The Year's Best Rookies

Throughout the playoffs and World Series, pretty much every time Corbin Carroll came up to bat, he was referred to as the "presumptive NL Rookie of the Year."  I mean, we've known that since like July, but it's not official until it's official.  So, the suspense has pretty much been taken out.  He won't just be the NL Rookie of the Year, it'll likely be unanimous.

That's the only problem with these hour-long, televised announcements on MLB Network.  They have to stretch it out and talk about the other two guys like there's actually a chance they might win, only to anticlimactically tell us something we've all already known for weeks.  I mean, I get why they do it and have no problem with it.  It's just better if there's some uncertainty about who'll win.

So, if you were holding out hope that James Outman or Kodai Senga might pull off the upset, sorry, neither of them won.  One of them did finish second, though.  And, frankly, I have no idea which one it was.  Senga made the All*Star team in his first season after coming over from Japan and was essentially the only starting pitcher the Mets had left after they traded Verlander and Scherzer.  Outman, meanwhile, took over the Dodgers' center field job from Cody Bellinger and ended up with 20 homers and 15 steals.

There are a few other National League rookies worthy of being in the discussion, too.  Nolan Jones of the Rockies nearly hit .300 and had 20 homers.  Spencer Steer of the Reds, meanwhile, is a big reason why Cincinnati decided to move on from Joey Votto.  He played 156 games and led all NL rookies with 86 RBIs.  He also had more doubles and nearly as many home runs as Carroll.  And let's not forget Outman's Dodgers teammate Bobby Miller.  He was called up at the end of May and helped solidify a rotation that was decimated by injuries, going 11-4 in 22 starts.

None of them compare to Corbin Carroll, though.  He had a cup of coffee last September, and that was a sign to a lot of people that the Diamondbacks were capable of turning it around this season.  Well, they were right about both Arizona and Carroll.  He became the first rookie in MLB history with 20-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases, and he also had 10 triples!  Throw in his elite defense at multiple outfield positions, and it's easy to see why he'll be the runaway (likely unanimous) winner.

What's really amazing about Carroll, though, actually has nothing to do with him as a player.  The Diamondbacks have been around for 25 years, but have never had a Rookie of the Year.  They're the only team in the Majors that hasn't.  Until now.  Corbin Carroll will be the first.  (The Diamondbacks will become the third team with only one, joining the Pirates and Rockies.)

As for how I think the voting will probably go, I think Senga was second and Outman finished third.  That's not how I would've voted, though.  I'd obviously have Carroll No. 1.  And I'd have Senga No. 2.  But the third spot on my ballot doesn't go to Outman.  It goes to Steer.

Over in the American League, there's slightly more suspense.  I say slightly only because I don't think they winner is as obvious as Carroll.  I actually think this is a bit of a two-horse race between Gunnar Henderson and Triston Casas.  Henderson should be the clear favorite, though.

Last year, Adley Rutschman established himself as the Orioles' franchise player, and he was joined in September by Henderson--who replaced him as Baltimore's top prospect.  It was clear from that one month that Henderson not only wasn't going back to the Minors, but that he'd be a favorite for Rookie of the Year this season.  And he certainly lived up to the hype, leading all AL rookies in home runs, RBIs and triples, and finishing second in doubles and hits.  He also scored 100 runs, which ranked sixth in the entire American League.

While I think Henderson should be the runaway winner, it may not be unanimous like in the National League.  That's because an argument could definitely be made for Casas.  He was hitting .128 at the end of April, yet ended up with a .263 batting average.  Casas also walked a lot, and he finished with an on-base percentage of .367, and his 24 home runs trailed only Henderson among AL rookies.  However, his season ended in mid-September, which is why I can't give him the nod.

The third finalist is Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee.  I don't know how the Guardians keep turning out starting pitchers, but they ended up with a rotation made up entirely of rookies by June.  Bibee ended up anchoring that rotation, making 25 starts and tossing 142 innings.  He finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and had a 10-4 record.  Cleveland didn't make the playoffs, but Bibee's a big reason why they stayed in contention until September.

Those three were the top finishers, but they were far from the only rookies in the American League worthy of being in the discussion.  Casas, frankly, isn't even the only Red Sox player worthy of mention.  Masataka Yoshida led all AL rookies with 155 hits, 33 doubles and a .289 batting average.  Yainer Diaz emerged as the Astros' catcher of the future.  And, had he not broken his thumb in August and missed six weeks, we'd probably be talking about Josh Jung as a co-favorite along with Henderson.  Jung got a World Series ring, though, so he likely won't be too upset about not being the Rookie of the Year.

It seems pretty clear to me who this season's American League Rookie of the Year is, though.  The Orioles were unexpectedly good last season, then finished with the best record in the AL this year.  Gunnar Henderson's emergence as a regular in the lineup was a big reason why.  His season will be rewarded with the AL Rookie of the Year award.

I'm glad I'm not actually a voter for AL Rookie of the Year.  Because I'm not sure who I'd put behind Henderson.  But, since I've got to go with somebody, I'll say Casas 2 and Bibee 3, with Yoshida a very close fourth.  Although, a full year of Josh Jung might've resulted in a very different conversation.