2023 Picks, Week 10

You know, I've gotta give the NFL credit for something.  They are committed.  No matter how many times they have an opportunity to flex bad teams out of prime time, which is the entire point of flex scheduling, they simply won't do it.  In fact, it seems like they keep the original game just to spite people, knowing they'll watch it anyway.  How else can you explain the abundance of the Bears and the Raiders in prime time?  This week, they're joined in prime time by the Broncos, since they apparently didn't learn that lesson last year.

Thursday Night: Carolina (Loss)

Colts (4-5) vs Patriots (2-7): Indianapolis-Game No. 5 of the International Series and Game No. 2 in Germany pits the Colts against the Patriots.  It's nowhere near as good as last week's Dolphins-Chiefs matchup, but there was little chance of that happening regardless of who the two teams were.  This, of course, used to be THE matchup in the AFC when it was Manning vs. Brady.  Neither team is anywhere near the level of those glory days right now.  The Colts are less bad, though, so I'm going with them.

Texans (4-4) at Bengals (5-3): Cincinnati-The Bengals sure have recovered from that brutal start.  They've won four straight, the last three against playoff teams from last season, and are currently holding down a wild card spot.  The Texans, meanwhile, won what might've been the NFL's game of the year so far last week.  They've alternated wins and losses, so they really do seem to be a different team every week.  Last week was good.  Which probably means this week will be bad.

Saints (5-4) at Vikings (5-4): Minnesota-After a slow start, the Vikings have definitely found their groove.  They've won four straight, which includes a victory last week after they lost Kurt Cousins for the year.  As a result, they're very much in the playoff conversation.  Winning the NFC North is actually conceivable, too.  Winning the division is also very conceivable for New Orleans in a weak NFC South, which will still be the case even after the Saints fall to 5-5.

Packers (3-5) at Steelers (5-3): Pittsburgh-Crazy as it sounds, the Steelers hold the three-way tiebreaker with the Browns and Bengals, so they're the top AFC wild card team right now.  That's certainly not what I expected at midseason.  But, it's Mike Tomlin, so should we really be surprised?  Anyway, they've got a great chance of making that 6-3 against the Packers, who, how do I put this mildly?, have struggled in Year 1 After Aaron.  They did beat the Rams, though, so maybe that was the start of something.

Titans (3-5) at Buccaneers (3-5): Tampa Bay-Both of these teams could use a win.  Tampa Bay has lost four straight after starting 3-1, but the last three of those have been by a combined 12 points.  So, they're right there pretty much every week.  The Titans got that win over Atlanta, then went to Pittsburgh five days later and lost.  As a result, they head into this game with identical 3-5 records.  The Bucs have a much better chance of jumping back into the division race at 4-5.

49ers (5-3) at Jaguars (6-2): San Francisco-Remember when the 49ers were 5-0 and everybody thought they were the best team in football?  Yeah, that was a month ago!  San Francisco lost three straight heading into its bye, and things won't get much easier in Jacksonville.  The Jaguars come off their bye riding a five-game winning streak and have a two-game lead in the AFC South.  This should be a tight one (that, frankly, should've been flexed into Sunday night instead of Jets-Raiders).  I'm giving the slight edge to the 49ers.

Browns (5-3) at Ravens (7-2): Baltimore-As things currently stand, all four AFC North teams would be in the playoffs.  While I don't think that'll still be the case at the end of the season, they'll all be in contention for the rest of the year.  Which makes division games doubly important.  Fortunately for the Ravens, they're two clear of the field.  Which means Baltimore can further distance itself this week.  They've got two home division games in five days against the Browns and Bengals.  So, we'll know by Friday if they have the inside track on the division crown or not.

Falcons (4-5) at Cardinals (1-8): Atlanta-Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals this week.  It's obviously way too late for him to save Arizona's season, but this is at least his chance to save his job since the Cardinals will presumably have a very high draft pick and are a definite contender for No. 1 overall.  The Falcons, meanwhile, need to keep taking advantage of their winnable games.  Because as long as they hover around .500, that'll be enough to stay near the top of the NFC South standings.

Lions (6-2) at Chargers (4-4): Detroit-Don't look now, but here come the Chargers.  They've won two in a row, looked impressive in both, and are now back at .500 on the season.  Those two games were against the Bears and Jets, though.  The Lions are a completely different caliber of opponent.  This one will be a challenge.  Detroit has been proving all season that the hype was completely justified.  Can you say 7-2 Lions?

Giants (2-7) at Cowboys (5-3): Dallas-If this year wasn't already going bad enough for the Giants, their starting quarterback is now an undrafted rookie.  Although, Tommy DeVito is definitely a name that's pretty common in Northern New Jersey, so in that regard, he'll fit right in.  This is also probably the last we've seen of Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, since they'll now almost certainly draft a quarterback in April.  Anyway, as you can tell, I don't think very highly of their chances for the rest of the season.  Especially this week.  They're the lowest-scoring team in the NFL and got shut out the first time they played the Cowboys.

Commanders (4-5) at Seahawks (5-3): Seattle-Seattle was sitting pretty, then went to Baltimore and got absolutely thumped last week!  Was it a one-game glitch or did the Ravens expose something?  I think it's more likely they just had a bad game.  It's also important to note that they're back at home this week.  The 12th Man is a very valuable advantage for the Seahawks.  One they will fully exploit against Washington.

Jets (4-4) at Raiders (4-5): Las Vegas-Well, I sure was wrong about the Raiders' first game under Antonio Pierce.  It might've been the fact that they were playing the Giants, but they looked like a completely different team!  I'm not saying it's gonna last, but for a week anyway, the coaching change looked like a stroke of genius!  Can they keep it up as Met Life Stadium's other tenant pays a visit to Sin City?  There's no reason to think they won't.

Broncos (3-5) at Bills (5-4): Buffalo-For a team that was a popular Super Bowl pick in the preseason, the Bills sure haven't looked like it recently.  They needed a late touchdown to beat the Giants, lost to the Patriots, weren't great against Tampa, then lost again in Cincinnati on Sunday night.  As a result, they're currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in.  They've still got Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Miami left (as well as division games against Jets and Patriots teams they already lost to this season).  So, beating Denver is absolutely imperative.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 85-52