MLB 2024 (AL East)

Last season, three AL East teams made the playoffs.  This season, it's likely that the division will have three playoff teams again.  As for which three, that's anybody's guess.  Because an argument could be made for every team except Boston in the deepest division in Baseball.  And the Red Sox aren't exactly Oakland/Colorado level bad.  In fact, they'll probably have a better record than a lot of third-place teams.

Each of the other four has legitimate playoff hopes.  Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto all made the playoffs last season and combined to win zero games.  The Rays and Orioles were the Rangers' first two victims, while the Blue Jays got swept by the Twins in the Wild Card Series.  The three of them had as many playoff wins as the Yankees, who are coming off their worst season in three decades.

That result obviously did not sit well with the Yankees.  It also figures to be a one-year aberration.  They sought to make sure of that during the offseason.  Whether it worked or not is the big question.  Because the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays aren't exactly going anywhere.  So, if you throw the Yankees back in the mix, you've got four teams in the mix for the division title.  Although, the Blue Jays are a step behind the others, so it's more like three.

What's crazy is that someone has to finish fourth in this division.  And, unless somebody ends up having a really down year, whoever that is will likely finish well above .500.  It also seems likely that they'll only be a few games behind the first-place team.  I expect it to be crowded at the top in the AL East.  No one will run away with it.  And it really could be any of three teams, all of whom should be playing in October.

1. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore had the best record in the American League last season and has a young core that all but assures they'll be around for at least the next few years.  And I wouldn't be surprised if one of their new owner's first orders of business is to lock up Rutschman & Henderson long-term.  The Orioles have more guys coming, too.  That's to go with the other additions they've made.  They took a team that won 101 games last year and made it better.

Their biggest offseason coup was a trade with Milwaukee that brought them a legitimate ace in former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.  Bonus points for snagging him before the Yankees, who were also in on Burnes, could.  They also signed Craig Kimbrel to be their new closer, which they needed with an injured Felix Bautista likely to miss the entire season.  Then you throw in that loaded lineup stocked with young talent, and it wouldn't surprise anybody to see the Orioles finish atop the AL East again.  Except this time, people will see it coming.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschman-C, Anthony Santander-RF, Austin Hays-LF, Ryan O'Hearn-DH, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Ramon Urias-3B, Jordan Westburg-2B
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Tyler Wells
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 92-70

2. New York Yankees: Not one single person within the organization or outside thinks the Yankees' 2023 season was acceptable.  So, Brian Cashman went out and immediately addressed last season's biggest problem--the lineup.  The Yankees struck early, landing Juan Soto in a massive trade with the Padres.  That trade also brought them Trent Grisham, while they also signed Alex Verdugo as a free agent.  Suddenly, they had an entirely new outfield.  And, get this, they got left-handed hitters!  Imagine that!  Left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium!  What a concept!

While they were able to significantly improve the lineup (even with DJ LeMahieu starting the season on the IL), they missed out on pretty much every rotation upgrade they sought.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed elsewhere, and trade targets Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease ended up in Baltimore and San Diego, respectively.  As a result, the only rotation upgrade they were able to make was Marcus Stroman, and that rotation depth will be tested early with Gerrit Cole injured.  And let's see how many relievers they end up going through between now and the end of the season.  Even still, they should be able to put last year's disaster behind them and return to the postseason.
Projected Lineup: Gleyber Torres-2B, Juan Soto-RF, Aaron Judge-CF, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Alex Verdugo-LF, Jose Trevino-C, Anthony Volpe-SS, Oswaldo Cabrera-3B
Projected Rotation: Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil
Closer: Clay Holmes
Projected Record: 90-72 (Wild Card)

3. Tampa Bay Rays: No matter what, the Rays are always there at the end of the season.  Tampa Bay never has the best team on paper.  That never matters.  They end up winning 90 games and making the playoffs anyway.  Which is a testament both to the organization's player development department and manager Kevin Cash, who always seems to push the right buttons and get the most out of his team.  So, even if they aren't as "good" as the Orioles and Yankees, there isn't a single person who doesn't think the Rays will be right there with them all season.

I fully expect this even though they traded ace Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers (along with Manuel Margot, who was then shipped to the Twins).  And they added to their already strong bullpen by bringing in Phil Maton from Houston.  They also snagged Amed Rosario, a career infielder who they'll be inserting as their everyday right fielder.  The lineup is the one area where I question if they'll be able to keep pace with the Orioles and Yankees, though.  Or the Blue Jays for that matter.  It's entirely possible that Tampa Bay doesn't get enough hitting and ends up finishing fourth.  But, again.  This is the Rays we're talking about.  They always find a way.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-1B, Brandon Lowe-2B, Randy Arozarena-LF, Isaac Paredes-3B, Harold Ramirez-DH, Amed Rosario-RF, Jose Caballero-SS, Jose Siri-CF, Rene Pinto-C
Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Tyler Alexander, Ryan Pepiot
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card)

4. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto's gonna hit.  We know that much.  That is if everybody stays healthy and productive, of course.  That's always a key when you have a team full of mashers.  They made no attempt to re-sign Matt Chapman, instead bringing in Justin Turner to be their new DH.  Signing a DH creates its own problems, though, so Turner will have to play third base every once in a while if they want to give Vlad Guerrero Jr. or George Springer a DH day or if they want to keep Alejandro Kirk's bat in the lineup on the days Danny Jansen catches.

If they get a bounce back from Alek Manoah, their rotation could actually be pretty solid.  I'd even argue that it might be the best in the division while the Yankees are without Cole.  They've got four solid starters in Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.  The bullpen is a question mark, but closer Jordan Romano isn't.  That's a lot they've got going for them.  If the Blue Jays played in the AL Central, they'd probably be the favorites.  In the AL East, though, they might only be the fourth-best team.  This division is THAT competitive!
Projected Lineup: George Springer-RF, Bo Bichette-SS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Justin Turner-DH, Daulton Varsho-LF, Cavan Biggio-2B, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-3B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 87-75

5. Boston Red Sox: It's weird to call the Red Sox the worst team in the division, but that's absolutely the case.  They're just not on the same level as the other four teams.  Simply put, they don't have the pitching to hang with them.  They traded Chris Sale to Atlanta and replaced him with Lucas Giolito, looking to get a bounce back from him from him after a disappointing 2023 in which he pitched for three different teams.  Except Giolito had Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season, making their rotation once again a major weakness.

And, frankly, their lineup isn't much to write home about, either.  They've got Rafael Devers locked in for the next decade, but they don't really have much around him.  It's not the typical Red Sox lineup you'd think of.  And that could end up being their biggest problem.  I just don't see them scoring many runs.  Which is bad enough when you consider the other teams in their division, but is made even worse when you look at how shaky their pitching staff is.  They've got a great back end of the bullpen in Liam Hendriks and Kenley Jansen, so they're in good shape if they're ahead after seven.  How often will that be, though?
Projected Lineup: Ceddanne Rafaela-CF, Trevor Story-2B, Rafael Devers-3B, Triston Casas-1B, Masataka Yoshida-DH, Jarren Duran-LF, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Emmanuel Valdez-2B, Connor Wong-C
Projected Rotation: Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 79-83