Where They Should Go

Before Thanksgiving, baseball's offseason got underway in earnest with the first major moves.  The Phillies re-signed ace Aaron Nola, but that's been it so far on the free agent front.  And there's only been one noteworthy trade thus far--third baseman Eugenio Suarez going from the Mariners to the Diamondbacks.  That'll all change soon, though.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been posted, and he'll start meeting with teams next week.  It's been reported that nearly half of Major League Baseball has already reached out to his representatives, so it'll be interesting to see how many teams (and which ones) he ends up meeting with.  You'd have to figure all of the usual suspects (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox) will be involved.  Will he end up with one of them?  Or somewhere else?

Yamamoto's the most sought-after pitching prize of this offseason, and other pitchers may have to wait until he signs before they can.  Not only does it seem like Yamamoto will set the market, teams will have to pivot to their Plans B and C if they don't get him.  Yamamoto's not the only free agent available this winter, of course.  He's not even the biggest name out there.  That would be Shohei Ohtani, who'll probably command at least $40 million a year even though he won't be able to pitch next season.

While Ohtani is the obvious headliner, there are plenty of other impact players who'll be available as free agents this winter.  Some positions have a glut of free agents, giving teams options.  Others not so much.  Here's a position-by-position list of the best available name (that isn't Ohtani) and the teams that might be a good fit for each of them:

Catcher: Mitch Garver-There are a lot of available free-agent catchers, but none of them are really impact guys.  Mitch Garver won a ring as the Rangers' DH, and the prevailing thought is that he'll become a full-time DH eventually.  I don't think that'll happen yet, though.  I can see Garver going to somebody like the White Sox or even staying in Texas.

1st Base: Rhys Hoskins-The Phillies sure threw a curve ball when they announced that they were making Bryce Harper their regular first baseman, thus making Hoskins a free agent.  He may have to take a one-year deal because he missed all of last season, but he's also only 31 and a proven power bat, which both work in his favor.  If San Francisco misses out on Bellinger, Hoskins would be a perfect fit for the Giants.

2nd Base: Elvis Andrus-Second base is by far the weakest position in free agency this year.  Which partially explains the trade chatter surrounding players like Gleyber Torres.  The best free agent second baseman available might be Elvis Andrus, who's no longer anywhere near the type of player he was during his prime in Texas.  I think the most likely scenario is he signs a one-year deal with a small-market or non-contending team hoping to flip him to a contender at the deadline.  Somebody like Washington.

Shortstop: Tim Anderson-One of the most surprising non-tenders was Tim Anderson.  Which means a White Sox reunion is unlikely.  So, somebody's getting a quality leadoff hitter who's looking for a bounce-back year.  It could be a situation similar to Cody Bellinger with the Cubs last season.  You know who needs both a shortstop and a leadoff hitter?  St. Louis.

3rd Base: Matt Chapman-Matt Chapman has been linked to so many teams that I've lost count.  There are plenty of people who think he's a perfect fit for the Yankees.  I don't agree.  You know where he is a perfect fit?  On a Seattle team that just opened up third base in the Suarez trade.

Left Field: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-Interestingly, the top two free agent left fielders, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, were both on the Diamondbacks' World Series roster.  Pham is more of a DH, while Gurriel still has plenty of value as an outfielder.  Now that Philadelphia has committed to Harper at first base, that means they can move Kyle Schwarber primarily into the DH role, freeing up left field for somebody like Gurriel.

Center Field: Cody Bellinger-Returning to the Cubs is definitely a possibility.  Either way, I suspect we'll see a bidding war for Cody Bellinger's services.  Ultimately, I think it comes down to three--the Cubs, Yankees and Giants.  Could someone else enter the mix?  Sure.  But, after their dumpster fire of a 2023 season, the Yankees will likely be all-in on Bellinger and will probably overspend to get him (especially if they don't get Yamamoto).

Right Field: Teoscar Hernandez-When the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to Seattle last winter, I loved the trade for both Hernandez and the Mariners.  He played 160 games, got 600 at-bats for the first time, and put up a .258/26/93 slash line.  Now he's a free agent who'll command a pretty sizeable multi-year deal.  The White Sox were really missing that power bat last season after Jose Abreu left for Houston.  Hernandez would be a perfect replacement.

DH: J.D. Martinez-Martinez is an interesting case.  He's pretty much exclusively a DH at this point, only playing a handful of innings in the outfield last season.  In LA, that worked out.  There won't be DH at bats available if the Dodgers sign Ohtani, though, which would mean Martinez heads elsewhere (to a team that's OK with having a dedicated DH).  Somebody will sign him, though.  He's too good a middle-of-the-order hitter.  My guess is he goes to a team like the Mets.

Starting Pitcher: Blake Snell-Coming off his second career Cy Young, Snell's gonna have plenty of suitors.  It's possible he stays in San Diego, but the Padres may be looking to cut salary, which means he'll likely get a better offer elsewhere.  Especially from a team that feels they're just one starting pitcher away.  Like that team a little bit north of San Diego that's in the Padres' division and wears blue.  Even if they land Ohtani, I can definitely see the Dodgers finding money in the budget to also add Snell.

Reliever: Josh Hader-An elite, 30-year-old closer?  Yeah, Hader's gonna make some money!  In fact, with the value being placed on the back end of the bullpen and teams stockpiling relievers, he may get an offer that's too good to resist from somebody who wants him to be a setup man.  Hader has more value as a closer, so a team that's looking for a closer will snag him.  It could be the Dodgers, but I think the Cubs are more likely.

That list also doesn't include players who are likely to be traded.  Juan Soto is the most prominent name on the trade block, but he almost certainly isn't the only one.  And, when you throw the trades in, that's when things get really interesting.