to 14 is.  Those in favor of it, in fact, are pretty much limited to two conferences.  Which just so happen to be the two conferences who stand to benefit the most from it.  That doesn't sound like a coincidence to me.